Sporting Life have poured through Infogol's Expected Goals (xG) data and picked out Aleksandar Mitrovic as the Sky Bet Championship's xG player of the month for September.
The xG player of the month is selected via Infogol's rating system, with Fulham striker Mitrovic's 8.87 across September seeing off competition from Blackburn's Ben Brereton-Diaz (8.38) and Coventry's Viktor Gyokeres (8.36).
Mitro's on fire, the Championship is terrified
Mitrovic produced a fearsome four weeks in front of goal, with the Serb netting six times from chances equating to 4.25 (xG) across five games in the league.
He also contributed one assist from an Expected Assists (xA) total of 0.73.
Mitrovic’s underlying numbers showed a gold standard level of consistency.
When a player’s xG total is eclipsed by their actual goal tally, analysts will sit up and take note, especially if it is done consistently.
Mitrovic performed slightly above what was to be expected, and after performing in line with his figures in August (four goals, 3.94 xG), we can determine that the Serb is a reliable Championship finisher.
The key thing to note from Mitrovic's perspective is the rate at which he is getting on the end of chances.
From a stats standpoint, a good striker should be one that consistently gets on the end of good scoring chances, taking those opportunities at an expected rate or just above it.
Mitrovic ticks that box emphatically, with it being clear from his previous exploits in the Championship that he is a cut above this level.
From zero to hero
Mitrovic’s numbers are even more incredible when you compare his stats to the torrid time he had in the Premier League last season.
The forward managed just three goals from a total xG of 7.35 in 2020/21. After scoring a brace in a 4-3 loss to Leeds in September, he wouldn’t score his third and final goal until April, going 21 league games without finding the net.
Under Scott Parker he started just 13 times, with Fulham often opting for a false nine. But this term new manager Marco Silva has made Mitrovic his man and the Cottagers number nine hasn’t looked back.
In August he was untouchable netting a goal every game for four consecutive matches to help his side finish the month at the summit of the Championship table.
And if he was good in August, Mitrovic was great in September, bagging two goals for Serbia at the start of the month before taking the Championship by storm.
He netted two against Birmingham, one at Bristol City and finished off his tally with a match-winning hat-trick against Swansea.
Without Mitrovic’s goals, Fulham would be six points worse off. In a league of fine margins it's the difference between being fifth in the table - two points off second - and being 14th.
Mitrovic’s total xG of 7.35 in the Premier League last term has already been eclipsed by his combined August and September total of 8.19 in the Championship.
Last month he averaged 1.2 goals per game. His xG per 95 minutes in September, which is the best gauge to measure forwards by, was an exceptionally high 0.88.
Even taking away his ability to create something out of nothing, if he was to continue his form from September, the underlying xG numbers suggest Mitrovic would score roughly 30 more goals in the remaining 35 Championship fixtures.
Don't bet against it.
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