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World Grand Prix Darts: Free betting tips, odds & predictions as Michael van Gerwen bids to defend his title
The double-start World Grand Prix gets under way in Dublin this weekend and our darts expert Chris Hammer picks out his best bets, including 9/1 and 11/1 selections.
* Written before Gary Anderson withdrew due to the impending birth of his second child with partner Rachel
A frustrated Michael van Gerwen has a major point to prove and I pity those who cross his path in Dublin this week when he will seek a fourth World Grand Prix title in six years.
In a tournament where 90-plus averages are hard enough to come by due to the awkward double-start, set-play format, MVG's relentless high-scoring and ruthless finishing means he's clearly more capable of getting close to - or even surpassing - three figures than anyone else.
This event has scrambled the minds and upset the rhythm of the very best players down the years when they struggle on the starting doubles, especially during the mentally-draining longer matches of the latter stages.
Last year the Dutchman never dipped below an average of 97 while he peaked at a breathtaking 103.09 against Simon Whitlock in the quarter-finals and then produced one of the finest performances ever seen in the competition's history, which dates back to 1998, as he thrashed Gary Anderson 5-2 in the final with an average of 100.29.
That's the highest ever achieved in the final - eclipsing Phil Taylor's 100.17 way back in 2002 - and while his overall level of play this year hasn't scaled the dizzying 2016 heights week in week out, we should expect more fireworks over the coming week.
Because make no mistake about it, he'll be more motivated than usual (assuming that's even possible) to add yet another major televised title to his resume after a handful of humbling moments in 2017. And he'll want to do it in emphatic fashion, too.
Despite winning 13 PDC tournaments this season, his dominance has been somewhat questioned after being so memorably battered 16-6 by the soon-to-be retired Phil Taylor at the World Matchplay while both The Power and his old Dutch foe Raymond van Barneveld beat him at the recent Champions League of Darts to send him crashing out in the group stages.
The implications of that happening in front of the wider terrestrial TV audience won't be lost on him either.
Earlier in the calendar, he lost his grip on the UK Open title due to an injury-enforced absence and he only just retained the Premier League title by the skin of his teeth after Peter Wright choked on all six of his match darts. They all count but no great champion wants to win by being let out of jail.
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After his debacle at the Champions League of Darts, which had followed impressive back-to-back successes on the European Tour, he opted to miss last weekend's International Darts Open to recharge the batteries and he'll be ready to blast out of the blocks in what is one of his favourite majors.
Crucially, there is no Taylor to antagonise him as the 57-year-old decides to prioritise the other winter majors in his final months before retirement.
In terms of reaching the final, the only potential sticking point in his half of the draw would be a quarter-final with potentially either Barney or the ever-improving PDC rookie Rob Cross, who won his third Players Championship event of the season as recently as Friday in Dublin, but he'll have hit full stride by then and I don't think there's anyone in the second quarter who should be able to beat him in a best-of-seven-sets showdown in this unique format.
Obviously, Robert Thornton famously did once - in the 2015 final no less - but the Scotsman has really struggled with his confidence and form since then while Dave Chisnall, who defeated him in the 2013 quarter-finals, isn't anywhere near consistent enough on his doubles these days.
I must also add on Cross that he has now been cut to 33/1 from 50/1 after Friday's success, in which he pummelled Peter Wright 6-2 in the final with an average of 113, plus he managed 109 in the semis and thrashed both Mensur Suljovic (6-1) and Vincent van der Voort, who beat Michael van Gerwen earlier in the day, by a resounding 6-0 scoreline.
That said, such is the nature of darts, it would have been a completely different story had James Wade not missed seven match darts to beat him in the last 16.
MVG's half of the draw
- Michael van Gerwen (1) v John Henderson
- Alan Norris v Justin Pipe
- Raymond van Barneveld (8) v Kyle Anderson
- Steve Beaton v Rob Cross
- Dave Chisnall (5) v Jelle Klaasen
- Robert Thornton v Kim Huybrechts
- Adrian Lewis (4) v Daryl Gurney
- Joe Cullen v Darren Webster
Unlike any other event in recent times, van Gerwen is priced up at almost even money which I feel is an overreaction to his defeats against a legend who isn't even a risk to him here. Nobody else comes anywhere near to boasting a similarly good head-to-head record against him than Taylor, who has remarkably won seven of their last 10 meetings,
Of his most likely final opponents in the eyes of the bookies, Anderson has openly admitted to not being a fan of this event despite reaching the final last year as it does disrupt his speedy flow, while Wright has a shocking record in Dublin having never ventured beyond the second round so I'd expect his hopes to be dashed by in-form Suljovic or his bitter Scottish rival before he even reaches MVG.
So to cut this particular story to a halt - I can't see past van Gerwen and he really should be shorter than 5/6.
But my main two bets come in the second quarter of the draw where both Kim Huybrechts and Joe Cullen are eye-catching prices at 9/1 and 11/1 respectively.
Anyone who followed my International Darts Open tips last weekend will have been celebrating a little profit after 25/1 each-way selection Huybrechts reached the final, only to lose an 11th-leg decider to Wright, who clinched his 10th PDC title of the season.
The Belgian was bidding to banish memories of the 2016 final when he missed seven match darts against Suljovic but at least on this occasion he didn't reach a shot at a double.
Overall he enjoyed a much-needed return to form ahead of the busy winter period of TV majors, beating the likes of Ian White, Gerwyn Price and the impressive Cullen in Riesa and he's certainly one of those players who enjoys clusters of purple patches - so I reckon he's worth considering to do a bit of damage in Dublin.
Last year's aforementioned run to the final was swiftly followed by back-to-back semi-final appearances on the European stage before reaching the last eight of the World Grand Prix, where he averaged almost 100 in a 3-0 win over Stephen Bunting before bowing out to eventual runner-up Anderson.
In 2017 he's enjoyed a couple of form bursts, most notably helping Belgium to the semi-finals of the World Cup with some superb displays.
His miserable Premier League campaign, which was understandably affected by the illness of his late mother, saw his stock fall somewhat in the eyes of punters and bookies alike and I'd say his talents are being underrated.
Huybrechts will know it's highly unlikely he'll be included in next year's eight-man line-up unless he produces some fireworks at the forthcoming majors, so his motivation levels will be as high as anyone right now.
He's in the same half as MVG so he's not worth bothering with at 50/1 to reach the final (or 150/1 to win it) but he can win his quarter at a generous 9/1.
His main rivals in this segment of the draw are perceived to be a rusty Adrian Lewis (3/1) and out-of-form duo Dave Chisnall (100/30) and Daryl Gurney (4/1), who were both shocked at the weekend by European Tour debutant Dennis Nilsson - a former runner-up in Sweden's Strongest Man competition!
I am a fan of Gurney - and backed him at 10/1 to win his quarter in the World Matchplay - but he's too short a price in this same market this time given he's just gone off the boil a little.
Jelle Klaasen, an 8/1 shot, has endured a poor campaign so I believe the Belgian's biggest threat is his prospective quarter-final opponent Joe Cullen.
The Rockstar is a big 11/1 himself despite winning two PDC titles this year and looked very good indeed last weekend in Riesa, averaging 113 in one match and missing out on a nine-dart finish against Huybrechts in the semi-finals by a whisker.
Cullen has shown plenty of promise and potential over the past year and I feel he's almost ready to reach the next level on the big stage.
The 28-year-old should fancy his chances against Darren Webster in the opening round and then I'd fancy him to spring a surprise against either Lewis or Gurney before hopefully meeting Huybrechts in the quarters.
Also it's worth noting that Cullen's checkout percentage in majors and European Tour events this year is an impressive 40.31% and only White, MVG and Cristo Reyes are higher out of those competing at the Citywest Hotel Convention Centre. The obvious caveat to that is he hasn't had as many attempts at doubles in the same kind of pressure situations as the likes of Anderson and Wright.
As far as that bottom half of the draw is concerned, Suljovic is a tempting proposition to reach the final following his heroics at the Champions League of Darts, where he beat Anderson (twice), Wright, Chisnall and Barney to make a mockery of his pre-tournament 40/1 odds.
Bottom half of the draw
- Gary Anderson (2) v Richard North
- Simon Whitlock v Christian Kist
- Michael Smith (7) v Gerwyn Price
- Benito van de Pas v Cristo Reyes
- Mensur Suljovic (6) v Ian White
- Steve West v James Wade
- Peter Wright (3) v Stephen Bunting
- Mervyn King v Ronny Huybrechts
Click here for the full tournament draw & daily schedule
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He may well be a late bloomer at the age 45 but his scoring, finishing and ability to hit high checkouts under pressure is now proven on the big stage, plus he reached the semi-finals here on his Dublin debut last year - so the format doesn't seem to bother him.
The Austrian, who comes into this event on immediate form having won Saturday's Players Championship event, is more appealing at 7/1 in Sky Bet's 'reach the final' market than Anderson and Wright are at 6/4 and 5/2 respectively but even so it's a tall order.
He faces Ian White, who has the best checkout percentage out of anyone in majors this year, in the opening round while two-time winner Wade could well be a tricky customer in the second.
Sure, The Machine hasn't been operating at the levels you'd expect from a player of his calibre and historic achievements but generally speaking he's been an unflappable character in his event with two titles, a runners-up cheque and two semi-final runs - although admittedly he lost in the opening round in 2015 and 2016.
However, Wade knows he's in grave danger of being dropped from the Premier League Darts line-up next year unless he reminds everyone of his star quality before 2017 - and you can't underestimate that motivation for the world's top players.
He managed a couple of runs to the semi-finals of the Auckland and Perth Darts Masters during the summer and hasn't competed since - so he'll be mentally fresh and ready.
Recommended bets
1pt Kim Huybrechts to win the second quarter at 9/1
1pt Joe Cullen to win the second quarter at 11/1
Click here to back the selections with Sky Bet
Posted at 2300 BST on 29/09/17.
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