Liam Kelly looks at the Champions League meeting between AC Milan and Chelsea at the San Siro, picking out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 20/23 (Betfair Sportsbook)
After two disappointing results, Chelsea finally found the spark their Champions League campaign needed with a comfortable 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge last Wednesday.
Such is the UCL schedule, they immediately play the reverse fixture against AC Milan, seeking a quick double versus the Italian side to put them in the box seat in Group E.
Winning at the San Siro is a tough ask for any away side, however, which makes the match odds avoidable for the visitors in my opinion.
Still, it's clear from last week's match-up that Chelsea are the superior side, so a bet from a different market looks the play.
It's the 2.5 goal line that makes appeal in this one, set at almost a pick'em with bookmakers. UNDER 2.5 GOALS appears a shade big at the prices — notably the 20/23 with Betfair.
Milan could hardly get anything going as visitors in matchday three (xG: CHE 1.88 - 0.68 MIL), a showing of complete control by Chelsea in what was their best performance under Graham Potter yet.
Indeed, control is one of the positives Potter can offer as a tactician, ready to adapt at a moment's notice to keep his side in charge. It's one of the reasons behind Brighton's success as a defensive unit.
Signs are that he is bringing that solidity to Chelsea, who have allowed a total of just 2.57 expected goals against (xGA) in Potter's four games as manager.
AC Milan are slouches at the back, either, averaging 0.96 xGA per game across their opening nine Serie A matches. They held Chelsea to 10 shots in the reverse fixture, albeit three of them were big chances.
Back in Italy, and with both sides favoured to come out on top against the 'lesser' teams in the group after this game, unders is the selection
AC Milan v Chelsea score prediction and best bets
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 20/23 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Score prediction: AC Milan 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1530 BST (10/10/22)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
