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Any Other Bets: EFL tips for Saturday 7 September
Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
1.5pt Barrow to beat Swindon (15:00) and under 3.5 goals at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Charlton and Rotherham (15:00) to draw at 12/5 (Coral/Ladbrokes)
1pt No goalscorer in Charlton vs Rotherham at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Czechia most corners vs Georgia (17:00) at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Germany -3 corner handicap vs Hungary (19:45) at evens (bet365)
Germany vs Hungary
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/4 | Draw 17/4 | Away 15/2
Jake Osgathorpe
Germany were much better at the Euros than I expected, losing in extra-time to Spain in the quarters. They played Hungary in the group stage, winning comfortably, and I suspect we'll see something similar here.
What did stand out when watching Germany under Julen Nagelsmann is the number of corners his side win. Since his appointment, they have won 70 corners in nine matches, an average of 7.8 per game, and that features three games against top nations (Spain, France, Netherlands).
I think backing GERMANY -3 CORNER HANDICAP looks appealing at even money as they take on a Hungary side who will happily sit deep and aim to play on the counter attack.
When these two met in the Euros, Germany won the corner count 11-7, covering the handicap (just, admittedly), but the dynamic was strange in that Hungary needed to play for a result.
In Nagelsmann's nine games in charge, the Germans have covered this handicap seven times. Their style allows them to get into great wide positions, aiming to get to the by-line, but importantly, dominate the ball to limit opponent chances.
Earlier selections...
Georgia vs Czechia
- Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 2/1 | Draw 9/4 | Away 23/20
Jake Osgathorpe
Georgia and Czechia do battle again, just a few months after they went head-to-head in the Euro 2024 group stage.
That competition saw the Georgians qualify and be eliminated by eventual winners Spain in the round of 16, while Czechia finished bottom the group.
Czechia were very unfortunate not to win the last meeting. They had 27 shots to Georgia's five, racked up 3.07 xG to 1.11 and won 11 corners to 5.
It's that latter point that I think leads to a betting angle, with CZECHIA TO WIN MOST CORNERS available at 5/6.
No matter the opponent, Georgia really struggle to win the corner count. They lost this battle in three of four Euros games, drawing it against Turkey (5-5), and in total they conceded 40 corners and won 14.
Across the 10 games in Euro qualifying and play-offs, they lost the corner battle seven times, winning it only once against Luxembourg (2-0). Cyprus, the side who finished bottom of their group, won the corner battle in both head-to-heads.
Czechia rely on set-pieces to create their chances, so it's no surprise they have won the most corners in five of their last eight, losing only to Portugal (13-0) at the Euros.
Despite how both sides fared at Euro 2024, I still think Czechia are a much better side than Georgia, and should dominate the ball and territory here, which should lead to more corners.
Barrow vs Swindon
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 29/10
Joe Townsend
BARROW's terrible end to last season, taking two points from their final eight matches, cost them a place in the Sky Bet League Two play-offs and Pete Wild his job. Under Stephen Clemence they seem to have returned to their normal selves with three wins and one defeat, beating Crewe and thumping Port Vale 4-0 at home, as well as beating Vale and Championship side Derby in the Carabao Cup to set up a trip to Chelsea in round three.
Swindon have drawn twice and lost twice as well as losing both matches in the EFL Cup and Trophy. They struggled for almost all of last season, only saved from relegation by a fast start inspired by Bradford loanee Jake Young, who was recalled in January. Since taking 19 points from their opening nine games of 2023/24 (2.1 points per game) they've taken 37 from their next 41 (0.9 ppg).
Mark Kennedy replaced Gavin Gunning in the summer and there are signs of him turning things round at the back, with Swindon putting up the eighth best defensive underlying numbers in League Two so far this season, but their attack has been the second worst.
Barrow have been the best defensive team in the division, conceding just once and allowing only 0.45 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
According to the data, they are the third worst attacking team based on xGF (0.57 per game) though, which is why combining a BARROW WIN and UNDER 3.5 GOALS is advised.
Charlton vs Rotherham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 2/1
Joe Townsend
Charlton may have lost at Reading last time out, but they won their first three League One games, including an impressive home victory over Bolton. The Addicks have conceded only two goals in four games, keeping three clean sheets, a marked improvement on Nathan Jones' 16 matches in charge last season where only two clean sheets were registered.
Overall, their record since Jones took charge is excellent (W7 D10 L3) with Charlton unbeaten at home (W4 D5) under the former Luton boss. Concerns remain in attack however, with just four goals scored and a struggle to create opportunities.
Rotherham edged 10-man Huddersfield last weekend for their first win of the season in a feisty Yorkshire derby that saw plenty of late drama.
Town took the lead moments after substitute Danny Ward was sent off, only for Rotherham to immediately equalise via a 74th-minute penalty before snatching victory through Mallik Wilks' stoppage-time goal; Huddersfield boss Michael Duff was shown a red card after the full-time whistle to round off a madcap finish.
Those goals were the Millers' first in the league this season, with defeats to nil at Exeter and Wycombe, and a goalless draw at home against Bristol Rovers.
With the DRAW priced as the 12/5 outsider it feels worth backing in this contest, as does NO GOALSCORER at a hefty 9/1 given the reliance of Jones' teams on defence, and both these teams' struggles in attack.
Under 0.5 goals or a 0-0 correct scoreline aren't priced any bigger, and no goalscorer gives us the added security of paying out should an own goal be scored.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (16/08/24)
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