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Nathan Aspinall and Luke Littler

Premier League Darts 2025: Night seven predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and Sky Sports TV time

By Chris Hammer and James Cooper

Darts

Thu March 20, 2025 · 3h ago

The BetMGM Premier League Darts regular season continues in Cardiff on Thursday so check out our match-by-match guide to the action.

Premier League night seven: Who wins in Cardiff?

1pt Littler to face Bunting in the final at 6/1 (Sky Bet)

By Chris Hammer

Ahead of each week of the Premier League season, James Cooper's predictive model, which is based on player performance data, will be used to chart each player's potential opponent and give a percentage chance of them beating each one, as well as forecasting the likelihood of them winning the whole night.

As you can see from the table above, Luke Littler has been handed a whopping 39% chance of winning the night in Cardiff and moving well clear at the top of the table.

He's in the 'weaker' half of the draw and boasts extremely commanding head-to-head records against both Nathan Aspinall (10-1) and Rob Cross (10-2), so it's perhaps fair to say that Gerwyn Price is the biggest threat in his section.

After all, the Iceman has incredibly won their last six meetings, including last Thursday's final in Nottingham when Price later claimed Littler would one day break Phil Taylor's record of 16 world titles.

I don't want to be guilty of sounding like one of those casino punters who see red come up on roulette seven times in a row and think the next one is 'bound to be black', but surely if their paths meet again, it's 'bound to be Littler'!? It's not like this battle is coin flip odds of 50-50. Littler has always been odds-on favourite in each one of those contests and while Price must love the challenge of taking on the biggest star in darts, eventually the tide will turn. Especially with the ridiculous standard of darts that Littler consistently produces.

The statistics so far this season after week six

As much as we all want to see Price v Littler in Cardiff, we can't discount the chances of Rob Cross playing the party pooper role given his recent stats and that would give the Nuke and even stronger chance of reaching the final.

He's faced Luke Humphries in two of his finals so far and Cool Hand would again be the safest pick from the top half, where he opens up against a struggling Michael van Gerwen in his opener.

MVG is still without a tournament win of any kind in 2025 and hasn't reached any of the Premier League finals so far this season, while he crashed out in the first round of Monday's Players Championship event with an 89 average and didn't compete the next day.

His stats are still generally impressive and he's picking up enough quarter-final wins to keep himself well in the play-off picture so it's hard to put our fingers on what exactly is going wrong. Maybe Vincent van der Voort summed it up better than anyone else when he told the Darts Draait Door podcast: “He’s not stepping on to that stage with a do-or-die mentality anymore. There’s no aggression, no fire to show that he’s still the dominant force he once was. It all looks a bit routine, a bit obligatory. It’s about how you approach the game, the energy you bring. But Michael doesn’t seem to feel that himself."

When he's put under scoreboard and scoreline pressure, there doesn't seem to be resounding responses, and Humphries will surely apply plenty of that on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Stephen Bunting has the chance to finally get off the mark after a wretched start to the campaign when he faces fellow struggler Chris Dobey, who is probably still catching up on his sleep from celebrating Newcastle's League Cup triumph on Sunday!

Liverpool fan Bunting will obviously be more worried about his play-off chances than his beloved Reds imploding in the title race but even so, he'll have a little bit of extra determination to get one over the proud Geordie.

The Bullet sits fourth for averages despite a 0-6 record that he doesn't really deserve at all, and he may feel his first Premier League meeting with Dobey this season is a perfect opportunity to get up and running.

Should he do that, then we should see Bunting play with much more freedom against either Humphries and MVG, so I feel he's worth a shot in the betting to reach the final.

CLICK HERE to back a Littler v Bunting final with Sky Bet

Night seven quarter-final stats & tips: Thursday, March 20

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
Format: Quarter-Finals, best of 11 legs
Venue: Cardiff

SL ACCA: 1pt Cross (+1.5 legs) & Bunting both to win plus Littler to hit most 180s at 4/1 with Sky Bet

Chris Dobey (19/20) v Stephen Bunting (4/5)

Head-to-Head: 12-4 (TV: 2-2)
Average (2025 all comps): 96.54 – 96.91
180s per leg (2025 overall): 0.36 - 0.31
Checkout % (2025 overall): 38.66% - 41.68%

By James Cooper

BEST BET: 2pts over 6.5 match 180s at 11/10 (General)

Despite propping up the table, Stephen Bunting is the one for the early support in the betting to finally shed his maiden status in the 2025 Premier League campaign.

For balance, his opponent, Chris Dobey hasn’t fared much better, winless since reaching the final on night 1, albeit there was a Players Championship outright victory along the way.

In fairness to Bunting, his rolling tournament average of 98.79 actually has him positioned in fourth place, so a record of 0-6 is harsh, whereas Dobey is down at 96.81 for the campaign so far.

As you’d expect from the bottom two at in the table the check out percentages do not make for pleasant reading, with Bunting at 37.5 and Dobey at 34.28 respectively.

There are probably two ways at looking at this clash.

The first school of thought would be a nervy encounter between two players struggling to find their best form.

I tend to think a different scenario may play out, though, with the pressure arguably off both and first match of the night, I can see a very entertaining clash between two of the heaviest scorers in the game.

Dobey has the football bragging rights from the weekend’s League Cup Final and he’d be my preference at the current prices but a better bet may be to focus on the OVER 6.5 MATCH 180s.

CLICK HERE to back over 6.5 180s with Sky Bet

Only Luke Littler has a higher 180s per leg return than Dobey, who has always been a reliable proposition on the maximum front.

Bunting is down a little bit at 0.33 per leg but when you consider he hasn’t won a match, that isn’t a disastrous return by any means.

Given how evenly matched the pair are in the match betting, the “expected leg” number is high for this match and a crude calculation of their current 180 hitting coupled with total expected legs has 7+ 180 visits a shade of odds on.

Score prediction: 5-6

CLICK HERE to bet on Dobey v Bunting with Sky Bet

Luke Humphries (8/15) v Michael van Gerwen (11/8)

Head-to-Head: 14-14 (TV: 10-8)
Average (2025 overall): 99.02 – 98.39
180s per leg (2025 overall): 0.31 - 0.28
Checkout % (2025 overall): 42.61% - 39.34%

By James Cooper

BEST BET: 2pts Luke Humphries most 180s at 11/10 (Bet 365 and Betfair Sportsbook)

Despite a second-place position going into week 7, Luke Humphries won’t be entirely happy with how he has played so far.

A 99.63 average can never be sniffed it but compared to Luke Littler’s tournament 103.87 figure it does look fairly pedestrian as far as Humphries is confirmed.

While the scoring power hasn’t yet been there for Cool Hand, his finishing has been exemplary, pushing on for 45%.

As for MVG, the running theme of winning his opening game before losing in the semi-final happened for a fifth time at Nottingham last week.

He’ll need to change that sequence to secure a smooth passage into the final four but the match prices look about right here so we’ll focus on a different market, with HUMPHRIES TO HIT THE MOST 180s an attractive proposition.

CLICK HERE to back Humphries to hit most 180s with Sky Bet

As referenced several times in columns already this campaign, MVG remains a shade overrated with the layers when it comes to maximum hitting.

Yes, Humphries hasn’t yet shone in that department but he’s still hitting 0.04 more 180s per leg than Van Gerwen and over a long sample of data, he should be shorter than 11/10 to win this bet.

Score prediction: 6-3

CLICK HERE to bet on Humphries v MVG with Sky Bet

Luke Littler (1/6) v Nathan Aspinall (7/2)

Head-to-Head: 10-1 (TV: 9-1)
Average (2025 overall): 102.37 – 95.64
180s per leg (2025 overall): 0.47 - 0.37
Checkout % (2025 overall): 43.76% - 39.07%

By Chris Hammer

Nathan Aspinall is obviously known for his incredible battling spirit and never-say-die attitude but whenever he plays Luke Littler, he uncharacteristically rolls over and has his tummy tickled.

Not only does he routinely get beaten (it's now eight in a row), but he does so with a big smile on his face.

Littler is the last player in the world who needs to be given an easy ride but the friendly energy Aspinall brings to their matches allows him to relax and play some of his best stuff.

The world champion has averaged 100+ in their last four meetings and also reached 109 and 110 in two of them, whereas the supportive Aspinall is always around the mid-90s mark.

However, the 10-1 head-to-head record greatly exaggerates the gulf in class. If the Asp played Littler with exactly the same attitude as anyone else, then it would be closer.

Unless this changes, then I'd expect another one-sided affair in Cardiff.

Score prediction: 6-3

CLICK HERE to bet on Littler v Aspinall with Sky Bet

Gerwyn Price (8/11) v Rob Cross (11/10)

Head-to-Head: 14-11, 2 draws (TV: 6-7, 2 draws)
Average (2025 overall): 97.71 – 97.63
180s per leg (2025 overall): 0.32 - 0.28
Checkout % (2025 overall): 42.68% - 42.53%

By Chris Hammer

Gerwyn Price will be brimming with confidence ahead of his 'home' night of of the season in Cardiff having picked up his second five-point haul of the campaign in Brighton with yet another victory over Luke Littler.

To beat the world champion six times in a row is absolutely staggering, especially when you take into account Price still has some way to go before he's back to his consistent major-winning form of old. It's not like he's the undisputed number one force in darts.

However, to earn the chance to make it seven on the spin, Price must first overcome Rob Cross, who has been producing some very impressive numbers this month.

In his last 10 matches, Voltage has averaged over 100 on six occasions and the lowest he's managed is a pretty lofty 97.23, while he's won two of his four Premier League matches to keep himself in the play-off picture.

I wouldn't be surprised Cross pull the electricity out of the pro-Price crowd in this one.

Score prediction: 4-6