Premier League Darts selection controversy will spark revamp for 2024, says Paul Nicholson

World champion Michael Smith kicked off the campaign by winning the Bahrain Darts Masters, Peter Wright triumphed in Copenhagen before Chris Dobey upset the odds to claim the Masters title and earn himself a spot in the Premier League...at the expense of many players above him in the rankings.

The Asset has his say on all the big talking points of the past few weeks in his latest Sporting Life Darts column...

Premier League changes imminent?

It’s almost become an unwritten rule that the Masters winner earns a spot in the Premier League after Chris Dobey followed in the footsteps of Jonny Clayton and Joe Cullen.

However, I’m not sure we’ll see this kind of scenario again. Not because it’s a bad idea but because the Premier League format could well change once again in 2024 after just two years of its current form.

There was understandably a lot of backlash about the exclusion of players such as Luke Humphries, Danny Noppert, Ross Smith and Joe Cullen so I feel a shake-up is inevitable.

This could be going back to 10 players, extending it further to 12 or having a complete revamp altogether.

The Masters selection has served a purpose but it’s not a long-term solution. If someone wins it from world number 22 next year, they shouldn’t be thinking they’ll be picked and in fairness to Chris Dobey – he didn’t expect to be called up either considering he was down at 21.

There will be a lot of PDC board meetings this year that will touch on the 2024 Premier League, with ideas for a new format that prevent this kind of selection controversy in the future being paramount in their thinking.

Dobey the wrecking ball

Dobey was pretty much a one-man wrecking ball by knocking out most of the players who just missed out on the Premier League during his run to the Masters title that earned him his own spot.

First he took out Joe Cullen and then in the second round he came from 8-7 down with a career-changing 160 checkout against Luke Humphries, who would surely have been picked had Dobey not gone on to lift the trophy.

Then he beat Dirk van Duijvenbode who had been mildly tipped given how well he’d played in 2022 and then took out Michael Smith just when everyone he’d beaten was hoping the world champion would do them a favour!

I don’t think Rob Cross would have been picked had he won the Masters due to how much he’d said he didn’t want to be in the Premier League – so by the time the final came, it was effectively now Dobey or Humphries.

Consistency is key

Dobey’s key to winning the Masters and the opening night of the Premier League is all about consistency.

Over his eight matches his lowest average was 94.05 and his highest was 96.94 which means the range was less than three points. This is a topic that will be spoken about more as the season goes on, especially if he continues to be successful. Myself and Matthew Edgar at the Modus Super Series touched on it many times, and the more it comes up, the more it becomes a thing.

The range between your top average to your low average over the course of a significant period of time stipulates just how dangerous you are. If you have a 110 in your locker but couple it with a low 80s, you won’t be as successful as a player like Dobey.

He’s always mid 90s at the moment and that’s why he’s Mr Dangerous. Some fans will assume players need to be averaging over 100 regularly to win titles and will be surprised Dobey has enjoyed such an incredible week without doing it once.

His range over the Premier League was 95.82 to 96.94 and Peter Wright managed 103 against him! Michael van Gerwen averaged over 100 twice, including 106 in the semi-finals, but dipped to 97 in the final and Dobey took advantage.

It’s all about doing the right things at the right times as MVG would say. Averages lie most of the time! (Click here for Paul Nicholson's full column on averages)

Anyone who says Dobey will drop off solely because he’s not regularly firing in 100+ averages is talking absolute twaddle. We always said the James Wade formula is a very dangerous one but it seems as though Dobey is taking that up a notch by two or three points.

Since the start of 2022 over 138 games, Dobey’s average is 95 so he’s been at this level for a year. He’s now learning to do more in the important moments – like the 160 against Luke Humphries and the 170 and 160 against Michael van Gerwen.

Humphries right to be aggrieved

Luke Humphries, Joe Cullen and Ross Smith took to social media to vent their frustrations but Danny Noppert stayed quiet despite having really strong claims.

I don’t care what anyone says – it was Luke who really missed out and has a genuine axe to grind. Nobody has ever been ranked five in the world and not been picked.

It was ironic he was voted Pro Tour Player of the Year the day after he was omitted from the Premier League!

Ultimately, the PDC are a promotional company, it’s their choice and we have to live by what they do.

Luke now has the opportunity to stick two fingers up at their decision by winning more titles and that will be his motivation.

It’ll be interesting to see how all these players respond because it can go two ways. When Jose de Sousa missed out a year after making the Premier League final in 2021, he had a mediocre opening six months of the season. It took him until the World Matchplay to remind himself of what he could do.

You can’t allow yourself to get too angry or bitter about it, but you can still use the disappointment as a motivational tool and prove people wrong by your results and performances.

Smith handling responsibility

I don’t think Michael Smith could have handled the responsibility and the media frenzy that comes with being world champion any better.

For a start, he’s been able to maintain the ‘rush’ – a poker term for a player winning a big pot and then winning another straight after – that all started when landing his maiden major at the Grand Slam of Darts and continued into the Bahrain Darts Masters.

Smith has been able to take it all in his stride because his arrival as world champion and world number one has been years in the making. It’s almost like he’d been gradually dipping his toes in the water by winning regular titles down the years, whilst his numerous major final appearances gave him a real thirst to reach the very top.

He’s been building up to this for so long and he’s thriving on making the most of it.

However, I do believe there will have to be some crafty management of his calendar this year otherwise a burnout is inevitable. He’s not had a break since winning the world title and with the Premier League now under way, players championships and European Tour also soon to begin, things are going to get very hectic.

If he goes everywhere and competes in everything, by the World Matchplay, he’ll be toast!

In the words of Chris Mason – don’t go chasing the pound. He’s just won £500,000 – well, around £260,000 after tax and other deductions – so it’s not as if he’s desperate for money. He doesn’t need to chase £12,000 tournaments more than he needs to anymore.

His management and family need to help him perform to his maximum and not enter the red exhaustion zone by playing too much.

No panic stations for MVG

Until the World Championship final, it looked like Michael van Gerwen was back to his best, regularly winning titles and averaging over 100 on numerous occasions.

The defeat to Smith would undoubtedly have knocked some stuffing out of him but there’s no cause to press any panic buttons just because he didn’t win his first two tournaments of the season or the opening night of the Premier League.

His starting position in 2023 is a lot further forward than it was 12 months ago. He took a break with his family recently, and predominantly doesn’t get his scheduling wrong, so watch out for him to start ranking action well this season.

He’s not been back in action that long so as the weeks progress I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pick up several titles and Premier League night wins come mid-April.

There’s nothing wrong with Michael at the moment – his rush will arrive imminently.

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