Alex Keble's Euro 2024 match-ups for the quarter-finals

By Alex Keble

20:08 · FRI July 05, 2024

Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.

Mbappe breaks v static Ronaldo

Portugal vs France
Friday 5th July, 20:00 - ITV1
Home 9/4 | Draw 2/1 | Away 13/10

It is a similar tactical story in the later game, albeit more pronounced in the difference between the two sides – and with the added twist of the Cristiano Ronaldo factor.

Kylian Mbappe hasn’t quite looked himself since he broke his nose, but then again France have never really looked comfortable in this tournament facing defensive oppositions who pack the penalty area. Didier Deschamps is far happier sitting in a midblock, inviting pressure, then countering behind.

That is a marked difference from Spain (who make use of transitions but ultimately want to be on the front foot) and it means Portugal need to be very wary of being lured into the trap. Their biggest problem is Roberto Martinez’s willingness to surge forward and look to overwhelm with attacking numbers; Portugal top the charts for average possession at this tournament (68.5%).

Martinez is Deschamps’ tactical opposite, and in international football the more conservative counter-attacking manager normally comes out on top. On Friday, Mbappe may get joy against Joao Cancelo, Portugal’s attacking right-back who runs the risk of being caught ahead of the ball in key moments. Their head-to-head is likely to be decisive, unless Martinez surprises us by returning to a 3-4-3 with Diogo Dalot at right wing-back.

Mbappe is at his best on the counter-attack and Portugal, with 41-year Pepe scrambling back, will give him chances.

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Then there’s the Ronaldo factor. He played poorly in the 0-0 draw with Slovenia, and while France won’t match their 31% possession they will similarly look to crowd out Portugal’s static front man. This could make it even easier for France to hold their deeper line, hold their nerve, and slow Portugal down until frustration sets in.

Portugal managed just three shots on target in 90 minutes against Slovenia. Ronaldo has had more shots than any other player at Euro 2024 (20) but is yet to score. Unless Goncalo Ramos – who scored a hat-trick in the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup after replacing Ronaldo in the lineup – comes in, Ronaldo will likely prove too heavy a weight for a Portugal side looking a little ponderous.

Spain’s width-based directness v Germany’s high line

Spain vs Germany
Friday 5th July, 17:00 - ITV1
Home 8/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 13/8

Tactically speaking, the first half of any international tournament is always different from the second, but the gap has never been more pronounced than it is in the current age of transition-based football around Europe.

Up until now the bigger nations have had to slog through games dominating the ball against a low block, whereas from the quarter-finals onwards they will be on an equal footing with their opponent, increasing the tempo substantially and driving up the number of attacking transitions.

In the first quarter-final that suits Spain more than it does Germany. Spain have consistently threatened on the flanks at Euro 2024, attacking predominantly by running directly at opposition full-backs via Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams; the Spanish rank second in the tournament for successful take-ons (44) and progressive carries (130).

These two were superb when counter-attacking opportunities arose in the 1-0 victory over Italy (the only game in which, with the Italians pushing up, Spain have had the chance to stretch their legs) while both wingers were crucial to getting past Georgia in the second round.

Ah que Nico Williams y Lamine Yamal se han puesto a bailar después del gol NO pic.twitter.com/6sqmV1GFBU
— Manu. (@GxlDePaulinho) June 30, 2024

By comparison Germany are far less direct in their approach, and particularly on home turf they will expect to dominate possession on Friday – having so far averaged 65% across the competition compared to Spain’s 59%.

And while that control has been a big positive so far (Germany are the top scorers, with ten) the beginning of the second act of Euro 2024 brings a new threat, hints of which we have already seen in the previous rounds.

Against Switzerland, an offside goal was scored via a through ball that pierced Germany’s very high defensive line and several other attacks left Antonio Rudiger flailing a little when balls went in behind. Similarly in the 2-0 against Denmark, their opponents broke the back line to go one-on-one when the score was level.

In fact, Germany have allowed the most opposition through-balls (7) in the whole competition. Spain’s brilliant young wingers, then, will expect to find space behind the high line and particularly on Rudiger’s side. Keep an eye out for Pedri and Rodri playing through balls into Williams and Yamal, who can anticipate more space than ever.

CLICK HERE to back Rodri 1+ assist with Sky Bet

Spain’s direct game comes up against Germany’s slower possession style. It is exactly the contest Luis de la Fuente will want.

Euro 2024: More from Sporting Life

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