Football betting tips: EFL & Champions League
1pt Japhet Tanganga to score anytime in Millwall vs Plymouth (19:45) at 14/1 (General)
1pt Both teams to score in Man City vs Sparta Prague at 2/1 (Betway)
1.5pts Emmanuel Latte Lath to score anytime in Middlesbrough vs Sheff Utd at 12/5 (Unibet)
1pt Latte Lath to score first in Middlesbrough vs Sheff Utd at 13/2 (Unibet)
1pt No first goalscorer in Middlesbrough vs Sheff Utd at 10/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
*Kick-off 20:00 if not otherwise stated
Already advised:
1pt Jonathan Tah to score anytime in Brest vs Bayer Leverkusen (17:45) at 10/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Middlesbrough vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 1/1 | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/5
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
If at first you don’t succeed…
This will be the third tout of NO FIRST GOALSCORER in a game involving Sheffield United.
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi never gave the tip a chance when Sheffield United hosted Luton with the Palace loanee netting the first of his brace on 12 minutes.
The bet went a lot closer on Friday in the Blades' trip to Elland Road where the deadlock was not broken until the 69th minute when Pascal Struijk’s shin clinically dispatched a nicely worked corner routine.
The theory still stands though.
The Blades have conceded just five goals this season and have not clicked offensively. Another stalemate is brewing.
Their defence is one of the best in the division and they are winning games thanks to individual quality or defensive errors. Sandwiched between a goalless draw at Portsmouth and defeat at Leeds, the Blades beat both Swansea and Derby 1-0 via an own goal and a direct free-kick respectively.
Wednesday's opponents Middlesbrough have serious offensive shortcomings. Boro rank second for ‘big chances’ missed (xG greater than 0.30) with 20 and top the xG charts with a total of 18.3 but have only scored 10 times.
So, what do you get when you combine one of the most wasteful attacks in the division with one of the best defences?
Middlesbrough vs Sheffield United
Joe Townsend
Well this is awkward... I come to add my sole selection for Wednesday's column and it directly opposes Jimmy. Here goes.
Whether brave, stupid or just plain stubborn, having backed EMMANUEL LATTE LATH at 41/20 TO SCORE ANYTIME against Bristol City, I'm doubling down by taking that same selection again at 12/5 as well as the 13/2 for him TO SCORE FIRST.
It was pretty painful watching the Middlesbrough striker miss chance after chance on Saturday, but wow does he keep trying.
Latte Lath scored 16 times in 30 Championship games last season, the reason why Ipswich pushed so hard to sign him on deadline day, but is now on a 10-match barren run, with his last goal coming via an opening-weekend penalty against Swansea.
When Sheffield United visit the Riverside an added bonus for Boro's frontman is that their weakness is a strength of his, with the Blades repeatedly torn apart down their right side - where Latte Lath naturally drifts out to - by Leeds on Friday night.
All five of the Ivorian's attempts on goal against Bristol City came from the inside left channel, and while he failed to test the goalkeeper he has now got on the end of chances equating to 4.18 expected goals (xG) this season.
It will turn for him, and at the prices we should keep the faith in midweek.
Millwall vs Plymouth
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 3/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/1
Tom Carnduff
Plymouth come into this game on the back of a 5-0 thrashing by Cardiff. Millwall were held to a frustrating 1-1 draw by Derby.
This game should be a home win and Millwall are well worth including in any Wednesday accumulators but it does present one of my favourite things in betting - a set-piece mismatch.
As an average, a direct shot from a corner which leads to a goal stands at 3%. However, when you have a team who are good at them against one who struggles to defend them, naturally the chance increases.
I'll take the 14/1 on JAPHET TANGANGA TO SCORE ANYTIME in this one then. Centre-back partner Jake Cooper is more than half the odds in the same market.
Tanganga has posted at least one shot in six of his eight league starts this season, with three coming in the home win over Sheffield Wednesday and two in the away draw at Hull.
The defender found the net twice in 18 appearances last season with a total of seven shots across that period. He's already beaten that and should go way above by the end of the campaign.
Millwall sit top of the charts for expected goals (xG) created from set-pieces in the Championship, while Plymouth are fourth when it comes to the figure conceded.
Both Cardiff centre-backs posted a shot in Argyle's last game. The same happened when they faced West Brom. Luton's Mark McGuinness had a huge total of four. All of those have been in the visitors' last five outings.
Manchester City vs Sparta Prague
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Home 1/16 | Draw 10/1 | Away 25/1
Jimmy 'The Punt'
Manchester City without Rodri struggle to control games, the proof is in their recent results.
Wolves became the latest Premier League opponents to put the treble winners under serious pressure, going within seconds of winning a point but for a John Stones winner deep in stoppage time.
Jorgen Strand Larsen seventh-minute opener was the ninth top-flight goal City have conceded this season; Pep Guardiola’s side have not kept the opposition out since matchday one.
Considering this, it is a little odd to see City are yet to concede in the Champions League this term and at 2/1 backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals.
Sparta Prague have scored at least once in all of their 19 fixtures in all competitions this season and will fancy bloodying the nose of the hosts at the Etihad as Fulham (2), Watford, Brentford and Ipswich have managed to do this term.
Brest vs Bayer Leverkusen
- Kick-off time: 17:45 BST, Wednesday
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Home 21/4 | Draw 7/2 | Away 4/9
Tom Carnduff
Bayer Leverkusen find themselves as the 4/9 favourites for success at Brest in one of Wednesday's early kick-offs and the outcome should be just that.
The hosts sit 11th in the Ligue 1 table following an uninspiring start to the season, although they did beat Salzburg 4-0 in their last European encounter.
Leverkusen pose a far tougher test though - the second of Brest's Champions League campaign following a 3-1 defeat to PSG on Matchday 1.
I'm basically going to copy something from the latest edition of the Notebook here because that was highlighted with this game in mind.
At 10/1, take JONATHAN TAH TO SCORE ANYTIME, with 7/1 the lowest price I'd take on the Leverkusen defender.
I haven't fully worked out why - hopefully I'll be able to once I watch and investigate them a bit more - but Brest have issues defending set-pieces against teams who operate with a back-three system.
Games against Auxerre, Le Havre, Lens and Toulouse all saw at least two shots from opposition centre-backs, with each of those teams operating with three from the start. Two Le Havre central defenders had two attempts each.
Tah is Leverkusen's biggest aerial threat. He's scored in the Bundesliga already this season and has posted two or more shots in three of his seven league outings, also having an attempt in the home win over Milan.
It doesn't have to be a header, he has the technical ability to strike with his feet as well. There's even potential for one from range depending how the game plays out.
It's also worth pointing out that Leverkusen have created the highest expected goals (xG) tally from attacking set-pieces of any side in Europe's big five leagues.
Betway go 11/10 that he has 1+ shots in the game too, it doesn't have to be on target, which is well worth backing if you have an account. It won't feature in the staking plan though as others go for around the expected 1/2 marker for it.
Odds correct at 1730 BST (22/10/24)
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