Jake (@JAKEOZZ) is +7.0pts in profit across AFCON 2023 so far
Football betting tips: AFCON 2023
1pt DR Congo -1 handicap vs Tanzania at 7/4 (General)
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Tanzania vs DR Congo
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 19/4 | Draw 14/5 | Away 11/20
It's still all to play for in group F, with even Tanzania in with a chance of qualifying.
I'll hold my hands up and admit that, I think I called DR CONGO wrong. Their performances have been far better than I was expecting, even if they have drawn twice, but they have convinced me they can with this game comfortably, so chancig the -1 HANDICAP appeals.
DR Congo absolutely battered Zambia in their opener, winning the shot count 25-3 and the xG battle 2.54-0.20, only conceding through a freak long-range goal.
WHAT A CRAZY GOAL! 😅
— Mail Sport (@MailSport) January 17, 2024
Some quick thinking from Zambia sees Kings Kangwa produce a lovely finish after DR Congo’s keeper is left stranded 😳
pic.twitter.com/dDJKbwO2Kn
They also out-created tournament favourites Morocco, racking up 1.87 xG to their 1.09, so they have hit a very solid level at AFCON.
Tanzania were out-classed by the Moroccans, losing 3-0 with the xG figures 2.53-0.03, and then, despite playing against 10-men from the 44th minute against Zambia, they were comfortably second best (ZAM 1.03 - 0.32 TAN).
There looks to be a gulf in class between these sides, and given it's likely only a win will do for DR Congo, with a only a big-scorline win giving them the chance of usurping Morocco and getting a more favourable last 16 draw, I think we can expect a fireworks from the Leopards.
AFCON matchday three fixtures
Monday, January 22
Tuesday, January 23
Wednesday January 24
Betting tips already advised in matchday three:
- 1pt Ademola Lookman (Nigeria) 1+ assist vs Guinea-Bissau at 7/2 (bet365)
- 1pt Georges-Kevin N'Koudou (Cameroon) to score or assist vs Gambia at 9/5 (Betfair)
- 1pt Burkina Faso to beat Angola at 11/8 (Betway)
- 1.5pts Over 2.0 Asian Goals in South Africa vs Tunisia at 51/50 (bet365)
Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria
- Kick-off time: 17:00 GMT, Monday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 14/1 | Draw 19/4 | Away 1/5
After a draw with Equatorial Guinea to start their campaign, Nigeria head into the final group game against a Guinea-Bissau team who are all-but eliminated knowing a win will likely be enough to secure top spot in Group A and set up last 16 clash with a third placed team.
That should be preferable, with the runner-up in A taking on the runner-up in C (likely a solid Guinea team), and should mean we see the Super Eagles go for the win here.
The Nigerian's are heavily fancied to get the win against the 103rd ranked team in the world, and that isn't a surprise given the firepower they possess and the performances they've put in so far.
After creating an abundance of chances (xG: NGA 3.52 - 0.26 EQG) and being unfortunate to only draw with an Equatorial Guinea side who smashed Guinea-Bissau, the Super Eagles beat the hosts in a different kind of display, showing a willingness to sit deep and frustrate (XG: IVC 0.57 - 1.72 NGA).
They should have no problems in this game then, and could see it as an opportunity to get among the goals to increase momentum and confidence after a slow start.
For that reason, Victor Osimhen to score anytime appealed even at a short 10/11, but my favourite pick is ADEMOLA LOOKMAN 1+ ASSIST at 7/2.
The Atalanta man registered an assist in Nigeria's opener, creating two chances equating to 0.58 expected assists (xA), and while he didn't get his second assist of the tournament against Ivory Coast, he did create another three chances equating to 0.35 xA.
He is his nation's main creative threat and the 7/2 available is simply too big in a game where his side are 1/2 to score twice and 1/4 to win.
Odds correct at 1450 (21/01/24)
Gambia vs Cameroon
- Kick-off time: 17:00 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 12/5 | Draw 19/10 | Away 5/4
This is last chance saloon for both Gambia and Cameroon in terms of AFCON qualification, with a win needed if either are to progress. The chances are that Senegal (already qualified) and Guinea - who can guarantee second place with a point against the reigning champions - play out a draw, so Gambia and Cameroon are playing for third.
Only a win will do if they are to be one of the best third placed sides, so I reckon we can envisage an end-to-end encounter as both throw caution to the wind.
Cameroon haven't quite hit the heights of the last AFCON tournament, when they hosted and finished third, but this dynamic should suit a side who love to throw caution to the wind.
One of their standout players in this edition is former Tottenham winger GEORGES-KEVIN N'KOUDOU and he looks on the large side at 9/5 for A GOAL OR ASSIST.
He registered an assist in Cameroon's opener against Guinea while also taking three shots, racking up 0.18 xG and 0.42 xA, and while they were stifled for the most part against Senegal, N'Koudou did manage to get a shot off worth 0.25 xG while adding another 0.05 xA.
The winger looks overpriced to contribute to the scoring in what should be a goal-laden game.
Odds correct at 1700 (22/01/24)
Angola vs Burkina Faso
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 12/5 | Draw 19/10 | Away 5/4
It is extremely likely that both Angola and Burkina Faso will secure qualification to the last 16 given they have four points already, meaning they should progress, at worst case, as one of the best third place teams.
Now, with Algeria expected to beat Mauritania handily, and with the group decided on head-to-head and then goal difference and then goals scored, these two could draw and Burkina Faso would finish third.
I don't think Burkinabe will let that happen. The difference in draw looks stark. Win the group D and you get to play a third placed team from one of group B, E or F. Finish second and you'll face the winners of group E - most likely Mali, while a third place finish would see you drawn against either the winners of group A (likely Nigeria) or Cape Verde the winners of group B.
All the permutations are confusing, but basically the bottom line is that it would be beneficial for BURKINA FASO TO WIN here and secure top spot and an easier last 16 clash.
Burkinabe are a better team than Angola with more quality and were minutes away from beating top seeded Algeria last time out in a game they showcased all of their qualities.
Defensively they remain solid, and their opponents don't pose the same threat as the star-studded Algerians, with the Angolans only just squeezing past a poor Mauritania team.
The 11/8 price about Burkinabe to win looks a touch on the big side.
Odds correct at 1600 (22/01/24)
South Africa vs Tunisia
- Kick-off time: 17:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 13/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 11/10
Monday saw pure chaos in the final round of group games at AFCON.
Hosts Ivory Coast were thumped 4-0 by Equatorial Guinea leaving their qualification hopes hanging by a thread, reliant on results elsewhere to qualify as a third placed team, while Ghana were 2-0 up heading into added time against Mozambique and sealing second spot in their group, only to concede twice after 90 minutes to be all-but eliminated.
Egypt went 2-1 up late on Cape Verde and conceded late too, barely finishing second in that same group, but the point I'm making here is that desperation and game state is really contributing to high-scoring contests.
This edition of AFCON has been higher-scoring than usual anyway - through two matches in 2021 we were averaging 1.71 goals per game, it's up to 2.63 in 2023 - so adding in added incentive and 'need' to get results and we are seeing the goals increase again.
I think we can take advantage of that when South Africa take on Tunisia, with OVER 2.0 ASIAN GOALS appealing at just above even money.
By taking the Asian goal line we give ourselves some added security. If the game sees just two goals we get our money back, only getting a winner if there is three goals. If you don't have access to betting on the Asian lines, lowering the stake and backing Over 2.5 Goals at 7/4 is a good alternative.
Tunisia are in desperation mode. They sit bottom of group E and only a win will be enough to see them advance, so they will have to get away from their usual defence-first approach and really open up.
A draw would likely suit South Africa, but if they lose they risk being eliminated altogether.
This bet has won once, pushed twice and lost once in the sides combined AFCON games so far, but given their combined games have seen 10.2 xG - an average of 2.55 per game - I think the price and the line represent value here.
Odds correct at 1445 (23/01/24)
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