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Luke Humphries (Picture: Simon O'Connor/PDC)

World Grand Prix 2024 final: Luke Humphries v Mike De Decker darts predictions, betting tips, odds, statistics, H2H record & Sky Sports TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Sun October 13, 2024 · 2M ago

Luke Humphries and Mike De Decker collide in Sunday night's Boylesports World Grand Prix final in Leicester so check out our preview with statistics, routes to the final, head-to-head records and tips.

Darts betting tips: World Grand Prix final

1pt Humphries (-3.5) to win, hit 9+ 180s and 2+ 100+ checkouts at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt 18+ match 180s & 5+ match 100+ checkouts at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Luke Humphries (1/6) v Mike De Decker (7/2)

TV Coverage & start time: Sky Sports, 2000 BST Sunday October 13
Format: Best of 11 sets. All Sets are the best of five legs. All legs must begin and end with a double, meaning that a player must hit a double before he can begin scoring in each leg.
CLICK HERE to bet on De Decker v Van den Bergh with Sky Bet

Routes to the World Grand Prix final

LUKE HUMPHRIES

R1: 2-1 v Stephen Bunting (0-3, 3-2, 3-1)
Average: 89.87
180s: 2
100+ Checkouts (Highest): 1 (118)
Checkout %: 33.33%
R2: 3-1 v Ricardo Pietreczko (3-0, 1-3, 3-1, 3-1)
Average: 92.01
180s: 3
100+ Checkouts (Highest): 2 (130)
Checkout %: 45.5%
QF: 3-1 v Jonny Clayton (3-1, 1-3, 3-2, 3-2)
Average: 86.6
180s: 5
100+ Checkouts (Highest): 1 (146)
Checkout %: 29.4%
SF: 5-0 v Ryan Joyce (3-0, 3-2, 3-1, 3-0, 3-0)
Average: 100.3
180s: 8
100+ Checkouts (Highest): 4 (146)
Checkout %: 60.0% (14/53)

Luke Humphries could so easily have crashed out in the first round when Stephen Bunting earned himself a match dart for a straight sets victory.

However, the Bullet missed his shot at double 16 (much to my annoyance having backed Bunting for the title!) and ever since then Cool Hand has pretty much blitzed his way to a second World Grand Prix final in a row.

Jonny Clayton gave Humphries a few concerns as he struggled to produce his best but his performance against Ryan Joyce would have been too good for anyone on planet darts right now.

In fact you'd have had to bring back peak Phil Taylor and prime Michael van Gerwen from the past to have given him a game as they are the only two players to have ever averaged over 100 in a best of nine set double start match.

Humphries is now in a sixth successive TV ranking final dating back to the 2023 World Grand Prix final - a feat which has also only ever been managed by MVG and Taylor.

MIKE DE DECKER

R1: 2-1 v Damon Heta (3-2, 1-3, 3-2)
Average: 92.01
180s: 3
100+ Checkouts (Highest): 2 (150)
Checkout %: 46.7%
R2: 3-0 v Gary Anderson (3-0, 3-2, 3-2)
Average: 95.74
180s: 4
100+ Checkouts (Highest): 2 (160)
Checkout %: 60.0%
QF: 3-0 v James Wade (3-2, 3-2, 3-2)
Average: 91.64
180s: 2
100+ Checkouts (Highest): 1 (146)
Checkout %: 50.0%
SF: 5-2 v Dimitri Van den Bergh (0-3, 3-2, 3-0, 3-0, 1-3, 3-0, 3-1)
Average: 86.32
180s: 9
100+ Checkouts (Highest): 2 (150)
Checkout %: 38.1%

It's remarkable enough that a 200/1 pre-tournament outsider has reached the final of one of the toughest majors, but to have done so by thrashing three multiple major winners has left everyone stunned.

'Thrashing' might be a bit too strong a word considering five of the six sets he won against Gary Anderson and James Wade were by 3-2 scorelines but in a way that's even more impressive due to the mental strength he displayed despite this being just his second World Grand Prix.

He's not been playing like someone who'd never previously ventured to a major quarter-final so we shouldn't be too dismissive of his chances.

But Luke Humphries in this current mood is a completely different challenge altogether.

2024 World Grand Prix statistics

Tournament Average
Humphries: 92.13 (16 sets, 63 legs)
De Decker: 90.38 (16 sets, 67 legs)
Tournament 180s (180s per leg)
Humphries: 18 (0.29)
De Decker: 18 (0.27)
Checkout %
Humphries: 41.41%
De Decker: 45.56%
Double-in %
Humphries: 43.75%
De Decker: 48.55%
100+ checkouts (per leg won) & high checkout
Humphries: 8 (0.19) & 146
De Decker: 7 (0.17) & 160

If anyone looked at these overall stats between the two finalists but weren't told who the finalists were, they'd probably say tonight's showdown would be almost too close to call!

However, given the wealth of experience that Humphries has of turning on the style in the biggest major finals - no matter who he faces - we can pretty safely expect Cool Hand to deliver some numbers similar to what he saw from him against Ryan Joyce.

However, if Mike De Decker can get close to the levels we've seen from him when it comes to prolific 180 hitting and 100+ checkout finishing, then even if the match score is 6-0, we should see the pair combine for a healthy number of both.

There were 10 maximums in Humphries' clash with Joyce of just 18 legs and the latter is not in De Decker's league for 180 power.

CLICK HERE to back 18+ 180s and 5+ 100 checkouts with Sky Bet

2024 Season Statistics

2024 Titles & Finals
Humphries: 3 & 6 (TV: 1-3)
De Decker: 1 & 1 (TV: 0)
Seasonal Average
Humphries: 99.13
De Decker: 95.27
180s per leg in 2024
Humphries: 0.35
De Decker: 0.36
Checkout % in 2024
Humphries: 41.72%
De Decker: 37.97%

These stats just highlight how strong Mike De Decker is when it comes to 180 hitting so just bare that in mind if you are considering the maximum markets.

I'm expecting around eight sets tonight with an average of four legs in each one. That's quite a conservative estimate of 32 legs and could see them both contributing around 10 maximums apiece when you bare in mind that their double start 180 per leg rates are closer to 0.30 rather than their seasonal rates of around 0.35.

Head-to-head record

Overall Head-to-Head: 9-4 (TV: 1-0)
2024 Head-to-Head: 0-0
All Televised Meetings: 1-0
6-4 - 2022 Players Championship Finals rd 2

The vast majority of their 13 meetings came during their Development Tour days and the last time they last clashed in a televised major was way back at the 2022 Players Championship Finals.

Therefore there's no meaningful battle scars to speak of and this metric feels rather irrelevant.

Humphries v De Decker: Final verdict

Mike De Decker was as big as 200/1 in place to win the World Grand Prix before a dart was thrown in Leicester this week and even if I could go back in time to rewrite my pre-tournament preview, I'd still struggle to make much of a viable case.

Not that he'd been playing badly this season - after all, he did pick up a maiden senior PDC title back in August - but he lacked major stage pedigree and his only appearance in this event ended in a first round exit.

De Decker obviously has talent and potential but given the standard in the world today, you'd generally anticipate a player of his standing would need a few quarter and semi-final runs before he's ready to start challenging for the big prizes.

But now he's here and confidence is high. The Belgian has already brushed aside two legends and another multiple major winner in the previous rounds without any problems so could he possibly do it again as a rank outsider?

No, I just can't see it.

For that to happen, Humphries would need several bad patches during this best-of-11 set match.

Just like Phil Taylor and Michael van Gerwen in their prime, Humphries has turned into a player that continues to improve during long matches and he manages to maintain a supreme level of performance when others get hit by mental fatigue.

That's why he loves the business end of tournaments and I fully expect him to get the job done with yet another ruthless all-round display that leaves pundits and fans starting to compare this era of dominance with Taylor and MVG.

Scoreline prediction: 6-2

CLICK HERE to back Humphries (-3.5) to win, hit 9+ 180s and 2+ 100+ checkouts with Sky Bet

What time does Humphries v De Decker start and what TV channel is it on?

Coverage of the final between Luke Humphries and Mike De Decker starts at 8.00pm on Sky Sports Main Event, with the match expected to begin around 8.15pm.

World Grand Prix: Round-by-round results

World Grand Prix: Draw bracket and round-by-round results

SEMI-FINALS

(1) Luke Humphries 5-0 Ryan Joyce
Mike De Decker 5-2 Dimitri Van den Bergh

QUARTER-FINALS

(1) Luke Humphries 3-1 Jonny Clayton(8)
(4) Rob Cross 2-3 Ryan Joyce
Mike De Decker 3-0 James Wade
Joe Cullen 1-3 Dimitri Van den Bergh

SECOND ROUND

(1) Luke Humphries 3-1 Ricardo Pietreczko
(8) Jonny Clayton 3-1 Ross Smith
(4) Rob Cross 3-1 Martin Schindler
(5) Nathan Aspinall 1-3 Ryan Joyce
Gary Anderson 0-3 Mike De Decker
(7) Gerwyn Price 0-3 James Wade
Daryl Gurney 2-3 Joe Cullen
(6) Dave Chisnall 1-3 Dimitri Van den Bergh

FIRST ROUND

(1) Luke Humphries 2-1 Stephen Bunting
Raymond van Barneveld 1-2 Ricardo Pietreczko
(8) Jonny Clayton 2-0 Ritchie Edhouse
Gian van Veen 0-2 Ross Smith
(4) Rob Cross 2-1 Luke Littler
Brendan Dolan 0-2 Martin Schindler
(5) Nathan Aspinall 2-1 Ryan Searle
Josh Rock 0-2 Ryan Joyce
(2) Michael Smith 1-2 Gary Anderson
Mike De Decker 2-1 Damon Heta
(7) Gerwyn Price 2-1 Danny Noppert
Peter Wright 1-2 James Wade
(3) Michael van Gerwen 0-2 Daryl Gurney
Chris Dobey 1-2 Joe Cullen
(6) Dave Chisnall 2-0 Cameron Menzies
Luke Woodhouse 1-2 Dimitri Van den Bergh

World Grand Prix Prize Money

Winner - £120,000
Runner-up - £60,000
Semi-finalists - £40,000
Quarter-finalists - £25,000
Second round - £15,000
First round - £7,500

World Grand Prix History

The World Grand Prix is one of the PDC tour's major events and used to take place in Dublin every October until it moved across the Irish Sea in 2020. It is the only televised event in which players must start and finish each leg on a double or the bullseye.

Its unique format adds an extra dimension when it comes to betting, with darts punters often preferring to back who they feel is a better 'finisher' rather than those renowned for heavy scoring.

The World Grand Prix was first held in Rochester, Kent in 1998 before switching to County Wexford two years later but in 2001 the event moved to its long-term home at the Citywest Hotel in Dublin.

Phil Taylor is the most successful player in the history of the straight knockout competition with 11 titles to his name but the 'Power' has also suffered four defeats in the first-round, which all came as relief to the bookies.

Michael van Gerwen (2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019 & 2022), Luke Humphries (2023), Jonny Clayton (2021), Gerwyn Price (2020), Daryl Gurney (2017), Alan Warriner (2001), Colin Lloyd (2004), James Wade (2007 & 2010) and Robert Thornton, who upset the odds to beat 'Mighty Mike' in 2015, are the other champions of the World Grand Prix.

World Grand Prix Past Finals