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Nathan Aspinall (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)
Nathan Aspinall (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)

Premier League Darts: Finals Night predictions, betting tips, acca, statistics, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer
Darts
Fri May 28, 2021 · 3y ago

The Unibet Premier League Darts season reaches its climax with the Play-Offs on Friday night and we preview both semi-finals with stats and best bets.

A five-time champion, last year's runner-up and two debutants will battle it out for the prestigious Premier League Darts trophy - and a cheque for £250,000 - in front a a sell-out crowd at the Marshall Arena on Friday night.

Michael van Gerwen is the 5/4 favourite after topping the regular season for the eighth time in the last nine years but he's closely followed in the betting by Jose de Sousa (11/4), Nathan Aspinall (7/2) and his semi-final opponent Jonny Clayton (9/2).

Aspinall was my pre-tournament 22/1 tip on these pages so anyone who followed that advice will no doubt be cheering him on, but I'll try not to let my heart affect my head in this preview of both last-four encounters...

Premier League Darts Finals Night: May 28

Michael van Gerwen (8/15) v Jonny Clayton (6/4)

  • Head to Head: 12-7 (TV: 6-4)
  • Meetings since start of 2020: 2-4 (TV: 2-3)
  • Premier League 2021 Meetings
    8-5 (Night 11, May 6)
    3-7 (Night 9, April 22)
  • Career PDC Titles: 138-7 (TV: 55-2)
  • PDC Titles this season: 0-3 (TV: 0-1)
  • Premier League Average this season: 98.49 – 99.21
  • Premier League 180’s this season: 39-59
  • Premier League 100+ checkouts: 23-14 (High Finish: 148 – 150)
  • Premier League checkout percentage: 41.53% (103/248) - 38.46% (95/247)
  • Premier League Position: 1st - 4th (23-18)
  • Premier League leg difference: +24 / +7

Michael van Gerwen finds himself back in the familiar position of being favourite for Premier League glory on Finals Night with a cheque of £25,000 already in his back pocket having topped the regular season table for an eighth time in his nine seasons.

Last season, of course, the five-time champion had a shocker and missed out on the play-offs entirely and although he's still not as consistently dominant and intimidating as years gone by, he still managed to reach 23 points - matching his tallies of 2015, 2018 and 2019 and only three short of his personal best of 26.

If you look at the full seasonal competition stats lower down in this article, you'll notice MVG's average of 98.49 is fifth overall while he's hit the fewest 180s out of the eight who progressed past Judgement Night. His scores of His checkout percentage of 41.53% is also mediocre by comparison to the rest. However his incredible tally of 23 100+ checkouts was eight more than anyone else and still has that knack of producing bursts which take matches away from opponents.

There have been times when he's produced meteoric averages of 107.58, 104.72, 110 and 107.44 - with the latter two of those claiming victories over Dimitri Van den Bergh, who averaged 106.78, and James Wade, who managed 110! He can effortlessly still rise to those levels when pushed but ultimately there have been enough signs of vulnerability to give Jonny Clayton plenty of hope.

The Ferret may have lost their previous meeting 8-5 earlier this month when neither player performed to their best with mid 90s averages but his 7-3 victory in the first half of the season was his third in a row this year.

Clayton, who also beat him 10-9 in a pulsating clash en route to Masters glory back in January before thrashing him 6-1 in a Players Championship event a month later, averaged 100 compared to MVG's 91 on that occasion but may need a performance closer to what he managed last night.

The Welshman averaged almost 104 without a 180 during an 8-6 triumph over Van den Bergh that clinched his play-off spot but he did hit 19 scores of 100+ and 17 140s - not to mention 57% of his doubles.

They've hit 37 ton+ checkouts between them this season - with Clayton managing two last night to take his own tally to 14 - so if we can get at least 16 legs in this one then expect to see plenty more.

You can get 5/4 on there being three in the match but I think it's worth being a little bolder and taking the 10/1 on there being at least five.

In terms of a winner, Clayton's display banished the finishing line wobbles of the previous two nights and I really fancy his chances to get another one over on van Gerwen, who has never lost a Premier League semi-final, and put himself in with a chance of winning another £250,000 of unranked money to add to his £50,000 Masters bounty. Not bad for a player ranked 17th in the world!

  • Score Prediction: 7-10
  • Suggested Bet: Three or more 100+ checkouts in the match at 5/4 ( Sky Bet) & five or more 100+ checkouts in the match at 10/1 (Sky Bet).

Jose de Sousa (8/13) v Nathan Aspinall (5/4)

  • Head to Head: 2-1, 1 draw (TV: 1-0, 1 draw)
  • Meetings since start of 2020: 1-1, 1 draw (TV: 1-1, 1 draw)
  • Premier League 2021 Meetings
    8-3 (16, May 27)
    6-6 (Night 4, April 8)
  • Career PDC Titles: 4-5 (TV: 1-2)
  • PDC Titles this season: 1-0 (TV: 0-0)
  • Premier League Average this season: 99.78 – 97.30
  • Premier League 180’s this season: 81-59
  • Premier League 100+ checkouts: 6-14 (High Finish: 149 - 161)
  • Premier League checkout percentage: 42.80% (104/243) - 43.10% (103/239)
  • Premier League Position: 2nd-3rd (20-19)
  • Premier League leg difference: +20 / +15

The success of debutants in the past two Premier League seasons further emphasises the ever widening pool of world-class talent there is in darts regardless of age.

Last October Glen Durrant became the third different player to top the standings before lifting the trophy thanks to a battling victory over fellow debutant Nathan Aspinall in the final - a month before his 50th birthday - and this year Jose de Sousa has taken the competition by storm at the age of 47.

The Darts fraternity had long known about the Special One's talents for well over a year before he burst onto the televised scene for the masses to see at last year's Grand Slam of Darts, but his star has continued to rise to new levels over the past few months.

Finishing second on debut is impressive enough but he also broke the record for most 180s in a single season with an astonishing tally of 81 as he eclipsed the mark of 79 that Gary Anderson set in his maiden campaign in 2011. On top of that he fired in his second televised nine-darter against Nathan Aspinall a night after being on the receiving end of Jonny Clayton's perfect leg while he sent the darts world wild again last night with a sensational 120 checkout comprised of THREE double tops!

Aspinall must be wondering what De Sousa has against him but he did at least see the funny side of his latest stunt during a 8-3 defeat.

Aspinall did very well to defy De Sousa's nine-darter and earn a 6-6 draw in their first meeting with a 95 average compared to his opponent's 100, which was bolstered by 11 maximums that equalled Gary Anderson's record for the most in one match back in 2011.

But he couldn't really get close to the Portuguese thrower last night and his average of 92 was over 11 points less than De Sousa's 103.25 while he missed seven of his 10 attempts at his doubles as De Sousa pinned 50% including his match winning double 16 that completed a classy 149 checkout.

De Sousa, who is widely known for his miscounting from big scores, hasn't hit many 100+ finishes all season and his two last night took his tally to six whereas Aspinall's 152 moved him onto 14 for the campaign.

As much as I want Aspinall to win for my outright title tip, the momentum is with De Sousa right now and I really wouldn't be surprise whatsoever to see him emulate Duzza tonight and lift the trophy on debut.

Given the obvious strengths of each player, you can be creative with Sky Bet's alternative match treble market for this match and back De Sousa to win, hit most 180s but Aspinall to weigh in with the highest checkout at 5/1. If you think Aspinall will win then the same price is available with the other two parts of the treble included.

Last night I tipped over 10.5 maximums in the match given that Aspinall is also in the top three for 180s this season but there simply wasn't enough legs to give that bet a run. In this best of 19 legs encounter you can get 7/4 on there being 13 or more and that's more than achievable.

  • Score Prediction: 10-8
  • Suggested Bets: Jose de Sousa to win, hit most 180s and Aspinall to hit highest checkout at 5/1 (Sky Bet). Over 12.5 180s in the match at 7/4 (Sky Bet).

Possible final head-to-head statistics

Michael van Gerwen v Nathan Aspinall

  • Overall Head-to-Head: 5-5, 1 draw (TV: 3-2, 1 draw)
  • Meetings since start of 2020: 3-3, 1 draw (TV: 2-2, 1 draw)
  • Premier League 2021 Meetings
    3-8 (Night 13, May 24)
    6-6 (Night Five, April)

Michael van Gerwen v Jose de Sousa

  • Overall Head-to-Head: 4-2 (TV: 2-0)
  • Meetings since start of 2020: 3-2 (TV: 2-0)
  • Premier League 2021 Meetings
    8-6 (Night 15, May 26)
    7-4 (Night Eight, April)

Jonny Clayton v Nathan Aspinall

  • Overall Head-to-Head: 3-4, 1 draw (TV: 1-1, 1 draw)
  • Meetings since start of 2020: 1-3, 1 draw (TV: 1-1, 1 draw)
  • Premier League 2021 Meetings:
    8-6 (Night 12, May 7)
    6-6 (Night 7, April 20)

Jonny Clayton v Jose de Sousa

  • Overall Head-to-Head: 6-2 (TV: 3-1)
  • Meetings since start of 2020: 6-2 (TV: 3-1)
  • Premier League 2021 Meetings
    5-8 (Night 14, May 25)
    7-3 (Night Three, April 2021)

Where can I watch the Premier League Darts Finals night on TV?

Sky Sports will broadcast the Premier League Darts Finals night, with coverage starting from 1900 BST.

2021 Premier League Darts Table

  1. Michael van Gerwen P 16 W 10 D 3 L 3 LegD +24 Pts 23
  2. Jose de Sousa P 16 W 8 D 4 L 4 LegD +20 Pts 20
  3. Nathan Aspinall P 16 W 7 D 5 L 4 LegD +15 Pts 19
  4. Jonny Clayton P 16 W 8 D 2 L 6 LegD +7 Pts 18
  5. Dimitri Van den Bergh P 16 W 6 D 4 L 6 LegD 0 Pts 16
  6. James Wade P 16 W 5 D 5 L 6 LegD -3 Pts 15
  7. Peter Wright P 16 W 6 D 3 L 7 LegD -8 Pts 15
  8. Gary Anderson P 16 W 5 D 3 L 8 LegD -13 Pts 13
  9. Rob Cross P 9 W 3 D 1 L 5 LegD -3 Pts 7 (ELIMINATED)
  10. Glen Durrant P 9 W 0 D 0 L 9 LegD -39 Pts 0 (ELIMINATED)

CLICK HERE FOR OUR FULL TOURNAMENT GUIDE INCLUDING RESULTS, TABLE & HISTORY

Premier League Darts 2021: Season Statistics

Averages

  • Van den Bergh: 100.10
  • De Sousa: 99.78
  • Clayton: 99.21
  • Wade: 98.70
  • Van Gerwen: 98.49
  • Anderson: 97.78
  • Aspinall: 97.30
  • Wright: 96.21
  • Cross: 95.78
  • Durrant: 86.36

180s

  • De Sousa: 81
  • Van den Bergh: 72
  • Aspinall: 59
  • Anderson: 58
  • Clayton: 50
  • Wright: 47
  • Wade: 44
  • Van Gerwen: 39
  • Cross 29
  • Durrant 6

Checkout Percentage

  • Wade: 48.95%
  • Cross: 44.55%
  • Aspinall: 43.10%
  • De Sousa: 42.80%
  • Wright: 42.03%
  • Van Gerwen: 41.53%
  • Van den Bergh: 41.48%
  • Clayton: 38.46%
  • Anderson: 38.29%
  • Durrant: 30%

Most 100+ checkouts (Highest in brackets)

  • Van Gerwen: 23 (148)
  • Van den Bergh: 15 (164)
  • Clayton: 14 (150)
  • Wade: 14 (161)
  • Aspinall: 14 (161)
  • Wright: 12 (161)
  • Anderson: 11 (156)
  • De Sousa: 6 (141)
  • Cross: 2 (118)
  • Durrant: 4 (121)

Nine-dart finishes

Premier League Darts Past Finals & Winners

More darts content

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