World Matchplay darts 2024: Final predictions for Luke Humphries v Michael van Gerwen, betting tips, odds, statistics, H2H record & Sky Sports TV time

By Chris Hammer

20:16 · SUN July 21, 2024

Luke Humphries and Michael van Gerwen collide in Sunday night's 2024 Betfred World Matchplay final in Blackpool so check out our preview with statistics and tips.

Darts betting tips: World Matchplay final

1pt Humphries (-5.5) to beat van Gerwen at 9/4 (Betway, bet365)

1pt Humphries to win and hit 12+ 180s at 5/2 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

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Luke Humphries v Michael van Gerwen

Venue: Winter Gardens, Blackpool
TV Coverage and start time: Sky Sports (2000 BST)
Format: Best of 35 legs. Must be won by two clear legs, with up to a maximum of five additional legs being played before the sixth additional leg is sudden-death

Luke Humphries is bidding to become just the fourth player in history to win both the World Championship and World Matchplay in the same year when he faces Michael van Gerwen, who is one of the illustrious three alongside Phil Taylor and Peter Wright to have achieved the feat.

Cool Hand is also chasing his fifth ranked major in less than a year having also lifted the World Grand Prix, Grand Slam of Darts and Players Championship Finals trophies in what could soon be classed as a dominant 'era' at the top of the world rankings rather than a spell.

Van Gerwen, however, upset the odds earlier in the tournament to dispose of Luke Littler, he'll be eager to prove another point by lifting a fourth World Matchplay crown.

Humphries v MVG: Head-to-head record

Overall Head-to-Head: 12-13
Televised meetings: 8-6
All Finals: 2-1
Televised finals: 1-0
2024 meetings: 7-1 (TV: 5-1)

The fact Michael van Gerwen has the overall advantage when it comes to H2H is pretty meaningless when you consider Luke Humphries has won eight of their last nine meetings dating back to the dramatic conclusion of the Players Championship Finals in November.

Cool Hand also brushed him aside 10-5 in the Premier League semi-finals and blitzed him 8-1 in a final of a European Tour event back in April so he's certainly got the psychological advantage from this perspective.

2024 World Matchplay Statistics

Tournament Average
Humphries: 102.47
Van Gerwen: 97.99
100+ averages (highest & lowest match average)
Humphries: 4 (108.76 v Ricardo Pietreczko & 100.64 v James Wade)
Van Gerwen: 1 (101.93 v Luke Littler & 95.49 v Joe Cullen)
Tournament 180s (180s per leg)
Humphries: 30 (0.35)
Clayton: 29 (0.32)
Checkout %
Humphries: 44.26%
Van Gerwen: 33.96%
100+ Checkouts
Humphries: 4 (High: 164)
Van Gerwen: 9 (High: 161)

The statistical signs all point to Luke Humphries completing the World Championship-World Matchplay double as well.

It speaks volumes that he's odds-on to average over 100 in a best-of-33 leg format and should he do that, then he'll become only the second player in history - behind Phil Taylor - to achieve the feat in all five matches at the Winter Gardens.

His tournament average of 102.47 might not be in the same league as that the Power would frequently managed during his astonishing Blackpool dominance but it's still an almighty effort over these kind of distances.

His 180 per leg rate is also higher than MVG although the Dutchman has been far more prolific than usual over the previous rounds except in the semi-final when he surprisingly only managed five in 30 legs.

His finishing was also very poor against Bully Boy as he missed 40 of his 57 attempts at doubles to bring his tournament checkout percentage down to a very lowly 33.96% while Humphries is at a highly clinical 44.26%.

The only area MVG bosses is 100+ checkouts having hit nine in 91 legs compared to Humphries' tally of four in 85.

CLICK HERE to bet on Humphries to win and hit over 12+ 180s with Sky Bet

Humphries v MVG: Routes to the final

Luke Humphries

R1: 10-4 v Pietreczko
Average: 108.76
180s: 6
100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 68)
Checkout %: 58.82%
R2: 11-7 v Bunting
Average: 102.34
180s: 4
100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 90)
Checkout %: 39.29%
QF: 16-10 v Van den Bergh
Average: 101.21
180s: 12
100+ Checkouts: 3 (High: 164)
Checkout %: 45.71%
SF: 17-10 v Wade
Average: 100.64
180s: 8
100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 156)
Checkout %: 40.48%

Luke Humphries' run to his first World Matchplay final has pretty comfortable in terms of scorelines and when any opponent ever asked serious questions, Cool Hand managed to keep them at arm's reach.

Once he gets ahead, he's a ridiculously hard man to stop due to his relentless consistency and not even a revived James Wade could reel him despite averaging over 102.

Michael van Gerwen

R1: 10-6 v Littler
Average: 101.93
180s: 5
100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 146)
Checkout %: 43.48%
R2: 11-8 v Cullen
Average: 95.49
180s: 8
100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 151)
Checkout %: 44%
QF: 16-10 v Gilding
Average: 96.99
180s: 11
100+ Checkouts: 2 (High: 136)
Checkout %: 29.63%
SF: 17-13 v Smith
Average: 98.43
180s: 5
100+ Checkouts: 3 (High: 161)
Checkout %: 29.82%

Michael van Gerwen's best all-round performance came against Luke Littler but overall you could say he hasn't needed to be at his very best against subsequent opposition.

Michael Smith will feel he missed a big opportunity in last night's semi-final as he didn't reach the standards he sets himself while MVG looked very beatable, especially with such poor finishing.

If the Dutchman continues to play to the levels we've seen, then he will need Humphries to have a rare off day.

Humphries v MVG: Final prediction

Luke Humphries was my outright selection at the start of the World Matchplay and there's precious little evidence to suggest he'll fall short at the final hurdle.

Cool Hand is back playing the dominant darts that saw him win all those major titles, including the World Championship, and over best-of-33 legs, it'll take something special from MVG to stop him.

The Dutchman has obviously shown flashes of brilliance but that consistency of old - which Humphries now has in abundance - just isn't there and I can only see one man lifting the Phil Taylor Trophy tonight by a clear margin.

Verdict: 18-11