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Alex Keble's Premier League match-ups: A weekend of variety
- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game
Howe to target Trent holes
- Newcastle vs Liverpool
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30
- Home 23/20 | Draw 14/5 | Win 2/1
A lot of the pre-match analysis of Sunday’s headline game will focus on an interesting midfield battle as new signing Wataru Endo prepares to patrol the base for Liverpool.
Following Dominik Szoboszlai’s superb performance against Bournemouth and Sandro Tonali’s good start for Newcastle United, it makes sense to look at how the two new-look midfields will cope.
But it is not where the game will be won or lost.
Newcastle’s tendency to attack quickly in the transition and Liverpool’s stretched-out chaos through the lines of late means we are likely to see an end-to-end game not dissimilar to Liverpool’s 1-1 draw with Chelsea on the opening weekend.
The difference this time, however, is a clear mismatch in one area of the pitch.
Liverpool continue to look soft down their right, too easily caught by longer passes into this channel when Trent Alexander-Arnold is holding a central midfield position.
This is because, whereas most other teams using inverted full-backs move to a back three, thus covering the width, Andrew Robertson gets forward for Liverpool, leaving Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate with too much to do.
Newcastle were particularly adept at breaking Aston Villa’s high defensive line with passes down Villa’s right wing in their opening 5-1 victory, with Anthony Gordon, then Harvey Barnes, excelling in behind.
This presents a huge problem for Jurgen Klopp, particularly if Eddie Howe picks Barnes from the start alongside Joelinton making runs as the left-sided eight.
All eyes are on who can control midfield.
But nobody will quite manage it and, with space for both sides, Newcastle can take advantage of Liverpool’s all-too-familiar defensive issues.
Mitoma & Estupinan to torment Coufal
- Brighton v West Ham
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30
- Home 1/2 | Draw 18/5 | Away 19/4
West Ham’s 3-1 victory over Chelsea was partly about taking their rare chances and partly the result of the red card given to Nayef Aguerd, which focused them into an outright defensive stance that ultimately proved to be the best way to play a Chukwuemeka-less Chelsea.
It probably has very little bearing, then, on the challenge posed by Brighton.
Brighton are the Premier League’s top goalscorers with eight, their 3-2-5 in possession tearing teams apart in particular down the left flank, where a league-high 45% of their attacks are built.
After Pervis Estupinan becomes the de facto left winger as Kaoru Mitoma moves inside, the two players combine to overwhelm the opposition right-back - which happens to be West Ham’s most vulnerable position.
Ben Chilwell and Chukwuemeka repeatedly got the better of Vladimir Coufal, the weak link in the West Ham team and a player who receives little support from Jarrod Bowen in transitional moments.
There should be many of those on Saturday evening, with De Zerbi keen to make use of turnovers by piling bodies forward after possession is won.
Bowen, tasked with getting close to Michail Antonio, will get caught behind the play at times, exposing Coufal to the movement and dribbling of Estupinan and Mitoma, who already have two goals and four assists between them in the Premier League this season.
Cunha could expose slow centre-backs
- Everton vs Wolves
- Saturday, 15:00
- Home 13/10 | Draw 9/4 | Win 11/5
Everton are in a perilous position. They have never lost their first three games of the season without scoring a goal, yet that looks like a realistic prospect ahead of a crucial six-pointer.
Their goalscoring issues are well-documented and considering that Sean Dyche’s Burnley rarely scoring goals with two strikers up front it is highly unlikely his 4-5-1 will suddenly come good at Everton. They have scored seven goals in ten league matches at Goodison Park since he took charge.
Worryingly, things are just as bad at the back. Everton have one of the slowest centre-back partnerships in the division and, without Conor Coady, they frankly look too error-prone and flat-footed to cope with the speed of the top flight.
Aston Villa easily tore through them last weekend and Wolves, using the same dribble-focused counter-attacks we saw at Old Trafford, should be able to burst clear of Michael Keane and James Tarkowski.
Dyche can expect a positive response to the abysmal performance at Villa Park but there is a clear risk Everton will, again, fail to apply pressure to the ball or compress space between the lines. If that happens, Matheus Cunha – who completed five take-ons at United – will find the space he needs to carry Wolves directly into the final third.
Both clubs are in poor form and both struggle to score goals.
But whereas Everton are passive, Wolves have a driving vertical energy. That should make the difference.
Chuk-less Chelsea caught out?
- Chelsea vs Luton
- Sky Sports: Friday, 20:00
- Home 1/5 | Draw 11/2 | Away 12/1
Nobody anticipated a scenario in which Carney Chukwuemeka was the most important part of Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea, but two matches in and that appears to be the case.
His injury, forcing him off at half-time at West Ham, changed the dynamic of the match – and could have a big impact this Friday.
Pochettino’s return to the Premier League is an interesting point of difference at the top end of the table, because unlike the more in-vogue positional play of Manchester City or Arsenal he expects his players to regularly swap positions, dribble through the lines, and allow the overall shape to regularly shift.
In the first two matches that has created a 3-4-2-1 formation that drifts into a lopsided 4-2-3-1, with Chukwuemeka the most malleable player as an inside forward, number eight, and left winger all at once.
Without him at West Ham, Chelsea descended into something a lot more rigid and predictable, allowing the hosts to sit deep and defend as Raheem Sterling and Mykhailo Mudryk tried to dribble around the outside of the shell.
Once glued to their positions, Pochettino teams stop making sense.
Chukwuemeka’s injury could be good news for Luton, then, who are set to be the most direct team in the Premier League in at least a decade.
They held 29% possession at Brighton on the opening weekend and were pulled apart by the positional rotations of Roberto de Zerbi, but should Chelsea congeal a little in Chukwemueka’s absence, as they did at West Ham, then Luton can hold their shape.
Pochettino may trial Conor Gallagher in that more advanced left-sided role, or he may have spent time in the week teaching Mudryk the complexities of the role.
More likely, Chelsea will take a small step back.
And the new manager will be left frustrated by the club’s decision to let Mason Mount and Kai Havertz depart.
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