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Michael van Gerwen and Nathan Aspinall (Picture: Kais Bodensieck/PDC Europe)

World Grand Prix darts final: Nathan Aspinall v Michael van Gerwen predictions, betting tips, odds, statistics, H2H record & Sky Sports TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Sun October 09, 2022 · 2y ago

Michael van Gerwen and Nathan Aspinall collide in Sunday night's Boylesports World Grand Prix final in Leicester so check out our preview with statistics and tips.

Just when we were bracing ourselves for another major final between two of the 'big three', up pops Nathan Aspinall to rip up everyone else's script and continue his own comeback story.

After upsetting the odds to stun Gerwyn Price at the Morningside Arena last night, he now finds himself as the big underdog to get his hands on this double-start title for the first time in his career as a rampant Michael van Gerwen targets his sixth - and first since 2019.

Here, we look at the tournament and seasonal statistics for both players, their head-to-head record, routes to get here and our final predictions and tips…

Darts betting tips: World Grand Prix final

1pt Michael van Gerwen to hit 8+ 180s at 6/4 (Boylesports)

1pt Michael van Gerwen to win and hit most 180s at 17/10 (Paddy Power)

1pt five or more 100+ checkouts in the match at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt neither Aspinall nor Van Gerwen hit a starting double with their first dart of the match at 11/8 (Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Nathan Aspinall (9/4) v Michael van Gerwen (1/3)

TV Coverage & start time: Sky Sports, 1930 GMT, Sunday October 9
Format: Best of nine sets. All Sets are the best of five legs. All legs must begin and end with a double, meaning that a player must hit a double before he can begin scoring in each leg.

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD

Overall Head-to-Head: 5-9, 1 draw
2022 Head-to-Head: 0-1
All Televised Meetings: 6-2, 1 draw
14-16 - 2022 World Matchplay QF
10-11 - 2021 European Championship SF
9-16 - 2021 World Matchplay QF
8-3 - 2021 Premier League Group
6-6 - 2021 Premier League Group
6-8 - 2020 Premier League Group
8-10 - 2020 UK Open RD4
7-5 - 2020 Premier League Group
3-6 - 2020 World Championship SF

One thing you're pretty much always guaranteed when these two meet is a close battle, regardless of the result. Nathan Aspinall's never-say-die approach to the game has paid off on numerous occasions against Michael van Gerwen, with five victories overall and a highly creditable Premier League draw last year.

Like with virtually all of his opponents, MVG dominates the head-to-head record but he was given a real run for his money at this year's World Matchplay quarter-finals when the plucky Asp made it a lot closer than many expected, while their previous meeting before that was a classic European Championship semi-final that went to a deciding leg.

Aspinall won't throw in the towel if he finds himself in what seems to be perilous position so I would be surprised to see him nick a couple of sets or three.

2022 WORLD GRAND PRIX STATS

Tournament Average
Aspinall: 85.93 (19 sets, 83 legs)
Van Gerwen: 93.42 (15 sets, 60 legs)
Tournament 180s (180s per leg)
Aspinall: 19 (0.22)
Van Gerwen: 13 (0.22)
Checkout %
Aspinall: 45.37% (49/108)
Van Gerwen: 42.42% (42/99)
Double-in %
Aspinall: 38.24% (83/217)
Van Gerwen: 53.64% (59/110)
100+ checkouts (per leg won) & high checkout
Aspinall: 6 (0.12) & 138
Van Gerwen: 10 (0.24) & 167

Only special players can average comfortably over 90 for an entire tournament of double-start darts and Michael van Gerwen looks well on course to do that as he's currently on 93.42 after 15 sets and 60 legs across his four matches this week.

Not only that, but he's consistently producing the kind of standard that could even see him post 100+ in a World Grand Prix final for the second time in his career having last emulated Phil Taylor's historic feat in the 2016 edition, when winning his third of five titles.

He came agonisingly close to posting his fifth World Grand Prix 100+ average ever during an absolute masterclass against Chris Dobey and I feel he would have gone higher than his 91.64 had Peter Wright pushed him a lot harder.

The real key to all this has been his doubling at both ends of the leg - but particularly at the start. His double-in percentage of 54% is far superior to Nathan Aspinall's 38% and if there's a big discrepancy tonight then it could well be one-way traffic.

Van Gerwen is also winning almost a quarter of legs with a 100+ checkout, which, if you think about it, is crazy. To give you some context, over a season players tend to do it roughly between 12% and 14%. MVG is currently doing it at 13.04% for the whole of 2022.

Aspinall may not be averaging close to MVG but his checkout stats are more clinical overall and he's demonstrated that impressive in his last two matches, managing 52% against Martin Lukeman and 56% against a wasteful Gerwyn Price, who was punished for all his mistakes.

The Asp will be looking to pounce on similar opportunities - but will van Gerwen give him enough?

ROUTES TO THE WORLD GRAND PRIX FINAL

Nathan Aspinall

R1: 2-1 v Michael Smith
Average: 80.68
180s: 2
100+ Checkouts: 116
Checkout %: 32% (8/25)
Double In%: 41% (12/29)
R2: 3-2 v Danny Noppert
Average: 85.18
180s: 5
100+ Checkouts: 104, 100
Checkout %: 41.9% (13/31)
Double In%: 39% (23/59)
QF: 3-2 v Martin Lukeman
Average: 90.03
180s: 5
100+ Checkouts: 138, 113
Checkout %: 52% (13/25)
Double In%: 36% (21/57)
QF: 4-2 v Gerwyn Price
Average: 87.13
180s: 7
100+ Checkouts: 113
Checkout %: 56% (15/27)
Double In%: 37% (27/72)

After coming through a really scrappy and low-quality opener against Michael Smith, the Asp had to survive four match darts against Danny Noppert to squeeze through as the underdog once again.

He never gives up at the worst of times - even during a career that has recently been blighted by injury woes - so if anyone could have come back from 2-0 down in sets and then 2-0 down in the deciding set, it was him and his fighting spirit was rewarded once again.

Aspinall found himself favourite for the only time during the tournament against debutant Martin Lukeman and he had to come through another close battle despite averaging 10 points more than his opponent, who didn't hit a single 180.

Few gave him much of a chance against Gerwyn Price and bizarrely it turned out to his 'easiest' win as he punished the top seed for missing 29 of his 41 attempts at doubles with his highly clinical finishing.

Michael van Gerwen

R1: 2-0 v Gary Anderson
Average: 89.43
180s: 3
100+ Checkouts: 106
Checkout %: 25% (6/24)
Double In %: 45% (8/13)
R2: 3-2 v Stephen Bunting
Average: 94.35
180s: 6
100+ Checkouts: 150, 141
Checkout %: 36% (13/36)
Double In %: 40% (20/41)
QF: 3-1 v Chris Dobey
Average: 99.33
180s: 3
100+ Checkouts: 124, 118, 109, 105, 104
Checkout %: 60% (11/19)
Double In %: 64% (18/28)
QF: 4-0 v Peter Wright
Average: 91.64
180s: 1
100+ Checkouts: 167, 124
Checkout %: 63% (12/19)
Double In %: 44% (13/28)

If Michael van Gerwen hadn't suddenly gone AWOL for a few legs against Stephen Bunting, then this route to the final would look like an absolute procession.

Having swotted aside Gary Anderson for the loss of just a couple of legs, MVG looked on course for another routine victory over the Bullet when winning seven legs on the trot to move 1-0 up in the fourth set, and was averaging over 10 points more at that point.

Set play can create drama out of nowhere and so it proved again, but after surviving the scares of a deciding set, he produced an exhibition of high scoring and ruthless doubling - at both ends of legs - to beat Chris Dobey in a highly-entertaining contest.

He was very impressive again when stepping up against his old rival Peter Wright but sadly Snakebite didn't turn up to create a classic and the 4-0 scoreline was maybe more down to his lack of Aspinall-style spirit.

2022 SEASON STATS

2022 Titles: 2-8 (TV: 0-3)
Seasonal Average
Aspinall: 95.08
MVG: 98.08
180s per leg in 2022
Aspinall: 0.26
MVG: 0.27
Checkout % in 2022 (Stage events only)
Aspinall: 43.19%
MVG: 37.46%
100+ checkouts per leg won
Aspinall: 14.14%
MVG: 13.04%
Match Treble % in all comps (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Aspinall: 25.71%
MVG: 28.8%

These stats are obviously less relevant now than they were at the start of the week but if there was one clear statistical sign that Nathan Aspinall was well capable of getting this far and primed to punish opponents for sloppy doubling, it's his checkout stats on the stage. He'll certainly need to back up his fighting spirit with more clinical finishing - and starting - if he's to keep up with MVG tonight.

WORLD GRAND PRIX FINAL PREDICTION AND BEST BETS

Michael van Gerwen is quite clearly playing formidable darts right now and although Nathan Aspinall will no doubt give it his absolute all as usual and never give in, you really have to fancy the Dutchman picking up his sixth World Grand Prix title.

He's already won eight titles this season, including the Premier League and World Matchplay crowns, so all those struggles he endured in the previous couple of years are becoming a more of a distant memory with every passing tournament. He's got that old swagger back and even though we do see wobbles in matches from time to time, he seems to have that composure to click back into top gear a lot quicker than before.

His 180 hitting might not have been as prolific this week has it has been this season overall but he managed six in five sets against Stephen Bunting and I fancy him to find his range over at least six or seven sets tonight. Boylesports make it 11/8 that he hits eight or more while we should cover the 100+ checkout markets considering he's already made 10 of those. You can get odds-against on the pair combining for five or more and that's worth taking.

Aspinall has more maximums than MVG so far but their 180 per leg ratio is identical at 0.22, while van Gerwen has a slightly higher one for the season (0.27 v 0.26). Therefore I feel there's some value in backing the Dutchman to win with the most 180s just in case it's a relatively swift encounter that makes it harder to hit those aforementioned targets.

My final bet is repeating the winning strategy I adopted for both semi-finals last night; Ladbrokes 11/8 on both players to miss their first dart at a starting double. They were the quickest and easier odds-against winners of my life.

Aspinall failed to hit one with his first three attempts against Michael Smith, his first two against Danny Noppert and his openers against Martin Lukeman and Gerwyn Price while MVG only got away with his first dart once this week - against Dobey.

Score Prediction: Aspinall 2-5 Van Gerwen
Click here to back Michael van Gerwen to win and hit most 180s with Sky Bet
Click here to back five or more 100+ checkouts in the match at 6/4 Sky Bet
Click here to check out all of the Nathan Aspinall v Michael van Gerwen markets with Sky Bet

ASPINALL v MVG: CAREER HONOURS

Senior Career PDC titles: 7-148
Televised PDC Titles/Finals: 2/3 - 59/80
Major Titles/Finals: 1/2 - 43/55

What time does Aspinall v MVG start and what TV channel is it on?

Coverage of the final between Nathan Aspinall and Michael van Gerwen starts at 7.30pm on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Arena, with the match expected to begin around 7.45pm.