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UK Open: Statistical look at five outsiders who could go far in the FA Cup of Darts
Darts analyst Carl Fletcher is one of the leading statisticians in the game and he's used his expert insight to highlight five players that could make a lengthy run at this year's UK Open in Minehead.
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Carl's pre-tournament analysis is based on his own database of a variety of seasonal stats for all 160 hopefuls competing at the Butlin's Minehead Resort from averages and double data to outshot records, stray darts, bullseye success and more.
Nathan Aspinall won the UK Open last year despite being a 125/1 outsider before a dart was thrown - summing up just why the ‘FA Cup of Darts’ is known for throwing up surprises given the nature of the draw.
You can be sure there’ll be one or two bigger priced participants still in contention come Sunday but who will they be? Here, I'll pick out five who could give you a run for your money at decent odds based on this season's stats.
Krzysztof Ratajski (50/1)
Although it wouldn’t constitute a shock as such, the 50/1 currently available for Krzysztof Ratajski looks a very fair price. ‘The Polish Eagle’ has reached the last 16 in this event in both the last two years and has already got off to a blistering start in the 2020. He was in the winner’s enclosure at Players Championship Four and has backed this up further by reaching the semi-final at Players Championship Six and the Quarter Final of the Belgian Darts Championship this weekend succumbing to Michael Van Gerwen and Peter Wright respectively in these last two tournaments. Across all events this year Ratajski’s seasonal average is an excellent 96.95 which has helped him to win 77% of the matches he’s played. Whilst he may not be one of the biggest 180 hitters on the circuit, he’s consistent in most other areas particularly his finishing. In Hasselt the weekend his doubling was an excellent 53.3%. If he can maintain these current standards at Minehead this weekend we should see him go deep in the tournament.
Gabriel Clemens (80/1)
Next up is 80/1 shot Gabriel Clemens who enters the tournament in the third round and we already know that he faces either Nathan Derry or Maik Kuivenhoven, the latter of whom has made a decent start to 2020. The same can also be said of the ‘German Giant’, however, who has already reached one semi-final and two quarter-finals in the six Players Championship events played so far. He’s very much an improving player having reached the final of the German Darts Masters on the World Series in 2019 and he followed this up later in the year to some extent when he put in some very impressive performances at the Grand Slam of Darts. His current high profile scalps this year already include James Wade, Adrian Lewis and Nathan Aspinall to identify just three and he actually boasts an impressive win rate of 73% across all events in 2020 so far with a seasonal average of 94.86 to boot. One part of his game that is very strong is his combination finishing. Of the 26 matches he played this year, he’s registered the highest checkout in seventeen of these. He made the last 32 in the event last year, having surrendered an 8-5 lead against Simon Whitlock in a race to 10. He’ll be hoping to go further this year and he’s a player those entering the tournament in the fourth round will be keen to avoid when the draw is made.
Danny Noppert (125/1)
Third on my list is the first of two Dutchmen in Danny Noppert. He’s not got the best record in this event having been eliminated in the last 96 in both 2018 and 2019. This time ‘Noppie’ enters the tournament in the fourth round however given his current ranking on the order of merit. The former Zuiderduin Masters winner and BDO World Championship runner-up has gradually increased his ranking over the first two years on the PDC circuit. In 2018 he won a Players Championship floor event and made the semi-finals of the Players Championship Finals later in the year. Then in 2019 he was runner up to MVG in the World Series of Darts Finals after a string of impressive victories over Jeffrey De Zwaan, Gary Anderson, Ian White and Dave Chisnall. I'd say 2020 promises to be another good year also - he's already secured double qualification to the first two Euro events and has made a quarter-final and semi-final on the Pro Tour. He seems to be coming into form at just the right time. He registered his highest average of the year (108.96) as he beat Jermaine Wattimena in the Belgian Darts Championship, in fact he’s registered three ton plus averages in his last eight matches. Similar to the aforementioned two selections he also boasts impressive seasonal statistics with a 75% win rate and a seasonal average of 95.40. ‘The Asp’ won this event last year at 125/1, could ‘Noppie’ repeat the feat this year too?
Dirk van Duijvenbode (125/1)
Before the weekend Dirk Van Duijvenbode was already on my radar as a potential long shot for this event and was still available at 600/1 on Sunday morning, but following his run to the semi-finals of the Belgian Darts Championship his odds have tumbled to around 150/1 in most places. The start of 2020 has been somewhat superb for the ‘Titan’; on top of his Euro Tour performance he’d already made a good start to the Players Championship Tour reaching the last 32, semi-final and last 16 of the opening three events losing to the eventual runner-up on each occasion in Jeff Smith, Gerwyn Price and Michael Van Gerwen. In fact the calibre of opponents to have defeated him this season is seriously impressive. Following on from these he’s since lost to Glen Durrant twice and Gary Anderson in first round defeats in the other three Players Championship events and then Gerwyn Price in the semi-final at Hasselt. His seasonal average is currently 96.12 and at times over the weekend he seemed to pound the treble 20 bed for fun with a very creditable 42.1% accuracy on this particular scoring segment. In 2016, 17 and 18 Van Duijvenbode reached the last 32 of this event and there’s no doubting he’s in superior form to that at present. He enters the tournament in the second round and he hasn’t been handed the simplest of draws. First up he faces Marko Kantele before a potentially exciting clash with the ‘Lucky D’ Darius Labanauskas in the third round. Whilst his doubling was a respectable 39.4% across his five matches in Belgium at times there was room for improvement in this area of his game, if he does prove to be more consistent on the outer ring there’s no doubt 2020 could become even better for the Dutchman.
Devon Petersen (250/1)
The final pick of my five is Devon Petersen. He didn’t get off to a great start in 2020 with four consecutive first-round defeats in the opening Players Championship events but then in his last two tournaments things seemed to have clicked for ‘The African Warrior’ as he reached the semi-finals and last 16 of each event of the weekend of Players Championship Five and Six. There was some impressive victories too, he whitewashed Stephen Bunting, registered victories against Dimitri Van Den Bergh, Rob Cross and Glen Durrant and registered a 111.76 average as he beat Niels Zonneveld. He currently boasts the sixth best average on the Players Championship Tour this year and his overall seasonal average across all matches is a mighty 98.29. It’s not just in this statistical field that he excels either. He has hit 56 180’s in 156 legs of darts, which equates to a mammoth 0.36 per leg and 19% of the legs that he’s won have been with a 100+ out shot. When he puts all these attributes together he’s a formidable player that can take some stopping. A quarter finalist in this event back in 2015 together with his performances in the 2019 World Championships and the 2019 World Cup of Darts suggest that this showman can adjust easily whether he’s on the big stage or playing on the floor. It’s arguable that Devon has just run into the wrong opponent at the wrong time as some of them have produced some of their best performances of the year with four of his seven defeats coming with opponents averaging 103.84, 103.94, 106.70 and 104.91, in fact overall his opponents in 2020 have so far averaged 96.22 for the year. If he continues to perform to his current level a good showing can be expected, especially at tasty odds of 250/1.