Football betting tips: Wednesday best bets
1.5pts Under 2.5 goals in Feyenoord vs Inter (17:45) at 57/50 (Unibet)
0.5pt Under 1.5 goals in Feyenoord vs Inter (17:45) at 7/2 (Unibet)
2pts Robert Lewandowski to score anytime in Benfica vs Barcelona (20:00) at 57/50 (Unibet)
1pt Evangelos Pavlidis to score anytime in Benfica vs Barcelona (20:00) at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Feyenoord vs Inter
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Home 21/4 | Draw 10/3 | Away 4/9
Jake Osgathorpe
Robin van Persie took charge of his first game as Feyenoord boss last weekend and it wasn't a great start, drawing 0-0 at home to bottom half Nijmegen.
It doesn't get any easier either, with Inter in town. The Dutch side knocked out Inter's city rivals Milan in the last round, but this will be a much tougher test.
Simply put, that's because the blue team of Milan is better than the red team currently, and it's not close.
Simone Inzaghi's side are exptionally strong defensively, conceding just one goal in eight league phase games, and are surgical rather than explosive in attack, netting just 11 in those eight matches.
So, I see no reason why UNDER 2.5 GOALS is the outsider in this first leg, and we should back it accordingly.
Goals have dried up for Feyenoord, netting just four times in their last five games, and they will be starved of scoring opportunities on Wednesday.
Along with conceding just once in the UCL, Inter have faced just nine big chances across eight outings, and the most impressive stat is that every shot they are facing has an average xG of just 0.06. That's incredibly low and explains wht they've kept seven clean sheets.
Given seven of Inter's 11 goals came in two games - a 4-0 success over a poor Crvena Zvezda team and a 3-0 win over 10-man Monaco, both at home - it makes sense to chance UNDER 1.5 GOALS here too.
If we take away those two games Inter scored just four times in the other six, highlighting how they aren't a swashbuckling attacking side.
This bet that has landed in six of Inter's eight UCL games, and clicked in Feyenoord's first leg against Milan in the play-off round.
Benfica vs Barcelona
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Home 4/6 | Draw 14/5 | Away 19/5
Jake Osgathorpe
The last time these two sides met in this competition it delivered the game of the season, with Barcelona scoring with the last kick of the game to win 5-4 in Lisbon.
We should expect a similar sort of game, with neither team really capable of adopting a defence-first approach - and neither wanting to.
Both sides are gung-ho attacking teams who aim to outscore their opponents, which makes sense given both defences are vulnerable.
So with goals on the agenda, ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI's odds-against price TO SCORE ANYTIME makes plenty of appeal.
The Pole has been in scintillating form this season, scoring 34 goals in 36 appearances across all competitions, netting nine in eight Champions League games.
He's found the net in seven of his last nine outings, including a brace in the 5-4 win in this very stadium back in January.
Data-wise, across league and Champions League action this season he's averaging a whopping 1.02 xG per 90, so will absolutely have ample opportunity to score on Wednesday.
Most bookies have him priced at 3/4 or shorter which looks about right, with anything above 4/5 representing value in my eyes.
While not exactly reinventing the wheel, the price about Benfica's starting striker VANGELIS PAVLIDIS TO SCORE ANYTIME also look large.
The Greek international has netted seven times in the Champions League this season, scoring in all of Benfica's last four games in this competition, including a hat-trick in the 5-4 game between the sides in the league phase.
In fact, he's found the net in all of his last six starts, usually being rotated in league matches for these midweek European games.
His xG per 90 in this competition is nearly as good as Lewandowski's, averaging 0.91, so like the Pole he will more than likely be on the end of plenty of chances at the Estadio da Luz.
Add in the importance of the Portuguese side taking a lead back to Spain, and we should see them on the front foot, enhancing the possibility of a Pavlidis goal. The price of 9/4 is bonkers, too.
Odds correct at 1810 GMT (04/03/25)
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