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Alex Keble's Premier League match-ups: Attackers hold the key

By Alex Keble

Football

Sun September 03, 2023 · 1y ago

Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.

Havertz vs Casemiro

Arsenal vs Man Utd
Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30
Home 4/5 | Draw 3/1 | Win 3/1

Sunday’s headline fixture has taken on significance that nobody saw coming. Before the season began Arsenal and Manchester United were praised for smart transfer business that appeared to set them apart as the two Premier League clubs most prepared for incremental improvement.

Instead there is confusion and the fear of things coming apart at the seams. Arsenal are better placed than United but, following the 2-2 draw with Fulham, Mikel Arteta’s experimental rejig of the back four has been an unforced error. Suddenly his team look considerably weaker than Manchester City.

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But whereas Arsenal clearly remain on the right path the certainty about Erik ten Hag is weakening. Man Utd only came back from 2-0 down against Nottingham Forest through sheer force of will, and before that were tactically outclassed by Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves.

Year two was supposed to be the point when Ten Hag’s tactics came to the fore, but at the moment United are formless, passive, and individualistic – even more so than last season.

The most important match-up on Sunday is between Kai Havertz and Casemiro, jostling for control in the same spaces of central midfield, but really their battle will be symbolic of the two managers’ struggle to find tactical coherence: Havertz’s ghostly performances represent Arteta’s clumsy choices in August, while Casemiro’s poor performances are symptomatic of Man Utd’s creaking, shapeless football.

Ten Hag has instructed his players to press more aggressively this year, which has only left them open to being countered – by Wolves and Spurs in particular – although he is likely to take a slightly more conservative approach at the Emirates.

Casemiro, then, won’t be left scrambling to cover huge areas of the pitch (something he has never been comfortable doing), while Havertz could again get crowded out, lost as he so often is in central midfield.

That doesn’t mean Man Utd are best placed to put an unconvincing start behind them. Arteta will instruct his players to seize counter-attacking opportunities and, with Luke Shaw out injured, we can expect the ball to move quickly to Bukayo Saka so that he can take on Diogo Dalot. Arsenal will force the pitch to become stretched and United will, as at Spurs, be pulled into playing that game.

Arsenal’s chances rest on Arteta ending the experiment of Thomas Partey at right-back. Oleksandr Zinchenko’s recovery from injury allows Arteta to return to his settled back four from last season, which should control the threat posed by Bruno Fernandes.

In doing so, Arsenal can stabilise – can rediscover themselves – proving in the process that their wobble comes from a more grounded place than Man Utd’s. Ten Hag has no such option to simplify and restore order.

In fact, over a year into the project we still don’t quite know what his team are supposed to be. It won’t be long before he starts feeling the pressure.

Defeat on Sunday might start be the beginning.

Darwin vs Villa’s high line

Liverpool vs Villa
Sunday, 14:00
Home 4/6 | Draw 10/3 | Away 7/2

Jurgen Klopp refused to be drawn on whether Darwin Nunez would start against Aston Villa following his late brace against Newcastle United, but even putting form to one side Darwin is the right man to face Unai Emery’s offside trap.

Last season, no team faced more through-balls than Villa’s 95, reflecting the dangerous high-wire act of their defensive line under Emery. No matter the opponent he expects his players to step up and catch the forwards offside, an idea that has become shakier now that Pau Torres – looking a bit erratic for the time being – is part of central defence.

Darwin is one of the best strikers in the world when it comes to beating the offside trap, and as long as he starts his runs a little deeper than usual he should be able to get on the end of through balls.

Klopp will be encouraging Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai to hit early long passes over the top of the Villa defence and it’s hard to see how the visitors defend these adequately.

That’s the most important match-up, but even if it goes in Liverpool’s favour they could still lose the game.

Emery’s fastidious preparation will likely lead to John McGinn and Moussa Diaby working together to get into the spaces either side of Wataru Endo, and there is a decent chance of Villa outnumbering their hosts in the middle of the pitch.

Kompany’s press vs Postecoglou's progression

Burnley vs Spurs
Saturday, 15:00 BST
Home 29/10 | Draw 29/10 | Away 5/6

Burnley’s difficult start to the season has been all the more cruel for facing three very different types of tactical challenge. Manchester City’s possession domination ground them down; Aston Villa’s counter-attacking approach absorbed Burnley’s own Man City pretensions; and Tottenham Hotspur will provide manic attacking energy that, most likely, will blow them away.

James Maddison was the most important player in the 2-0 win at Bournemouth, where Andoni Iraola’s high press was navigated by Maddison coming short to collect possession and weave away from trouble.

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This was clearly a deliberate strategy from Ange Postecoglou to provide an extra body in the build-up: 42% of Maddison’s 57 touches were in the Spurs half, compared with 31% in the previous game against Man Utd.

Spurs are fortunate to play Burnley a week after Bournemouth because they can seamlessly continue with the same ideas. Vincent Kompany’s side have remained committed to their high-pressing and possession based system so far, and at Turf Moor they will – as against Man City on the opening day – go man-to-man in the hope of forcing high turnovers.

They could succeed at times, given that Spurs are still getting used to the shapes of Postecoglou’s build-up play, but with Maddison in brilliant form it is far more likely the visitors will evade the press and burst into life.

If that wasn’t bad enough, Villa showed up the flaws of Burnley’s 4-4-2 formation last weekend. It is easy to imagine those under-lapping Spurs full-backs going completely unmarked as Postecoglou swarms Kompany’s relatively simplistic formation.

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