- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game
Chelsea Turmoil vs Liverpool Chaos
- Chelsea vs Liverpool
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- Home 15/8 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/10
This one could be a clanging, clattering mess of an opener.
Chelsea’s squad looks lopsided following an erratic summer fire sale, leaving Mauricio Pochettino to cobble together a central midfield, and Liverpool are no less chaotic – or at least that’s what pre-season suggests.
Following Jurgen Klopp’s move to a new (sort of) 3-2-5 formation, with Trent Alexander-Arnold roaming into central midfield and the number eights pushing into advanced positions, Liverpool went unbeaten in their final 11 Premier League matches last season but conceded 14 goals. In five pre-season games they scored 18 and conceded 11.
The new system brings extreme attacking menace at the expense of bodies in central midfield or defence, hence the end-to-end chaos we keep seeing. Put that together with Chelsea’s own midfield issues and Pochettino’s attempts to install a very hard-pressing, vertically-inclined style of football, and Sunday’s clash could be wild.
The more settled team, Liverpool, ought to hold the advantage, especially with Christopher Nkunku out injured and Pochettino leaning heavily on young players over the summer.
Carney Chukwuemeka has a daunting role tracking Liverpool’s roaming eights Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai, plus Ben Chilwell and Levi Colwill looks a vulnerable pair to be facing Mohamed Salah.
But whatever the outcome, it will be an entertaining watch.
Kompany’s idealism vs Kompany’s pragmatism
- Burnley vs Manchester City
- Sky Sports: Friday, 20:00 BST
Vincent Kompany’s battle on Friday night is against himself.
There is no shame in losing to Manchester City, of course, but it would be seriously damaging if Burnley’s opener was anything like their 6-0 defeat by Pep Guardiola’s side in the FA Cup quarter-final in March.
Morale aside, a heavy defeat would trigger fears that Kompany is too much of an idealist.
As a Guardiola disciple his Burnley side press hard, play out from the back under pressure, and look to dominate possession – no matter the opponents.
Last year, Plan B was simply to go harder on Plan A, and there is a very real risk this will see Burnley badly exposed as they tackle the huge transition from Championship favourites to Premier League underdogs.
Kompany must show he has learnt from that 6-0 defeat in the spring and deploy a more conservative tactical setup at Turf Moor on Friday, or else Burnley fans can start preparing for a ‘Norwich season’: pretty triangles and an aesthetic style, but lacking the pragmatism needed to win points.
Futuristic Brighton vs Old-school Luton
- Brighton vs Luton
- Saturday, 15:00 BST
The most interesting tactical match-up this weekend is at the Amex, where Brighton have just enjoyed their first pre-season under Roberto de Zerbi and will, therefore, be even more tactically astute and futuristic than they were last season.
Luton could hardly be more different.
Rob Edwards masterminded Luton’s promotion with a direct counter-attacking approach that will stick out like a sore thumb in the modern Premier League, which is something to be celebrated.
Tactical variety is an important part of making the game interesting and Luton, who press aggressively but quickly drop deep into a 5-3-2 formation, are all about launching long balls to target man Carlton Morris and winning set-pieces.
It is classic percentages football and led to 16 set-piece goals last season (23% of their total), yet the emphasis should be even greater in 2023/24 as Luton adapt to being one of the weaker teams in their division.
This is especially true for a trip to Brighton, where Luton’s bold defensive strategy is likely to give way to a backs-to-the-wall approach in order to prevent De Zerbi from luring them into a trap.
It is unlikely to win Luton their first Premier League points, simply because the quality gap is too great. Financial restrictions resulting from their new stadium build have limited Luton’s spending power this summer and Brighton, patiently probing, should be able to break them down.
Nevertheless, it will be a fascinating watch as matchday one provides us with the biggest tactical contrast we are likely to see all season – as well as a reminder that there is no right way to play football.
Static Newcastle vs Mobile Villa
- Newcastle vs Aston Villa
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 BST
The team who broke the top four last season begin 2023/24 against the non-'Big Six' club most likely to sneak into the Champions League places this year, providing a valuable early test of what’s in store for Eddie Howe and Unai Emery.
The Premier League form table from Emery’s first game in charge on November 5 has Villa on 49 points from 25 games, two points more than Newcastle.
Villa supporters are confident, then, that with a full pre-season under Emery – and after a very successful transfer window in which the Spaniard was handed total power by the club’s owners – their team will finish above Newcastle this season.
Moussa Diaby adds the speed and directness missing from Villa’s counter-attacks last year; Youri Tielemans is a player always searching for progressive passes through the lines; and Pau Torres gives Villa the option of switching to a hybrid back three. They are all in the Emery mould.
Newcastle’s summer hasn’t been quite as successful, tempered a little by the economic realities of Financial Fair Play.
Sandro Tonali is possibly an awkward fit, and may push Bruno Guimaraes deeper, while it’s noteworthy that Newcastle signed Harvey Barnes and not James Maddison, the more talented player who chose Tottenham Hotspur.
In other words, it’s possible they have hit a ceiling for the time being while Aston Villa continue to climb. That narrative will certainly be told should the visitors get off to a winning start at St James' Park.
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