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World Matchplay 2022: Darts predictions, betting tips and preview for the Sky Sports-televised major at the Winter Gardens in Blackpool
The Sky Sports-televised World Matchplay gets under way this weekend and our Chris Hammer brings you his quarter-by-quarter preview and tips.
The iconic Winter Gardens in Blackpool plays host to the 29th staging of the PDC's second-longest running major as 32 of the biggest names in darts set their sights on the Phil Taylor Trophy.
There have only been 11 different winners of the Blackpool showpiece - thanks largely to Taylor triumphing on 16 occasions - and only six of those are in this year's 32-man field: Michael van Gerwen, Peter Wright, Dimitri Van den Bergh, Rob Cross, Gary Anderson and James Wade.
Here, Chris Hammer takes you through each quarter of the draw with a range of seasonal stats and facts before picking his outright selections...
Darts betting tips: World Matchplay
2pts Jonny Clayton to win the World Matchplay at 8/1 (Paddy Power, BetVictor, Coral)
1pt Michael Smith to win the World Matchplay at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt each-way Damon Heta to win the World Matchplay at 33/1 (Sky Bet 1/3, 1,2)
1pt Damon Heta to win the second quarter at 17/2 (Sky Bet)
Also Watch: World Matchplay predictions
Former major winner and leading pundit Paul Nicholson joins Sporting Life darts expert Chris Hammer and show host Dom Newton to run through each quarter of the draw with statistics and facts to predict who will reach the semi-finals and then the eventual finalists and champion.
World Matchplay: Quarter One
- (1) Peter Wright v Madars Razma
- (16) Krzysztof Ratajski v Stephen Bunting
- (8) Jonny Clayton v Rowby-John Rodriguez
- (9) Dimitri Van den Bergh v Callan Rydz
In every quarter of this preview, I've included the key seasonal statistics for every player thanks to the help of darts statistician Carl Fletcher, who will also be writing daily previews for us at Sporting Life throughout the tournament. The seasonal average and 180s per leg stats are for matches they've played in all PDC competitions - majors, Players Championships, European Tour and World Series - while the checkout percentages are for the stage events only (majors, European Tour and World Series). The latter stat is therefore more reliable when it comes to the bigger name players who will have featured in more of those than the lesser names but even so it gives you a nice gage of where their strengths lie this year.
So let's firstly take a look at the stats for the quarter one hopefuls...
Defending champion Peter Wright is the marginal 13/8 favourite to come through this quarter ahead of Jonny Clayton (15/8) but that's largely because the Ferret is expected to have a much tougher second-round clash against the 2019 winner Dimitri Van den Bergh, who recently returned to form with two World Series titles in Copenhagen and Amsterdam.
Statistically this trio have been the strongest players by far in this section although my selection Clayton must hit the ground running against Rowby-John Rodriguez following the Austrian's confidence-boosting run to the European Darts Matchplay final, where he was pipped by the sensational Luke Humphries in a deciding leg.
Surprisingly the Welshman hasn't won a title of any kind this season and the first final he reached was Monday's Players Championship event in Barnsley, losing to Brendan Dolan, but statistically his season average of 97.27 is fourth highest while he also comfortably topped the Premier League regular season table due to his relentless consistency against the world's best.
He averaged 97.98 across those 36 matches which is phenomenal when you consider the fatigue factor that became evident with many of the players during that hectic phase of the season, and he also won more nights than anyone with four. His 180s per leg ratio of 0.28 was significantly higher than the 0.24 he's managed in all competitions - and you could say that's just another small indicator as to how he raises his game for the big occasions these days.
Of his six titles in that career-launching 2021 of his, four were majors and just two were Players Championship events so I'm not too concerned about the lack of those so far this year.
I'd expect Wright, who starts off against a player he's beaten six times out of six in Madars Razma, to make his way through to the quarter-finals but he was incredibly inconsistent during the Premier League and even missed out on a place in the play-offs.
We all know what the world champion can do on his day but there are more of the sloppy performances creeping in and that's why I'll take him on with Clayton.
Verdict: Back Jonny Clayton to win the quarter with Sky Bet
World Matchplay: Quarter Two
- (4) Michael van Gerwen v Adrian Lewis
- (13) Joe Cullen v Damon Heta
- (5) James Wade v Martin Lukeman
- (12) Luke Humphries v Nathan Aspinall
The most eye-catching stat to sum up why this has been widely dubbed 'the quarter of death' is that six of these players have combined to win 18 titles this season already! And one of the two that have yet to break their ducks is James Wade!
Martin Lukeman must be wondering what he did to enrage the darting gods so much and even though he's had a very impressive year just to qualify for his first World Matchplay - including a run to the German Darts Grand Prix final - I'm not sure many will be putting much on him at 100/1 to reach the semi-finals.
Michael van Gerwen has won the most titles this year with six and there was a sense that his Premier League success - his first major trophy since the 2020 Players Championship Finals - could drive him closer to the kind of form that helped him dominate several years ago.
His seasonal average tops the charts but he's only played once since he dramatically survived a match dart against Joe Cullen in the Premier League final due to surgery on his injured throwing arm and that was a 6-4 defeat to Danny Noppert in the Dutch Darts Masters, averaging a steady 96.78.
He didn't play in any of the four recent Players Championship tournaments so it'll be interesting to see what kind of shape he's in against Adrian Lewis in a first-round blockbuster.
MVG has won 43 of their 61 matches - which include three Premier League draws - and 23 of those have come in their 31 televised meetings. Jackpot, however, will be in confident mood after winning his first PDC title since 2019 at the weekend and I really wouldn't be surprised to see him spring a surprise that would really raise the heat inside the Winter Gardens.
Luke Humphries is comfortably the second favourite to come through this quarter at 3/1 following a sensational first half of the season in which he's won five titles, including three on the stage of the European Tour. Incredible when you think he hadn't won a senior PDC event before this year.
He's pretty much turned into a darting beast in 2022. All his key stats below are in the top three but on top of that, his confidence and stage presence look unbreakable at the moment.
Many darts fans will be backing Humphries to win the whole tournament and I certainly wouldn't try to put anyone off doing that based on what we've seen from him, but I'm actually going to side with Damon Heta.
The Australian, who first shot to darting fame when upsetting huge odds to win the 2019 Brisbane Darts Masters, has been rapidly rising the ranks since joining the PDC circuit and carved out his third major quarter-final run at year's UK Open.
Heta won his third title at a Players Championship event back in March but a potentially a career-changing moment came in the recent World Cup of Darts, where he teamed up with Simon Whitlock to overcome Belgium, England and tournament favourites Wales in a gripping final.
We all saw the impact winning a World Cup had on Clayton's career back in 2020 and I feel the same could happen to the Heat, even as early as this week despite it being such a tough quarter of the draw.
Heta's seasonal average of 97.99 is second only to Michael van Gerwen and that's a statistic made more impressive by the fact he's played more games than anyone outside of the Premier League eight. To be that consistent for over six months of the season is very special, and it's down to scoring power and clinical finishing in equal measure.
He starts against Premier League runner-up Joe Cullen, who has also enjoyed a brilliant year, but a draw like this at least ensures he hits the ground running.
World Matchplay: Quarter Three
- (2) Gerwyn Price v Martin Schindler
- (15) Dave Chisnall v Kim Huybrechts
- (7) José de Sousa v Gabriel Clemens
- (10) Rob Cross v Chris Dobey
Without wanting to sound disrespectful, this is statistically the weakest quarter and Gerwyn Price might well be relieved to find himself in it.
Despite having a disappointing season by his sky high standards, he's won both of the titles achieved by the eight players in this section of the draw in 2022 while Rob Cross (3), Dave Chisnall (1) and Martin Schindler (1) are the only others who have reached a final.
The Iceman had actually managed just one title at this same stage of 2021 but his average was two points higher than it is now and we've just not seen the consistent blockbuster standard that we've come to expect.
Price initially looked like he’d have another incredible year back in February when he went nine-dart crazy in Belfast before winning a European Tour event by beating Peter Wright in the final but since then he's endured his fair share of struggles since, including injury.
However, he's back to full health and will be hoping to restore any lost confidence at a venue where he's never gone beyond the quarter-finals. Martin Schindler is a tough opening tie but he did average 117 against him at the World Cup which was a televised personal best.
Cross and Chizzy are regarded as the biggest threats to Price in this quarter but it'll be hard to choose between the pair should the Iceman melt out of contention.
Verdict: Price to come through the quarter but Chizzy for a spot of value
World Matchplay: Quarter Four
- (3) Michael Smith v Andrew Gilding
- (14) Dirk van Duijvenbode v Ryan Searle
- (6) Gary Anderson v Daryl Gurney
- (11) Danny Noppert v Brendan Dolan
Michael Smith is still seeking his maiden major trophy having come so agonisingly close at the UK Open back in March but after a frustrating Premier League campaign, Bully Boy found a purple patch of form that will fill him with renewed belief heading to Blackpool.
As well as winning the last regular season night of the Premier League when it looked as though he'd be the only player to end the campaign empty handed, Smith picked up five titles including the prestigious US Darts Masters and a European Tour crown in the Netherlands.
That was made more impressive by edging out home favourite Danny Noppert 8-7 in a repeat of the UK Open final and it wouldn't be much of a surprise if the duo met for a place in the semi-finals here.
I must to draw your attention to a potential second-round meeting with Dirk van Duijvenbode, who is hitting 180s at an astonishing rate this season. If that happens you should be looking at backing Smith to win and van Duijvenbode to hit most maximums - or go as high as the bookies offer on the match 180 count.
Lower down Daryl Gurney has a good TV record against Gary Anderson, who has really struggled this season, but ultimately I feel Noppert will be standing in Smith’s way for a place in the semi finals.
The Winter Gardens is the scene of one of Smith's seven major final defeats - losing 18-13 to Rob Cross back in 2019 - and considering Blackpool's proximity to home, it would be a fitting venue for the St Helens ace to break his duck.
World Matchplay: Who reaches the final and wins?
My predicted semi-finals are Jonny Clayton v Damon Heta in the top half and Gerwyn Price v Michael Smith in the bottom.
Although Clayton doesn't actually have a great record whatsoever at the Winter Gardens, this is actually only the second time he's appearing there with his major-winning reputation so I feel we'll see him banish any demons about playing on this stage - if indeed there are any. The Ferret is so unflappable, he doesn't seem the type of player who worries about where he's playing or have any other mental blocks.
His overall major record since the start of 2021 is envied by most and his experience should stand him in good stead. However, given Heta's huge price to win the title, I am going to advise a small each-way stake on the Aussie to shoot to darting stardom.
Of the 16 players in the bottom half of the draw, I'm more confident about Smith's chances than anyone else - including Gerwyn Price - so it's a no brainer for me to include him on the staking plan.
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