Out-of-form League Two side Walsall visit non-leaguers Alfreton in a rearranged FA Cup tie in front of the TV cameras. Michael Beardmore provides his best bets.
- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +25pts in profit for the 2023/24 football season
NB: This article was originally published before Saturday's scheduled tie was postponed but, in light of the quick rearrangement three days later, the author is happy to retain the same tips given little has changed in the meantime
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Alfreton to lead at half-time at 3/1 (General)
0.5pt Liam Gordon to score anytime at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: BBC iPlayer and website
Home 5/2 | Draw 5/2 | Away 19/20
Cards on the table, this article is being written by a Walsall fan. So while it might not be the most impartial preview you ever read, it should at least be relatively well informed. I hope.
Not that I'll be tipping the Saddlers here, mind. Far from it. They've lost four of their past six. Won one in eight - and that was against eighth-tier minnows Sheppey United in the opening round of this competition.
There will be plenty of lower-league fans out there starved of success that recognise the jaded comtempt I often currently hold my club in. I'm not alone, I know that, even if it often feels like it.
Sitting four places above the Football League trapdoor, this tie doesn't just feel like a banana skin. It feels like a jungle-load of them, one half smothered in grease and the other half coated in ice.
What are the best bets?
One of Walsall's biggest Achilles heels this season has been a propensity to go behind. Mat Sadler's side have conceded first in 15 of their 24 games in all competitions - two of the other nine were goalless draws.
They even fell behind to relative no-hopers Sheppey - two leagues below National League North promotion chasers Alfreton - in the first round. A paltry return of three clean sheets in 24 tells a story. Two of those came against bottom-four sides too.
Meanwhile, Alfreton, ninth in the NLN, have made a habit of scoring early - they have netted 11 goals inside the opening half-hour of their 19 league games so far this season.
Yes, we have to take into account the disparity in quality of opposition they have been facing, compared to a Football League side, albeit one that is struggling.
But the 31/10 available on ALFRETON TO BE LEADING AT HALF-TIME looks worth a play. The part-timers might run out of steam but we can expect a fast start from them, especially with the TV cameras in attendance.
LIAM GORDON has been one of Walsall's brighter sparks this season, and last. The full-back loves a foray forward - he's a real edge-of-your-seat player, happy to run and run at opposing defenders.
Gordon often finds himself in decent positions in and around the opposition's area as a result and my eye was caught by the 13/1 on offer for him TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The 24-year-old Guyana international averages almost a shot per game - the fourth highest figure of the Saddlers' regular starters. He's already netted at Bradford this season and is worth a small stake considering the price and level of opponent.
BuildABet @ 20/1
- Alfreton to lead at half-time
- Over 2.5 Goals
- 5+ Walsall corners
- Alfreton most booking points
A huge 10 out of 12 of Walsall's away games in all competitions have landed the overs bet in terms of three goals or more.
The Saddlers earned 10 corners at Sheppey in round one and should register at least half that amount here while it would be a surprise if the fired-up non-leaguers did not incur more cautions than their visitors.
Score prediction: Alfreton 2-2 Walsall (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Team news
Alfreton could well name the same team that beat Worthing in round one to earn the club this bumper television payday.
Walsall have centre-back Harry Williams available again after he returned from injury to feature off the bench in their midweek League Two loss at Barrow.
However, goalkeeper Owen Evans went off injured in the first half of that defeat, meaning the Saddlers could be forced into starting rookie replacement Jackson Smith.
Predicted line-ups
Alfreton: Willis, Brisley, Digie, Clackstone, Newall, Cantrill, Lund, Perritt, Fester, Thewlis, Day.
Walsall: Smith, Okagbue, Daniels, Williams, Gordon, Knowles, Maher, Stirk, Hutchinson, Draper, Matt.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (30/11/23)
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