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A case for why Aston Villa can win the Premier League title
Their best start to a Premier League season since 1998/99. Unbeaten in nine matches in all competitions. Level on points with Arsenal in third.
You might expect more media attention for the way Aston Villa have started their second full season under Unai Emery but instead the reaction has been muted.
This is of course a compliment to them. Villa are simply a good team now, expected both to occupy Champions League places and excel in that competition.
There is no room in the media for teams who conform to expectations, not with crisis everywhere you look.
But that isn’t the whole story. Villa have eluded attention partly because their performances haven’t actually matched results and, eight games in, their position in the table isn’t necessarily accurate.
Frankly, Villa haven’t really got going yet.
In the 2-1 win over West Ham, Tomas Soucek missed an open goal in the dying moments of a game the hosts deserved to draw.
Jhon Duran rescued flat performances against Leicester and Everton with late winners, the latter capping a total collapse from Sean Dyche’s side rather than a rousing comeback from Villa.
Villa were 1-0 down against Wolves until the 73rd minute, then they drew 2-2 with Ipswich (who were well worth three points) and slumped to a 0-0 draw against a very beatable Manchester United.
Most recently, on Saturday Villa benefited from a cruel deflection to equalise and saw Andreas Pereira miss a penalty before they eventually pulled away.
Premier League winner 24/25 odds (via Sky Bet)
- Manchester City - 5/4
- Liverpool - 9/4
- Arsenal - 5/2
- Chelsea - 28/1
- Tottenham - 40/1
- Aston Villa - 66/1
- Manchester United - 100/1
Odds correct at 1700 BST (21/10/24)
Ironically the sole defeat of the season, 2-0 at home to Arsenal, is the only game in which Villa have been at their best. If you were being really harsh, you could say it’s the only one of eight Premier League games Villa clearly deserved to win.
This analysis can be taken to mean Villa are over-performing and will soon regress to the mean, but far more likely Villa are effectively playing through a bad patch of form and still winning. In other words, Emery has built a team so brilliant that even 6/10 performances produce wins.
That isn’t just the mark of a good side. It’s the mark of a side with an outside chance of challenging for the title.
4️⃣ goal involvements in his last 4️⃣ Premier League games for @morgz_10 🥶 https://t.co/PAlxixYrsO pic.twitter.com/kh6m9uuifz
— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) October 20, 2024
Villa have been ruthless in attack, driven on predominantly by Youri Tielemans (in the form of his life) and Morgan Rogers, who together are creating enough chances to ensure that one of Villa’s two top-end strikers, Ollie Watkins or Duran, will get the goals Villa need to get over the line.
The forwards are on it, then, but there are issues elsewhere. Diego Carlos and Pau Torres have made errors. There’s an issue at right-back, where Villa tried and failed to upgrade in the summer. Amadou Onana has started well yet there is still a sense Villa miss Douglas Luiz’s metronomic presence.
But all of these problems are solvable. Jacob Ramsey is only just finding his rhythm again. Captain John McGinn has missed three of Villa’s league games. Ian Maatsen is yet to start a single one, while Tyrone Mings is close to recovery and Emi Buendia has looked sharp off the bench.
This is all reason for optimism; reason to believe that Villa simply haven’t clicked yet and that, when they do, they will go up several levels from a base that already has them in fourth.
Eight games in, a considerably deeper bench in 2024/25 - coupled with Emery’s detailed coaching now muscle memory - means Villa are capable of sweeping aside mid-tier clubs with just one or two strong individual performances. Imagine what they’ll be like when the whole team is gelling.
If Villa had exploded out of the blocks there would be write-ups everywhere declaring them as dark horses for the title, and yet it is precisely because Villa are not lighting games up – but are winning nonetheless – that we should be keeping an eye on their progress.
Aston Villa will only get better as the season goes on. They are already only four points behind Liverpool.
It’s time we start paying attention.
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