There are plenty of sliding doors moments in every managerial career but Eddie Howe would be pretty miffed if one day soon he has to look back on Anthony Gordon’s senseless red card as the most important of his time at Newcastle.
Gordon is now out of the Carabao Cup final in a fortnight’s time, significantly lowering Newcastle’s already slim chances of beating Liverpool at Wembley.
That, alone, would not do any damage to Howe’s reputation. But it might become the catalyst for a darkening mood that leaves the Howe project suddenly bereft of intent.
That might seem unnecessarily downbeat considering Newcastle are in a cup final and just two points off the Champions League places, yet this is a club in a uniquely weird position, their progress stalling through a combination of on-field results and off-field financial restrictions that has left the entire Saudi project in limbo.
It isn’t exactly clear what the minimum aims are for the current season or what the club’s medium term goals might be.
One thing we can say is that unless Howe wins a trophy this month and gets Newcastle back into the Champions League he surely can’t be living up to expectations.
Newcastle won 60 points last season but were forgiven for an underwhelming campaign because of their Champions League commitments. This year they are projected to hit 62 after winning just six points in their last six matches.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if the owners regularly thought back to their own sliding doors moment – the failed pursuit of Unai Emery – and use his success at Aston Villa as a yard stick.
Villa have got further in the Champions League then Newcastle did and, maybe more importantly, are revived in this year’s pursuit by Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford.
There is a glamorous sheen to Villa that was surely in the Saudi thinking when they bought Newcastle.
Howe was never that, and should the season end with a limp 7th or 8th place finish then two years of underachievement would presumably be enough for serious questions to be raised.
If Newcastle’s owners cannot pump in huge amounts of money like Manchester City did, then one would anticipate they at least want a star-studded team able to get big results in Europe.
And if Man City’s legal case goes in the club’s favour, upending the Premier League’s financial rules and regulations, then there is little doubt Newcastle will change tack and begin to seek an Emery type.
At least until that ruling is made Newcastle, and by extension Howe, will remain in limbo; will remain a club so in flux you can choose your own story for their season.
On the surface level all is rosy, a trip to Wembley on the horizon as they recover to the same level as their 2022/23 campaign, but underneath the club aren’t really anywhere near where they expected to be four years after their purchase.
The ground beneath Howe is not secure.
It cannot be much longer before a return is expected; before Newcastle’s owners accept nothing less than big-club energy and the results to match.
Going out of the FA Cup to Brighton doesn’t feel like a disaster right now. But this summer, Howe may be left wondering what might have been had Gordon not indulged an implausible flash of anger and set Howe’s Newcastle project on a whole new path.
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