The Cazoo Premier League Darts season continues in Exeter on Thursday so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match guide to the action.
Darts betting tips: Premier League night five
1pt over 8.5 legs, highest checkout to be over 101.5 and over 4.5 total 180s in MVG v Price at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Nathan Aspinall to win and Michael Smith to hit most 180s at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Dimitri Van den Bergh to hit most 180s v Chris Dobey at 27/25 (Unibet)
1pt Clayton and Wright to throw 2+ 180s each and there to be two more more 100+ checkouts at 9/4 (Paddy Power)
SL Acca: Price (+1.5), Aspinall (+1.5), Dobey (+1.5) & Wright (+1.5) at 13/2 with Sky Bet
Thursday March 2: Night five
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
- Format: Quarter-Finals, best of 11 legs
- Venue: Exeter
Michael van Gerwen (8/11) v Gerwyn Price (11/10)
- Head to Head: 27-9, 1 draw (TV: 19-6, 1 draw)
- 2022/2023 Head to Head: 5-4 (TV: 5-4)
- PL Average: 99.26 - 95.48
- PL 180s per leg: 0.29 - 0.28
- PL checkout percentage: 46.36% - 37.50%
- Legs won with 100+ checkout: 11.76% - 7.14%
Gerwyn Price should really be heading into this clash on the back of a 10th victory over his great rival and a second nightly success of the Premier League season.
But the Iceman spurned seven match darts in last week's final in Dublin and Michael van Gerwen made him pay to break his duck for the campaign.
Both their meetings this year have gone to deciding legs, with Price pinching a dramatic semi-final with MVG in Cardiff two weeks earlier, and we can probably expect another tight encounter now that they have both found a decent run of form.
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Although Price's average in the Premier League is 'only' 95.48 compared to MVG's 99.26, he actually tops the charts in all events this season with 97.81 ahead of fellow Welshman Jonny Clayton, while the Dutchman is ranked fifth with 97.42.
Both are throwing a healthy volume of 180s and it's about time Price weighs in with some more of his big 100+ checkouts having strangely only managed three in the Premier League season so far.
Scoreline prediction: 4-6
Nathan Aspinall (6/4) v Michael Smith (1/2)
- Head to Head: 7-8 (TV: 5-5)
- 2022/2023 Head to Head: 2-1 (TV: 2-1)
- PL Average: 95.57 - 98.35
- PL 180s per leg: 0.33 - 0.25
- PL checkout percentage: 30.76% - 38%
- Legs won with 100+ checkout: 8.33% - 18.42%
Michael Smith is favourite to avenge the defeat he suffered at the hands of Nathan Aspinall in the Cardiff semi-finals on February 9 but I fancy another minor upset.
The Asp produced one of his best performances of the whole season when averaging 105 during that 6-4 victory and although he ran out of steam in the final, he bounced back to defeat MVG in the Glasgow quarter-finals.
Aspinall struggled last week in a scrappy defeat to Jonny Clayton but he's still been picking up enough wins overall to retain his place in the top four at this early stage of the campaign and will always fancy his chances against anyone.
Although is PL average is slightly less than Bully Boy, it's actually marginally higher in all competitions in 2023 (95.91 v 95.44) and you could argue the fatigue factor is partly down to Smith's inconsistencies on and off the stage.
Backing Aspinall just to win at odds-against prices will be value enough for some, but it might be worth throwing in Smith to hit most 180s to enhance those odds to almost 5/1.
Although he's quite a bit behind when it comes to 180s per legs in the Premier League this season, his 98 total maximums in 2023 have come every 0.32 legs whereas Aspinall's 55 are rounded up to 0.31. Sure, it's very close but as the season continues, I'd expect the gulf to widen.
Scoreline prediction: 6-4
Dimitri Van den Bergh (4/6) v Chris Dobey (6/5)
- Head to Head: 6-4 (TV: 0-1)
- 2022 Head to Head: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
- PL Average: 97.11 - 95.58
- PL 180s per leg: 0.32 - 0.26
- PL checkout percentage: 49.27% - 38.02%
- Legs won with 100+ checkout: 5.88% - 14.81%
Dimitri Van den Bergh and Chris Dobey haven't played each other since October 2021 but it's a fixture we should see a lot more of this season and beyond as they consolidate their places in the top 16 in the world.
If Dobey looks at the odds, he might feel a little aggrieved to be priced up as the outsider to pick up his fourth victory of the season and first since he so memorably won the opening night in Belfast.
Van den Bergh has lost two of his quarter-finals and won the same amount of matches overall and while his Premier League average is a little higher, the Northumberland ace actually has a superior one in all competitions this year at 95.52 compared to 94.77.
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He is of course a major champion this year having struck glory at the Masters so there's no reason why he should feel an underdog in the slightest on Thursday night.
The 180 battle is also an intriguing one. Van den Bergh ranks second overall for maximums per leg in the Premier League this season with 0.32 compared to Dobey's surprisingly low - by his past standards - 0.26 while in all competitions combined it's 0.33 vs 0.26.
Van den Bergh is just above even-money in places to chalk up the most 180s and I think there's enough evidence to be confident about that.
Scoreline prediction: 4-6
Jonny Clayton (10/11) v Peter Wright (10/11)
- Head to Head: 6-15, 1 draw (TV: 5-6, 1 draw)
- 2022/2023 Head to Head: 4-6 (TV: 4-2)
- PL Average: 95.55 - 97.14
- PL 180s per leg: 0.24 - 0.28
- PL checkout percentage: 34.25% - 37.50%
- Legs won with 100+ checkout: 8% - 33.33%
The only minor positive to Peter Wright's pointless start to the Premier League season is that he won't have any fatigue issues ahead of this crucial UK Open weekend.
Since the start of February, Snakebite has just played just 39 legs of Premier League darts and a mere six other matches across three Players Championship and European Tour events.
Compare that to Jonny Clayton, who has played 54 Premier League legs and 21 other matches across five tournaments.
More importantly, he's found his way into an encouraging run form which has helped him soar to the top of the Players Championship averages with 99.62 and reach the semi-finals of the opening European Tour event of the campaign last weekend.
Wright averaged just 88 in his quarter-final defeat to Keegan Brown on Sunday while he was well below his best from a performance point of view against Michael Smith last Thursday despite narrowly losing 6-5.
Clayton has lost the last three encounters with Peter Wright, including in this year's Masters quarter-finals, but he did win four of their five Premier League meetings in 2022 so their recent head-to-head record is pretty even.
Based on the obvious form lines, Clayton is the most likely winner but this is such a short format that a player of Wright's ability can easily bounce back and win the night, let alone this match.
Despite his poor results he's managed to weigh in with a healthy 0.28 maximums per leg in the Premier League and five 100+ checkouts of 120 or higher despite winning just 15 legs in his four matches.
Clayton managed six maximums in 19 legs last Thursday while at the weekend he fired in six 100+ checkouts in the 23 legs he won. Expect the pair to combine for an entertaining showdown in Exeter.
Scoreline prediction: 5-6
Premier League Darts 2023: Table, Averages, 180s and checkout statistics
- After week four
TOURNAMENT AVERAGE
- Michael van Gerwen: 99.26
- Michael Smith: 98.35
- Peter Wright: 97.14
- Dimitri Van den Bergh: 97.11
- Chris Dobey: 95.58
- Nathan Aspinall: 95.57
- Jonny Clayton: 95.55
- Gerwyn Price: 95.48
MOST 180s & 180s PER LEG
- Michael van Gerwen: 26 (0.29)
- Nathan Aspinall: 25 (0.33)
- Gerwyn Price: 22 (0.28)
- Dimitri Van den Bergh: 21 (0.32)
- Michael Smith: 19 (0.25)
- Chris Dobey: 15 (0.26)
- Jonny Clayton: 13 (0.24)
- Peter Wright: 11 (0.28)
DOUBLES AND CHECKOUT PERCENTAGE
- Dimitri Van den Bergh: 34/69 (49.27%)
- Michael van Gerwen: 51/110 (46.36%)
- Chris Dobey: 27/71 (38.02%)
- Michael Smith: 38/100 (38.00%)
- Peter Wright: 15/40 (37.50%)
- Gerwyn Price: 42/112 (37.50%)
- Jonny Clayton: 25/73 (34.25%)
- Nathan Aspinall: 36/117 (30.76%)
100+ CHECKOUTS, HIGHEST CHECKOUTS & % LEGS WON WITH 100+ CHECKOUT
- Michael Smith: 7 (18.42% legs won with 100+ checkout)
100+ Checkouts: 148, 140, 137, 122, 121x2, 115 - Michael van Gerwen: 6 (11.76%)
100+ Checkouts: 170, 142, 114, 112, 106, 105 - Peter Wright: 5 (33.33%)
100+ Checkouts: 156, 133, 122, 121, 120 - Chris Dobey: 4 (14.81%)
100+ Checkouts: 170, 160, 148, 121 - Nathan Aspinall: 3 (8.33%)
100+ Checkouts: 136, 130, 110 - Gerwyn Price: 3 (7.14%)
100+ Checkouts: 116, 106, 100 - Dimitri Van den Bergh: 2 (5.88%)
100+ Checkouts: 127, 121 - Jonny Clayton: 2 (8%)
100+ Checkouts: 120, 116
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