Alex Keble's Premier League match-ups: How can Chelsea stop Manchester City?
Alex Keble (@AlexKeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Pochettino’s fast transitions v Guardiola’s width
- Chelsea vs Manchester City
- Sky Sports Main Event: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- Home 18/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 8/11
Chelsea’s 4-1 victory over Tottenham on Monday night has given Sunday’s headline fixture new meaning.
Manchester City, now top of the league, are suddenly expected to pull away from a chasing pack who all proved their fallibility last weekend.
Chelsea, though, are considerably more tactically organised than results have shown and Mauricio Pochettino has consistently collected points against ‘Big Six’ sides this season.
The model for Sunday’s game is the 2-2 draw with Arsenal, in which prior to a late collapse Pochettino’s use of dual false nines in a deep-lying 4-4-2 (creating a box midfield) squeezed the middle and allowed Chelsea to spring forward on the counter-attack.
Things only broke down when he brought Nicolas Jackson on and moved to a 4-2-3-1, allowing Arsenal to start playing their way through the middle, and after a Jackson-led Chelsea were blown away by Spurs on Monday (until red cards turned the tide) one would expect Pochettino to revert to the double false-nine system.
It might just work, stunting Man City’s ball progression as it did Arsenal.
In recent away defeats at Wolves and at Arsenal, Pep Guardiola’s side were stunted by a lower block and a flat 4-4-2 that, forming a shielding around City’s central midfielders, forced City into slower football.
If Chelsea can repeat that, then we know Pochettino will enjoy sharp vertical transitions fed through Raheem Sterling. That absurdist Spurs line on Monday showed the depth of Chelsea’s coaching in this regard.
The glaring problem with this theory for Sunday, however, is the fact that Rodri’s absence was the main reason behind Man City’s dropped points away from the Etihad.
His brilliant distribution under pressure will, most likely, avoid the traps set by those Chelsea false nines.
Worse still, Man City are increasingly successful at working around a deep block with a more direct and wing-focused route to goal.
Jeremy Doku’s goal and four assists against Bournemouth showed that Guardiola now has a direct ball-carrier who can square up a full-back, in this instance Reece James, and wreak havoc.
In fact, anticipating Chelsea’s box midfield squeezing the central column of the pitch, Guardiola might even play Jack Grealish and Doku together, with Bernardo Silva drifting out to double up with the wingers as he did in the dismantling of Manchester United a fortnight ago.
If that happens, then the game could descend into the kind of chaos we saw in Chelsea’s home games against Arsenal and Liverpool.
It is more likely that Guardiola will seek total control, meaning Doku or Grealish, while Pochettino will happily concede territory to keep things tight and break in precise moments.
It will be a much closer game than many expect, and just maybe a chance to reopen a title race that had appeared to be closing.
O’Neil’s defensive blockade v weakened Spurs XI
- Wolves vs Tottenham
- TNT Sports 1: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- Home 18/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 8/11
The home crowd on Monday night applauded their team as Chelsea went 3-1 up, which was one of the most bizarre moments in Premier League history but also testament to the logic of Ange Postecoglou’s insane nine-man high line: the courage, the fun, and the attacking instincts are impossible not to celebrate.
That is why Spurs are unlikely to fall apart psychologically after such a big defeat against their rivals – even if their performance next Saturday has all the hallmarks of a sluggish downturn in mental energy.
Injuries and suspensions mean Tottenham will be without three of their regular back four and, maybe, without James Maddison as well. That is a serious concern considering the sleepy 12:30 kick-off time and Wolves’ suffocating defensive setup.
Gary O’Neil has already beaten Man City and drawn against high-octane sides Aston Villa and Newcastle United at Molineux this season.
He will expect to pounce on any Spurs frailty.
Spurs have ten players who have started at least ten of their 11 Premier League games so far; the strong start has been built on momentum more than anything else, and therefore absences are likely to clutter the team and disrupt some of their patterns of play.
That makes it easier for Wolves, in a stubborn and compressed 5-3-2, to simply block the midfield spaces.
The secret to Tottenham’s tactical success is inverting both full-backs and instructing them to make forward runs like number eights, but the spare centre-back in Wolves’ back five should be able to step out and block those runs without compromising the defensive solidity.
It’s hardly a headline-grabbing key battle, but Max Kilman versus Emerson Royal and Toti Gomes versus Pedro Porro is the area that should decide the contest.
The only issue for Wolves is Pedro Neto’s absence through injury because without his dribbling their counter-attacks will be significantly reduced.
Even so, Hwang Hee-Chan, with six goals in eight starts, and the ever-improving Matheus Cunha will fancy their chances against a defence missing Christian Romero, Micky van der Ven, Destiny Udogie, Ryan Sessegnon, and Ben Davies.
Eric Dier is the only centre-back left. Hwang and Cunha should enjoy themselves, giving Wolves the chance to relegate Tottenham out of the top four and end the Postecoglou honeymoon period in the process.
Understat.com’s calculation of xPoints, using xG numbers to simulate results, has Tottenham all the way down in seventh on 19.08 points, below Chelsea, Newcastle United, and Aston Villa among others.
Their excellent start is built on vibes more than strong tactical foundations, and when the fun stops – when players start missing games and high lines start getting worked out – Tottenham might be in for a heavy fall.
Wolves at Molineux isn’t supposed to stick out. But it’s the biggest match of the Postecoglou era so far.
Odds correct at 1045 GMT (08/11/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.