Alex Keble's Euro 2024 match-ups for round three of group games

By Alex Keble

20:00 · TUE June 25, 2024

Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.

England’s midfield v Slovenia’s midblock

England v Slovenia
Tuesday 25th June, 20:00 - ITV1
Home 4/11 | Draw 18/5 | Away 15/2

It really wasn’t the catastrophe so many made it out to be. England were sluggish, their left wing was non-existent and the midfield was a mess with Trent Alexander-Arnold in it, but a truly abysmal pitch had a huge impact on the players – and a 1-1 draw with Denmark isn’t a bad result.

It’s worth repeating – because the BBC pundit team have certainly forgotten – that England aren’t trying to be Manchester City. The idea is to play with French conservatism and every group game against weaker opposition is simply a warm-up for the latter stages, when England’s tactical approach will make more sense. How England’s shape works against a low block will not define their tournament.

But unfortunately for Gareth Southgate the narrative that England are back to Hodgsonian square one is only going to strengthen against Slovenia, who are by far the most defensive side in the group. England will not enjoy this.

Slovenia’s risk-averse tactics include a compressed midblock 4-4-2 and an aggressive press once the opposition passes the ball into central midfield. In other words: England’s worst nightmare.

If England are again confused in the middle and lethargic in possession, Slovenia’s assertive press will hound them down cul-de-sacs, forcing another stale performance low on chances.

Matjaz Kek’s side held just 32% possession against Denmark and 39% against Serbia, drawing both games 1-1. Expect that figure to drop to around 25% on Tuesday as they attempt to slow England down and create an anxious, hostile atmosphere.

England need to up their game. That surely means dropping Alexander-Arnold for Conor Gallagher, who adds bite and urgency (not to mention understanding of the role), and it ought to mean releasing Declan Rice a little higher.

Southgate’s triple substitution against Denmark suggests he is more willing to take gambles than at previous tournaments, and with that in mind he could go for broke with Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden as eights either side of Declan Rice, freeing up a place for a direct dribbler (Eberechi Eze or Anthony Gordon) to stretch Slovenia on the left flank.

That is probably a step too far for Southgate. More likely, it will be more of the same – and more righteous fury from the media. But don’t forget: nobody will remember how England performed in the group stages. The tournament proper doesn’t start for another week.

Szoboszlai v Gilmour

Scotland vs Hungary
Sunday 23rd June, 20:00 - BBC One
Home 17/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 29/20

So far Hungary have fulfilled the traditional tournament role of the failed dark horse, and in both of their defeats (to Germany and Switzerland) new and unexpected flaws have developed for Marco Rossi’s side. Scotland have a chance, especially now Billy Gilmour is in the starting XI.

His clever pass set Scotland away for their opener against Switzerland and he proved to be a metronomic presence in the middle, but more importantly he helped to close the gaps between defence and midfield that had been so catastrophic in the defeat to Germany.

Scotland’s bursts of disorganised pressing had opened up space between the lines, leading directly to four of Germany’s five goals, but there was none of that in the second game against Switzerland thanks to Steve Clarke’s formation change. In a 3-5-2, an extra central midfielder in Gilmour shut things down.

Scotland need to build on that against Hungary, who in Dominic Szoboszlai possess a very effective number ten ready to pull the strings should those gaps re-emerge. Rossi’s 3-4-2-1 formation frees Szoboszlai to lurk in the number ten space, and although we haven’t seen this so far at Euro 2024 Scotland’s low block should ensure the Liverpool midfielder sees more of the ball.

At the other end, again Gilmour is the key. Of the five goals Hungary have conceded so far two have been unforced defensive errors and two have resulted from a mirror image of Scotland’s flaw: the number ten space left wide open by disconnected defence and midfield lines.

Gilmour, driving into this space to support Scott McTominay, is the most likely player to take advantage should Hungary’s tactical issues continue.

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