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James Wade and Luke Humphries could be big dangers (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)
James Wade and Luke Humphries could be big dangers (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)

World Matchplay predictions: Paul Nicholson's verdicts for every game and who he thinks will contest the Blackpool final

By Paul Nicholson
Darts
Sat July 15, 2023 · 1y ago

Paul Nicholson analyses the 2023 Betfred World Matchplay draw and predicts which players he feels will make their way through the tournament.

The World Matchplay is the second-best tournament in darts and anyone who thinks otherwise is just wrong.

This has such a special history because it has been played at the Winter Gardens every year since 1994, apart from the COVID year, and now we’re ready for the 30th edition.

This is obviously the only major of the darting season that’s staged in the height of the summer so players do need to cope with the heat. This old venue gets very hot when temperatures outside reach 30 degrees and if you struggle in the heat, this is not a place that you're going to be able to thrive.

Top five major darts champions!

This tournament is also the culmination of the first six months of the season and you will be punished if you’ve not been shrewd with your schedule management.If you've done too much and come into this flat, you can't win it. You will possibly need nine days of energy and you won’t have it towards the end of the week – or even earlier – if you’ve played too many tournaments and exhibitions in the past few months.

When you look at some of the head to heads in round one, you think about what kind of engine these guys have got coming into this. The likes of Joe Cullen, James Wade and Luke Humphries have all managed their calendars well and taken sizeable breaks at various points so I think those guys could be incredibly dangerous.

I can't ever remember there being a stronger field at Blackpool in terms of the world rankings because 30 of the top 32 have qualified. This makes it even more difficult than usual to predict who will be lifting the Phil Taylor Trophy…

QUARTER ONE

  • (1) Michael Smith v Steve Beaton
    Verdict: Smith to win
  • (16) James Wade v Chris Dobey
    Verdict: Wade to win
  • (8) Danny Noppert v Martin Schindler
    Verdict: Noppert to win
  • (9) Nathan Aspinall v Krzysztof Ratajski
    Verdict: Aspinall to win

Michael Smith will look at this quarter and think there's a lot of banana skins in there. First and foremost, he's playing against Steve Beaton and everybody's going to love the fact that he’s back at the Winter Gardens. Michael will be fancied to win that game because he's in better form and showed during the most recent European Tour action with a couple of ton+ averages that his new equipment is very effective. That's not a negative factor for me.

He's been gradually working with them for a period of time. It's not as if he picked them up on July 1st and said: “Right, we're going to go with them now.” He has been using them in the background, getting used to the intricacies of them. However, there are other people in this quarter that can push him.

There’s a lot of people talking about James Wade right now.

WHO'S HIT MOST NINE-DART FINISHES?

He played brilliantly at the European Darts Matchplay and despite losing in the semi-finals to Luke Humphries, he averaged 109 and hit 10 180s! When does he hit that many?

I mentioned during commentary that he was showing a different level of freshness and his darts were standing up again like they did in his younger days when he used to destroy people.

That's why he scored more than in more recent times. And if he's got that scoring prowess back, everyone's got a problem.

He also loves Blackpool. His wife is from Blackpool, he’s obviously more familiar with the venue than anyone else and everyone in his quarter might be thinking the old Wade is back.

The Machine also won't like being 16th seed and with a point to prove, I think that's another reason why he can come through this section.

· Verdict: James Wade to win quarter one

QUARTER TWO

  • (4) Gerwyn Price v Stephen Bunting
    Verdict: Price
  • (13) Joe Cullen v Mike De Decker
    Verdict: Cullen
  • (5) Rob Cross v Daryl Gurney
    Verdict: Cross
  • (12) Dave Chisnall v Gary Anderson
    Verdict: Anderson

Where do you start with this quarter!? We're talking about a section that has the two highest averaging players in the world this season in Gerwyn Price and Gary Anderson.

Price will be well rested having not played since mid-June and is searching for that first World Matchplay title having finished runner-up last year. He really wants this and he'd also be quite a popular champion too having won a lot of people over this year, which has been tremendous to see.

Gary is playing at a level this season which is worrying everyone and I think not being picked for the Premier League has allowed him to play enough regular competitive action without the same kind of travelling and therefore he's staying fresh.

He's obviously not the youngest player in the world and when he was in the Premier League, he was probably traveling and playing too much. Inherently he believes he's still better than a lot of the younger players and at the moment he's proving it.

I also think practicing so much with Ryan Searle has got a lot to do with this. Gary genuinely respects Ryan and likes spending time with him and now you can see the phenomenal impact it's having on his game.

I know Price and Anderson have their history and although they are fine now, a quarter-final between them in Blackpool would be quite spectacular.

I can also see a Joe Cullen v Anderson quarter-final which would obviously be a repeat of their epic clash back in 2018.

Cullen has played a lot of darts this year, including every European Tour event, but that's partly down to not being involved in the Premier League this season.

Rob Cross v Daryl Gurney is a rematch of one of the greatest ever World Matchplay semi-finals back in 2019, which Rob won after an unforgettable comeback whilst Dave Chisnall gets the short straw because Anderson was the unseeded player that everyone wanted to avoid.

It really is a quarter of peril.

· Verdict: Gary Anderson to win quarter two

QUARTER THREE

  • (2) Peter Wright v Andrew Gilding
    Verdict: Gilding
  • (15) Ryan Searle v Raymond van Barneveld
    Verdict: Searle
  • (7) Jonny Clayton v Gabriel Clemens
    Verdict: Clayton
  • (10) Dimitri Van den Bergh v Ross Smith
    Verdict: Smith

This quarter has two former World Matchplay champions in it and this year's UK Open winner - but I'm not sure any of these eight will be lifting the trophy.

We still don't really know which Peter Wright will show up after a very up and down season and although Andrew Gilding isn't in premium form, he won't be perturbed by this test.

I think Ryan Searle v Raymond van Barneveld has got plenty of legs in it and there is a danger Barney could get swept away with the romantic side of his comeback. If he brings his focus, anything is possible. Another big stage 9-darter even.

Ryan is still seen as a threatening player but he's gone under the radar so far with some of the darts he's playing so this clash really could go either way.

I do believe that Jonny Clayton will come through his match with Gabriel Clemens as he continues to get used to Blackpool - albeit at a much slower rate than some others - and should have a great chance of reaching the semi-finals here for the first time.

And then speaking of getting used to Blackpool in a fast way, Dimitri Van den Bergh faces Ross Smith in a game that will see a lot of 180s.

However, Ross hasn't been quite as explosive as last year and has lost too many close games that he could’ve have won. I feel he's putting himself under too much pressure and unless he starts to relax again, Dimitri will pounce on any signs of frustration.

However if he can go up there and have some fun against a player who does have the ranking pressure of defending a lot of money, maybe he can get back to showing us why he's the European champion.

Verdict: Jonny Clayton to win quarter three

QUARTER FOUR

  • (3) Michael van Gerwen v Brendan Dolan
    Verdict: MVG
  • (14) Damon Heta v Josh Rock
    Verdict: Heta
  • (6) Luke Humphries v Jose de Sousa
    Verdict: Humphries
  • (11) Dirk van Duijvenbode v Kim Huybrechts
    Verdict: Van Duijvenbode

Michael van Gerwen was very impressive in winning the Poland Darts Masters but there still has to be question marks over whether he can last the pace and testing schedule of Blackpool following his recent dental and jaw surgery.

He didn't look comfortable when he was playing in Trier the previous weekend and will need more treatment after the World Matchplay.

Having surgery mid-season, you automatically think "right, I'm not going to be 100% for a while." And he's doing everything in his power to make sure he's as close to 100% as he possibly can be from the first day of the tournament.

If he wins against Brendan Dolan, whoever he faces out of Damon Heta or Josh Rock will cause him problems.

Everyone will probably pick Josh to come through that clash but it could well be Heta's turn to do what Joe Cullen did to him last year when he was the favourite.

Don't forget, debutants don't often have it easy at Blackpool and although Josh is playing well at the minute, he will be given a stern test over at least 17 legs.

Luke Humphries will understandably be a very warm favourite against Jose de Sousa, who just isn't firing 180s or high averages like he's done in previous seasons, but he did make a pro tour semi-final in the last few days.

Luke has won a couple of titles in recent weeks and is abundantly confident right now as he bids for his maiden major title.

Dirk van Duijvenbode is also a major player in this quarter and could've been celebrating that European Tour title that Humphries won the other week having missed four match darts in the final but he does have three other wins this season.

Although he might be nursing a little hangover from that defeat, he will open up against Kim Huybrechts, who has won just once in eight appearances in Blackpool.

Verdict: Luke Humphries to win quarter four

WHO WILL WIN THE WORLD MATCHPLAY?

Semi-Finals

  • James Wade v Gary Anderson
    Verdict: Wade to win
  • Jonny Clayton v Luke Humphries
    Verdict: Humphries to win

Final

  • James Wade v Luke Humphries
    Verdict: It'll go at least 34 legs!

World Matchplay History

World Matchplay Most Titles

  • Phil Taylor - 16
  • Michael van Gerwen - 3
  • Rod Harrington - 2
  • Peter Wright - 1
  • Dimitri Van den Bergh - 1
  • Rob Cross - 1
  • Gary Anderson - 1
  • Larry Butler - 1
  • Peter Evison - 1
  • Colin Lloyd - 1
  • James Wade - 1

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