- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Edwards’ low block v Doku
- Luton v Manchester City
- Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- Home 18/1 | Draw 15/2 | Away 1/8
A few weeks ago it would have been inconceivable for Luton Town to get anything from Manchester City. But in their last three at Kenilworth Road Luton have drawn 1-1 with Liverpool, beaten Crystal Palace 2-1, and lost 4-3 to Arsenal. Rob Edwards’ side can score goals on the counter-attack and from set-pieces, as well as frustrate the strongest sides with their low block.
Man City are now four in a row without victory, but even with Rodri back they might be vulnerable to a raucous atmosphere at Luton, especially with their confidence low.
More importantly, the tactical battle isn’t necessarily in Pep Guardiola’s favour: Luton’s 5-3-2 is very good at blocking the central column, with the forwards pressing well and the midfield remaining tight to the three centre-backs.
Two of Arsenal’s goals were built down the right flank, one was a cross from deep, and the fourth was from a long punt upfield. It is unlikely Man City will do any of those actions, given Guardiola’s desire for slow control and his use of centre-backs as full-backs this season. Luton should be able to double up on the City wingers out wide while also blocking the central route to goal.
There’s just one problem, and that’s Jeremy Doku, who could be back at the weekend. His dribbling from the left can break the Luton lines and create dangerous situations at the byline of the sort Saka produced for Arsenal in midweek.
Doku’s disruptive influence is just what City need to pull Luton’s low block out of shape and create openings.
However, if Luton can hold out for the first 30 minutes at 0-0, the difference in confidence between the two teams should provide the hosts with the advantage they need to keep Man City at arms’ length.
Ten Hag’s high press v Bournemouth’s front four
- Manchester United v Bournemouth
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Home 8/15 | Draw 7/2 | Away 9/2
Bournemouth have won three of their last four Premier League matches thanks almost entirely to the clicking of their front four.
Andoni Iraola has found the right combination of fluid and dribbling attackers, with number ten Justin Kluivert flitting from side to side and swapping positions with wingers Marcus Tavernier and Antoine Semenyo.
The way they fly forward in the transition, capitalising on Iraola’s high pressing to seize possession and gallop towards goal, is a major worry for Manchester United considering how out of sorts they continue to look when defending transitional moments.
Their 2-1 victory over Chelsea was a very strong performance, yet it was far too end-to-end to be considered controlled, and should Sofyan Amrabat be left with quite so much to do this weekend Bournemouth’s front four will pounce.
Nevertheless, perhaps chaotic matches like the Chelsea one suit Man Utd. Erik ten Hag’s team pressed well in midweek, using their speed in attack in much the way Bournemouth do. In other words, they will happily be pulled into Bournemouth’s way of playing, creating another basketball match at Old Trafford that could swing either way.
Neither manager will give up the high press. Neither manager will look to rein things in, given that to do so would limit the effectiveness of their direct forward line.
There will be goals.
McGinn & Tielemans v Rice-led midfield
- Aston Villa vs Arsenal
- Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- Home 12/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/20
Aston Villa’s scarcely believable domination of Manchester City in midweek has made them outsiders to challenge for the title.
A win against Arsenal, which would set a new club record of 15 consecutive wins at Villa Park, would make it difficult even for Unai Emery to deny they are in with a chance.
But Arsenal are a very different prospect. Villa’s victory on Wednesday was built on the deployment of John McGinn and Youri Tielemans in the half-spaces either side of an isolated Manuel Akanji, with Pep Guardiola’s strange 4-1-4-1 formation meaning a line of four Man City players were easily taken out of the game with a clipped pass into McGinn or Tielemans.
City badly missed Rodri, and Arsenal’s Declan Rice will shut down those half-spaces considerably more effectively. The most important match-up is between Arsenal’s leader and the Villa wingers who, cutting inside, have been brilliant at ghosting into central spaces all season.
Emery’s side will take heart from the way Arsenal tend to deploy two high eights above Rice, although on occasion Mikel Arteta has been known to field Rice and Jorginho together to sure up that middle ground.
Villa, now one of the biggest and most feared clubs in the division, might be given that sort of respect, potentially closing down their main attacking threat.
Villa’s narrowness could even play into Arsenal’s hands. If the visitors’ pressure is successful, then as the ball turns over they will find the Villa flanks open and full-backs Lucas Digne and Ezri Konsa a little over-exposed. Arteta’s side are superb at quick switches of play to Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, who then drive at the full-back.
If McGinn and Leon Bailey are caught ahead of the play, and too central to help their full-backs, then Villa could be sucked into an open end-to-end contest that suits Arsenal more than it does the hosts.
Then again, if Bailey is as good as he was against Man City, then Villa might just explode down the right wing on the counter-attack, taking advantage of the gaps that appear when Oleksandr Zinchenko (likely to be rotated back into the starting 11) moves into central midfield.
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