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Luke Littler

Today's PDC World Darts Championship predictions: Betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time for Thursday January 2

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Thu January 02, 2025 · 2d ago

The 2025 Paddy Power World Darts Championship semi-finals take place on Thursday so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and an acca.

World Championship: Day 15 preview

SL Acca: 1pt Dobey (-2.5) and Littler (-6.5) both to hit most 180s at 11/4 with Paddy Power

Scroll down for match-by-match tips, stats and scoreline predictions

Evening Session (1900 GMT)

TV Coverage: Sky Sports
Format: Semi-finals, best of 11 sets

Chris Dobey (2/1) v Michael van Gerwen (4/11)

Three-dart average (2024): 97.41 - 97.19
Tournament average: 94.72 - 100.04
180s per leg (2024): 0.34 - 0.28
Tournament 180s per leg: 0.35 - 0.38
Checkout % (2024): 38.46% - 41.01%
Tournament Checkout %: 33.71% - 44.26%
Head-to-head (All time): 6-18
Head-to-head (2024): 2-1

Luke Littler may have been dubbed the 'Prince of the Palace' but Michael van Gerwen declared "the King will be back" to reign at the Ally Pally following his enthralling quarter-final victory Callan Rydz.

MVG has been desperately seeking his fourth world title since 2019 but his chances didn't look particularly strong ahead of the tournament due to a disappointing season by his high standards and the fact he was in Gary Anderson's quarter of the draw.

The Flying Scotsman's early demise was undoubtedly a boost and while van Gerwen didn't find top gear during his wins over James Hurrell and Brendan Dolan in the early rounds, he certainly came to the party against Jeffrey de Graaf and Callan Rydz.

Sure, there was a wobble against de Graaf when he lost six out of seven legs to spurn a 2-0 set lead, but he responded immediately with six unanswered legs to complete a 4-2 victory with an average of 101.98 and power into the last eight where he'd meet the player of the tournament.

Rydz lived up to that billing with another sparkling display as he averaged well over 100 throughout the contest and unleashed a barrage of 17 180s to keep piling scoreboard pressure on MVG.

Van Gerwen stood up to the crowd favourite, who had a raucous Ally Pally roaring him up, with 14 maximums of his own and never found himself behind during an enthralling 5-3 triumph.

He averaged 103.1 and pinned over 43% of his doubles in a complete performance that would cause anyone remaining in this tournament plenty of problems.

Chris Dobey also came through another heart-stopping encounter with Gerwyn Price, who was back to his pantomime villain ways that the majority of darts fans have missed in recent times.

You won't see many players turning to the crowd with a wry smile on their face after watching their crestfallen opponent miss his fifth match dart and if that wasn't enough, he then celebrated winning the set with his best Strictly Come Dancing audition.

Gerwyn Price's smile when Chris Dobey misses double one for the match! Then the dance when he takes the set!

Box Office darts.pic.twitter.com/sseXnng9PV
— Chris Hammer (@ChrisHammer180) January 1, 2025

Dobey would have felt distraught heading into that three-minute interval and he later admitted memories of last year's quarter-final implosion against Rob Cross came flooding back.

It's therefore testament to his character and ability to hold his nerves together that he came back out to complete a 5-3 victory and reach his first ever World Championship semi-final.

In a strange kind of way, this is why what happened 12 months ago could prove to be a blessing in disguise. Having gone through similar turmoil on New Year's Day only to come through it on the other side as the winner, means he now has experience of knowing he can complete the job in the most tense of atmospheres.

I did back Dobey at 40/1 each-way before the tournament began so obviously I'm rooting for him to achieve a career high of reaching his first World Championship final, but he's understandably quite a big underdog to do it.

If the van Gerwen from the quarter-final shows up, I think the three-time world champion ends up in the final once again.

Nevertheless I can still see at least 10 sets in this one and if that's the case we're going to see plenty of 180s.

Hollywood has generally been more prolific on the maximum front than MVG this season although the Dutchman has fired in 35 in 91 legs (0.38) during this World Championship campaign compared to Dobey's 38 in 102 legs (0.37 per leg).

However, that is comfortably above MVG's usual levels whereas Dobey is on his par. He knows his scoring power must be 100% to give himself as many opportunities as possible tonight and win or lose, I expect his 180s count to be higher.

Scoreline prediction: 4-6

SELECTION: 1pt MVG to win and Dobey to hit most 180s at 5/4 (Sky Bet)

Stephen Bunting (7/2) v Luke Littler (1/6)

Three-dart average (2024): 96.81 - 99.28
Tournament average: 96.26 - 101.08
180s per leg (2024): 0.32 - 0.40
Tournament 180s per leg: 0.21 - 0.53
Checkout % (2024): 41.25% - 41.40%
Tournament Checkout%: 40.94% - 40.14%
Head-to-head (All time): 1-1

Luke Littler's World Championship stats on the Ally Pally stage since his debut are quite extraordinary.

Played 11, won 10, eight 100+ averages and 114 180s!

To put that into context, only seven players in history have more 100+ averages in PDC World Championship history and look how many campaigns they had. Also, in the list below, just think of all the great players who aren't on it!

It is incredible that Luke Littler now has eight 100+ averages at the Ally Pally and he hasn't even finished his second World Championship campaign. 🤯

Only seven different players have managed more but look how many times they've been there! pic.twitter.com/uXDxIyhXbT
— Chris Hammer (@ChrisHammer180) January 1, 2025

As for the maximum count, Littler has got 51 maximums already in this edition and still has potentially two long format matches to go. So if he beats Stephen Bunting then you'd expect Michael Smith's tournament record of 83 (2022) will probably be smashed by tomorrow night.

But will he get there?

In yesterday's preview I did suggest a small stake on the Bullet lifting the trophy at 10/1 as it seemed like pretty good value given how Littler hadn't been as convincing as we've seen him throughout the vast majority of 2024.

I'm giving away a Luke Littler set of darts with three extra flights that I got signed by Littler, Luke Humphries and MVG.

Just Like/RT this tweet and follow me to enter the draw & I'll pick a winner on Jan 5th.

PS you can find my darts content on https://t.co/GUdNUeEvCx 👍 pic.twitter.com/zo8C6pyfAn
— Chris Hammer (@ChrisHammer180) December 21, 2024

The 17-year-old had taken to every challenge like a duck to water last year despite the intense media spotlight and pressures placed on him at such a young age.

But despite averaging 100+ in two of his first three wins, throwing a bucket load of 180s, averaging 141 in one set, missing double 12 for a nine-darter and dropping just five sets, he didn't seem his usual relaxed self.

I've read that sentence again and it's ridiculous. How can anyone do those things and it not be as good as what we expected?!

However, against his close friend Nathan Aspinall he looked much more free flowing and dominantly won the match 5-2 with an average of 101.54 and 15 maximums.

That's probably exactly what he needed to settle him down for the business end of the tournament and there will probably be more fireworks to come.

Anyone who has regularly read the previews when Littler plays will know I've been committing towards a nine-dart finish every match. I also had three or more perfect legs from anyone before the tournament began so I'm still hopeful we get that third between now and when the Sid Waddell Trophy is lifted on Friday night.

Agonisingly, Littler missed double 12 against Ryan Meikle when it was 22/1 and those odds have got progressively shorter as the format has got longer, and understandably so.

A perfect leg from either player in this match is now 'only' 15/2 while Littler is 9/1 to do it by himself.

If you're a believer in the Sporting Gods or destiny, then surely it's written in the stars for him to get the record for five nine-darters in one season on the biggest stage of all. Especially after this long running battle with double 12 since his most recent perfect leg in the Premier League final.

He kicks off so many legs with 180s and he even managed back-to-back maximums against Nathan Aspinall during the quarter-finals, so you always feel there's a chance.

Luke Littler and Nathan Aspinall both on nine-darters in a World Championship quarter-final and the Asp is just laughing 🤣pic.twitter.com/QiwHS8N6yy
— Chris Hammer (@ChrisHammer180) January 1, 2025

As for Bunting, he was pretty commanding against Peter Wright as he also ran out a 5-2 winner but it's fair to say Snakebite wasn't the 'rolling back the years' version that we saw in his unforgettable victory over defending champion Luke Humphries.

The Bullet's average of 95.55 was plenty good enough with Wright only managing 92.41 but he'll need to raise his game to the much higher levels we know he has in his locker.

After all, Bunting was Mr Consistent in 2024 and boasted one of the best seasonal averages on the circuit with 96.81 as well as winning a Masters title and reaching six Pro Tour finals.

He's been here before, albeit in Covid year with no fans, but on that occasion back in 2021 he gave eventual champion Gerwyn Price a run for his money before losing 6-4.

With his army of support behind him, I think he'll give as good as he's got and give Littler plenty to think about.

Scoreline prediction: 4-6

SELECTION: 0.5pts nine-dart finish in Bunting v Littler at 15/2 (Betfair)