Harry Kane is now 7/2 to finish as the top scorer at Euro 2020 after his brace in England's quarter-final victory over Ukraine, but you may have also seen him quoted at 8/1 to win the Golden Boot. We explain the difference and suggest who is worth betting on in each market.
It made sense on Saturday night that Harry Kane's two-goal performance had fired him into Golden Boot contention, three years on from winning that very trophy at the 2018 World Cup. It was no surprise, then, that his price was cut to 7/2 to finish as Euro 2020 top scorer.
But there is a crucial (and big) distinction. These are two different markets.
Euro 2020: Golden Boot winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Cristiano Ronaldo - 1/5
- Harry Kane - 8/1
- Raheem Sterling - 9/1
- Kasper Dolberg - 33/1
- Ciro Immobile - 50/1
- Alvaro Morata - 66/1
- Ferran Torres - 100/1
- Lorenzo Insigne - 100/1
- Yussuf Poulsen - 250/1
- Manuel Locatelli - 500/1
Let's take Sky Bet for starters then, who are only taking bets on the goalscoring competition itself - the Golden Boot.
- The Golden Boot Award goes to the top goalscorer for Euro 2020.
- If there is more than one player with the same goals, the tie-breaker goes to the player who has contributed the most assists.
- If there is still more than one player, the award goes to the player who has played the least amount of time.
In this market, contrary to what intuition may tell you, given that Czech Republic's Patrik Schick scored to move level with Cristiano Ronaldo at the top of charts, and both Kane and Denmark striker Kasper Dolberg moved on to three goals, Saturday evening's action caused Ronaldo's price to dramatically shorten.
The sole reason for that was that Schick now quite literally cannot win the Golden Boot.
Both he and Ronaldo have scored five times, but the Portugal skipper's one assist means he is in the clear - at least for now.
Is Kane worth backing for the Golden Boot?
The huge jump in price from Ronaldo to the duo perceived to be his only realistic challengers, Kane and Raheem Sterling, would suggest that this is a market to now avoid, but this crossover in pricing offers an opportunity to really weigh up where the value lies.
Would it come as any great shock if England's captain scored twice more in the tournament? Not really.
But his lack of an assist has caused a huge disparity between his 7/2 in the top scorer betting, and 8/1 to win the Golden Boot.
Euro 2020: Top Scorer odds (via Betfair)
- Cristiano Ronaldo - 7/4
- Patrik Schick - 7/4
- Harry Kane - 7/2
- Raheem Sterling - 12/1
- Kasper Dolberg - 33/1
- Ciro Immobile - 40/1
- Alvaro Morata - 50/1
To explain why this is a sensible punt, we cannot separate ourselves from these two intertwined markets - which brings us on to 'top scorer', where we'll take Betfair as our reference point.
Like the rest of the bookies offering this market, they are certainly getting a little twitchy about Kane finding his shooting boots in England's past two matches.
He was available at 50/1 (as long as 100/1 for the Golden Boot) with some bookmakers following a blank group stage. At 7/2, he simply cannot be considered a value bet to score two more goals, while also hoping - however unlikely - no-one else scores three or four.
It pains me to write this, but England may only play one more game.
What is a surprise to me is that Ronaldo shoots up from 1/5 to 7/4 (Golden Boot to top scorer) purely because of the assist he has to his name, especially considering that Kane (14) recorded more assists for Tottenham in the Premier League last season than any other player in England's top flight.
To me, that makes it worth a small-stakes play in one, but not the other - and the same goes for Ronaldo, only to a slightly heftier chunk of change.
Ronaldo and Schick are exactly the same bet in the top scorer market having been eliminated on five goals, so there is no separating them.
If you choose to sit this one out (and I wouldn't blame you given its painful confusion levels) but already have some skin in the Golden Boot/top scorer game, I'd check your coupon now.
And if you tore up your Schick top scorer slip thinking it was for the Golden Boot, try and find some glue.
Odds correct as of 1225 BST (04/07/21)
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