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Michael van Gerwen (Picture: PDC)

World Grand Prix darts: Day four predictions, odds, betting tips, accas, order of play & TV times

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Thu October 05, 2023 · 1y ago

The second round of the Boylesports World Grand Prix concludes in Leicester on Thursday night so here's our match-by-match preview and best bets.

The likes of of Gary Anderson, Gerwyn Price and Michael Smith are in action tonight but will they all advance?

Here, we look ahead to all four matches with seasonal statistics, predictions, best bets and an acca...

Darts betting tips: World Grand Prix day four

2pts Luke Humphries to win and hit most 180s at 1/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)

2pts over 8.5 180s in Smith v Cullen at 6/5 (Sky Bet)

SL Acca: Humphries, Wright and Smith all to win at 10/3 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World Grand Prix: Thursday October 5

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1800 GMT)
Second Round Format: Best of 5 sets. All sets are the best of five legs. There will be no tie-break in any set. All legs must begin and end with a double, meaning that a player must hit a double before he can begin scoring in each leg.

Luke Humphries (1/4) v Luke Woodhouse (11/4)

Overall H2H: 6-3 (TV: 0-0)
2023: 2-0 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average
Humphries: 98.17
Woodhouse: 92.86
180s per leg in 2022
Humphries: 0.34
Woodhouse: 0.25
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
Humphries: 41.21%
Woodhouse: 40.16%
100+ checkouts per leg won
Humphries: 10.43%
Woodhouse: 12.90%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Humphries: 25.95%
Woodhouse: 23.71%

Most people - including myself - would have been expecting a blockbuster tie between Luke Humphries and Dave Chisnall but Luke Woodhouse spoilt that particular wish by knocking out the in-form Chizzy in straight sets.

He averaged a highly impressive 95.96 compared to Chisnall's 94.62 but he was helped by his opponent's woeful doubling and can't anticipate similar charity from Humphries.

That said, the Newbury ace wasn't at his best against Daryl Gurney but didn't need to be in a sound 2-0 victory and over this longer format, I can't see anything else other than a sound victory for Humphries.

I'm going to throw in most 180s for Humphries as well due to his much higher maximum per leg ratio this season.

Scoreline verdict: 3-1

Peter Wright (4/5) v Ryan Searle (10/11)

Overall H2H: 9-4 (TV: 2-1)
2023: 0-1 (TV: 0-1)
Seasonal Average
Wright: 92.99
Searle: 94.95
180s per leg in 2022
Wright: 0.24
Searle: 0.24
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
Wright: 37.87%
Searle: 34.51%
100+ checkouts per leg won
Wright: 12.45%
Searle: 11.14%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Wright: 10.34%
Searle: 19.05%

It seems a long time ago now since Peter Wright dubbed Ryan Searle as the 'future of darts' after the final of the 2021 Players Championship Finals and while he's still a long way from fulfilling this prophecy, his career is still moving in the right direction.

Searle has picked up his fourth career ranking title this year while he also beat Snakebite en route to the World Matchplay quarter-final which was his best run at a major since the aforementioned Minehead breakthrough.

He battled past Damon Heta in the opening round with an unspectacular performance and the same can be said of Wright, who brushed Gabriel Clemens aside 2-0.

Much has already been made of Snakebite's difficult season and his yearly average hasn't been as low as 93 for goodness knows how many years - but his performances have improved slightly of late and I expect him to edge a tightly fought encounter.

Scoreline verdict: 3-2

Michael van Gerwen (2/7) v Chris Dobey (5/2)

Overall H2H: 15-3 (TV: 6-3)
2023: 4-2 (TV: 4-2)
Seasonal Average
MVG: 98.00
Dobey: 95.93
180s per leg in 2022
MVG: 0.29
Dobey: 0.32
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
MVG: 39.78%
Dobey: 37.87%
100+ checkouts per leg won
MVG: 11.64%
Dobey: 13.67%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
MVG: 22.05%
Dobey: 22.22%

Chris Dobey saved me from the humiliation of having all my outright tips falling at the first hurdle thanks to his victory over Dimitri Van den Bergh on Tuesday night - but some would say it merely delayed the 'inevitable' as he prepares to face a red hot Michael van Gerwen.

The defending champion thrashed Josh Rock for the loss of just one leg while he averaged a highly impressive 95.74 in this format.

But Dobey, who has a wealth of double start experience in the north east, looked pretty sharp himself with an average of 91.13 and he won't be at all fazed by the challenge that awaits despite the overall head-to-head record, which is a bit misleading these days.

MVG won their first 11 meetings from May 2015 to October 2022 but Dobey has beaten him three times since then - all of which on TV - including twice in the Premier League.

He's also a major champion now and obviously I wouldn't be surprised to see him go all the way this week, even though this will undoubtedly be a tall order that'll go the distance.

Scoreline verdict: 2-3

Ross Smith (10/11) v Joe Cullen (4/5)

Overall H2H: 5-2 (TV: 2-0)
2023: 1-0 (TV: 1-0)
Seasonal Average
Smith: 95.46
Cullen: 94.80
180s per leg in 2022
Smith: 0.36
Cullen: 0.33
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
Smith: 38.26%
Cullen: 38.72%
100+ checkouts per leg won
Smith: 8.74%
Cullen: 13.52%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Smith: 26.13%
Cullen: 34.34%

The only thing I can be relatively confident about in this match is that the rate of 180s will be pretty high.

Ross Smith may not be quite as electrifyingly prolific as he was last season but he's still hitting them at 0.36 per leg while Joe Cullen isn't too far behind at 0.33 - so together they should in theory give the crowd plenty to shout about.

Cullen managed three in nine legs over two sets last time out which is very good in this format, with Smith managing two in nine legs (two sets) against Jonny Clayton so if we see at least four sets tonight, you'd like to think we could be pushing for double figures fairly comfortably.

Sky Bet also offer a tempting 3/1 about there being 2+ 180s in every set and would stand more chance if it's a straight sets win for either player - but I'm opting for over 8.5 overall.

Scoreline verdict: 3-1