The Premier League Darts season continues on Tuesday night and here's Carl Fletcher's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.
The table saw some vast changes last night following a night with no draws. Just three points currently separate the league leader, Dimitri Van Den Bergh on eight points and James Wade in ninth on five points.
There’s no doubt that this evenings fixtures are going to be pivotal as Judgement Night looms closer. It’s all to play for with only reigning champion, Glen Durrant cut adrift at this stage.
Premier League Night Seven: April 20
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 BST)
- Format: Maximum of 12 legs
- Suggested Acca: Jose De Sousa to win (-3.5 legs), Van Den Bergh to win & Anderson to win (+2.5 legs) at 4.73/1 (Sky Bet)
- Suggested Bet: Dimitri Van Den Bergh to produce the highest checkout on the night at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
Glen Durrant (7/1) v Jose De Sousa (1/4), Draw (6/1)
- Head to Head: 0-1 (TV: 0-0)
- Meetings since start of 2020: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
- Last Meeting: 6-8 (Players Championship, October 2019)
- Career PDC Titles: 4-3 (TV: 1-1)
- PDC Titles this season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
- Premier League Average this season: 87.02 – 100.22
- Premier League 180’s this season: 3 – 31
- Premier League 100+ checkouts: 1 – 3 (Highest 108 – 141)
- Premier League checkout percentage: 25.93% - 40.96%
- Premier League Position: 10th – 6th (0 – 6)
- Premier League leg difference: -28 / 0
It’s looking increasingly likely that the defending Premier League champion is going to be eliminated on Judgement Night with zero points to his name. He’s on a run of eleven consecutive Premier League matches where he’s averaged lower than his opponent. His confidence is at an extreme low with nine consecutive defeats in all competitions and eight where he’s averaged below 90.
He opens up the night against ‘The Special One’ who is starting to hit top form with eleven ton plus averages in his last fourteen matches and back to back Premier League wins rising him from ninth to sixth in the standings. This match represents a real opportunity for him to move into the Top Four and joint top on points after this first match of night seven, even if it is for just a short space of time.
All the tournament stats favour the Portuguese ace with particular gulfs in the averages, doubling and 180 counts of the pair. It is very difficult to make a case for ‘Duzza’ to get anything from this game although during his match versus MVG last night at he did look like running his opponent close midway through, albeit against a sub-par Van Gerwen.
You don’t envisage De Sousa will be quite as presenting tonight given his current form. Whilst I think Durrant will do enough to pinch a leg here or there with possibly a combination outshot I expect this to be a facile win for Jose and the handicap market is the way to go to try and seek some value from a betting perspective.
- Predicted Scoreline: 2-7
- Suggested Bet: De Sousa to win -3.5 legs at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Rob Cross (5/2) v Dimitri Van Den Bergh (4/5), Draw (15/4)
- Head to Head: 7-1 (TV: 3-0)
- Meetings since start of 2020: 2-0 (TV: 1-0)
- Last Meeting: 6-5 (Players Championship, November 2020)
- Career PDC Titles: 9-1 (TV: 4-1)
- PDC Titles this season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
- Premier League Average this season: 96.94 – 100.16
- Premier League 180’s this season: 19 – 28
- Premier League 100+ checkouts: 2 – 6 (Highest 118 – 164)
- Premier League checkout percentage: 44.00% - 37.50%
- Premier League Position: 8th – 1st (5 - 8)
- Premier League leg difference: 0 / +9
Rob Cross once again looked decent enough last night against Gary Anderson but a ton plus average wasn’t enough for him to escape with a point as he succumbed 7-5 to his opponent. Unfortunately three defeats in four matches has now left ‘Voltage’ embroiled in a battle to escape elimination come Judgement Night and a match here against table topping Dimitri Van Den Bergh could add to his woes further.
Having said that Cross, who’s hit a 180 in every match he’s played so far in 2021 across all competitions, has a fantastic head record against his young Belgian opponent. There two meetings towards the back end of 2020 saw Cross win two last leg deciders, 4-3 in a World Cup of Darts encounter then 6-5 in a Players Championship event in November.
We all know that Dimi’s game currently isn’t as strong on the floor but even in that World Cup of Darts match he didn’t seem to sparkle like he usually does on stage. He seems a different player now having seemingly fully recovered from his knee operation earlier this year.
He comes into this match on the back of a huge victory 7-3 over the player of 2021, Jonny Clayton producing a third ton plus average in the six matches in this years Premier League. He looks composed and is a real contender for the title.
Van Den Bergh has produced six ton plus checkouts too so far and he’s had the highest checkout of the night on three of the six evenings played thus far. Cross has the higher doubles percentage of the two throughout the tournament and given the head to head record I expect him to run the league leader close but unfortunately not pick up any points.
- Predicted Scoreline: 5-7
- Suggested Bet: Match to have over 10.5 legs, highest checkout over 103.5 and over 5.5 180’s at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Nathan Aspinall (7/4) v Jonny Clayton (11/10), Draw (7/2)
- Head to Head: 2-2 (TV: 1-0)
- Meetings since start of 2020: 1-0 (TV: 1-0)
- Last Meeting: 10-8 (Masters, February 2020)
- Career PDC Titles: 5-7 (TV: 2-2)
- PDC Titles this season: 0-3 (TV: 0-1)
- Premier League Average this season: 99.63 – 101.11
- Premier League 180’s this season: 21 – 27
- Premier League 100+ checkouts: 4 – 3 (Highest 144 – 141)
- Premier League checkout percentage: 47.50% - 35.11%
- Premier League Position: 2nd – 4th (8 - 7)
- Premier League leg difference: +9 / +3
‘The Asp’ produced the performance of night six with a 105.20 average as he beat Peter Wright 7-3 and rise to second in the table and level on points at the top. Clayton on the other hand lost a thrilling encounter against Van Den Bergh by the same score line as both men averaged 102 in a match in which they seemed to pepper the Treble Twenty bed. He may have dropped down to fourth in the table as a result but he lost nothing in defeat.
What will be of concern to ‘The Ferret’ is his doubling in the last three matches having hit just thirteen of his fifty four attempts at them. A factor that has seen him lose two of his last three games. Double Sixteen in particular hasn’t been kind to him as he’s hit just four of sixteen attempts (25%) at it during the Premier League.
In contrast Aspinall has been superb on the finishing front, boasting a 47.5% efficiency on his doubles. In the opening five matches he had a better doubles percentage than his opponent then last night he equalled Cross’s 50% percentage as he hit seven of his fourteen attempts.
He also has the scoring power too. Last night his first nine average as he outscored ‘Snakebite’ was a mammoth 119.17. His tournament figure in this respect is 108.18. Clayton's is 110.47.
These are closely matched and although Clayton is having an amazing 2021, Aspinall is now seemingly hitting top gear and admitted he’s enjoying life at present. ‘The Asp’ loves a battle and relishes being the underdog as he is here. I can see this being the match of the night and one that will come down to finishing. Due to that I’m going for this match to as a tie where Aspinall grinds out a point.
- Predicted Scoreline: 6-6
- Suggested Bet: Match over 10.5 legs, highest checkout 104.5 and over 5.5 180’s at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Peter Wright (10/11) v James Wade (9/4), Draw (7/2)
- Head to Head: 19-1-20 (TV: 9-10)
- Meetings since start of 2020: 1-0 (TV: 1-0)
- Last Meeting: 11-4 (European Championship, November 2020)
- Career PDC Titles: 35-38 (TV: 8-11)
- PDC Titles this season: 1-1 (TV: 0-1)
- Premier League Average this season: 97.95 – 95.06
- Premier League 180’s this season: 14 – 11
- Premier League 100+ checkouts: 5 – 6 (Highest 140 – 152)
- Premier League checkout percentage: 50.82% - 47.76%
- Premier League Position: 7th – 9th (6 - 5)
- Premier League leg difference: -4 / -1
A real six pointer between two players languishing at the wrong of the table, in seventh and ninth respectively with just one point separating them. This is probably not a game James Wade can afford to lose as Judgement Night gets ever closer.
As action resumed last night following a weeks break in the Premier League schedule, ‘Snakebite’ was on the wrong end of a sublime performance from Nathan Aspinall who outscored the Scot in the final match of night six. It was not a bad performance from Wright just one of those games where the better player won. It was however a significant result which had a big impact on standings.
Wade had won back to back Premier League matches heading into his fixture versus Jose De Sousa last night and was a shade unlucky to lose as he produced the second highest average of the night (104.01). He seemed to have a slight leg/foot injury in that match but performance wise it didn’t seem to affect him too much.
His final two fixtures after this match are against arguably two of the most in form players in the event in Van Den Bergh & Clayton so he’ll know the importance of making sure he avoids defeat, especially when you factor in the fact that Wright will be expected to pick up maximum points tomorrow evening against an out of sorts Glen Durrant.
There’s hardly anything to choose between the players in the head to head record, in fact it’s astonishing how close the pair are matched. Both players have won a title this season, although Wade’s UK Open success is the much more illustrious of the two.
I’m going to sit on the fence again here given what I’ve already stated in this match preview especially when you factor in the fact that Wrights 180 scoring seems to have eluded him in this event so far. One thing however is the fact they’ve amassed eleven ton plus outshots between them over the six nights so far and their doubles are the best in the tournament so far. I expect a decent show of finishing in this match.
- Predicted Scoreline: 6-6
- Suggested Bet: 2 or more 100+ outshots in the match at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Michael Van Gerwen (8/11) v Gary Anderson (13/5), Draw (15/4)
- Head to Head: 44-2-19 (TV: 25-2-13)
- Meetings since start of 2020: 4-1 (TV: 2-1)
- Last Meeting: 10-2 (Grand Slam of Darts, November 2020)
- Career PDC Titles: 138-46 (TV: 55-15)
- PDC Titles this season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
- Premier League Average this season: 96.13 – 97.42
- Premier League 180’s this season: 10 – 26
- Premier League 100+ checkouts: 6 – 4 (Highest 148 – 156)
- Premier League checkout percentage : 37.50% - 39.77%
- Premier League Position: 3rd – 5th (8 - 7)
- Premier League leg difference: +9 / +3
Always a highly anticipated match when these two face each other but probably not quite the expectation in the fixture this time around as it’s difficult to predict at the moment which Michael Van Gerwen is going to show up.
We’ve seen both ends of the spectrum with MVG in this year’s Premier League so far. He averaged just 87.63 last night as he beat ‘Duzza’ 7-3 and returned to winning ways after two matches without victory. Prior to that he produced a magnificent performance as he averaged 107.58 on the way to a 7-3 win over Rob Cross.
His victories coincidentally in this event this year have come against the current 7th, 8th and 10th placed players in the league and this erratic form level at the odds has me leaning towards Anderson for the victory.
‘The Flying Scotsman’ also returned to winning ways last night but he too has not set the world alight. His form figures in the event read: Draw, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win. A mixed bag but the same can said about most players this year, it really is wide open.
It’s the Scot who heads into the match with the slightly better tournaments stats. He has the higher average, higher 180 count, better doubles percentage and the higher finish of the two in the tournament.
If Anderson is to come out on top in the game, he will need to score consistently throughout. His 180 hitting is superior to that of Van Gerwen and it’s worth adding that into the mix from betting perspective albeit probably not a match to invest stakes to heavily in.
- Predicted Scoreline: 5-7
- Suggested Bet: Anderson to win and hit the most 180’s at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
2021 Premier League Darts Table
- Dimitri Van den Bergh P 6 W 3 D 2 L 1 LegD +9 Pts 8
- Nathan Aspinall P 6 W 3 D 2 L 1 LegD +9 Pts 8
- Michael van Gerwen P 6 W 3 D 2 L 1 LegD +9 Pts 8
- Jonny Clayton P 6 W 3 D 1 L 2 LegD +3 Pts 7
- Gary Anderson P 6 W 3 D 1 L 2 LegD +3 Pts 7
- Jose de Sousa P 6 W 2 D 2 L 2 LegD 0 Pts 6
- Peter Wright P 6 W 2 D 2 L 2 LegD -4 Pts 6
- Rob Cross P 6 W 2 D 1 L 3 LegD 0 Pts 5
- James Wade P 6 W 2 D 1 L 3 LegD -1 Pts 5
- Glen Durrant P 6 W 0 D 0 L 6 LegD -28 Pts 0
- The top four after 16 games qualify for the end of season play-offs, where the title will be decided
- Players earn two points for a win, and one for a draw.
- When players are tied on points, leg difference is used first as a tie-breaker, after that legs won against throw and then tournament average.
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