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Jonny Clayton and Nathan Aspinall (Picture: PDC)

Premier League Darts 2023: Night 16 predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and Sky Sports TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Thu May 18, 2023 · 1y ago

The Cazoo Premier League Darts regular season concludes in Aberdeen on Thursday so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match guide to the action.

Darts betting tips: Premier League night 16

1pt Price v Wright to have 5+ 180s and 2+ 100+ checkouts at 12/5 (William Hill)

1pt Aspinall to beat Clayton and hit most 180s at 9/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)

1pt MVG v Dobey to have the most 180s in the quarter-finals at 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

SL Acca: Price, Aspinall, Smith & MVG all to win with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Thursday May 18: Night 16

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
Format: Quarter-Finals, best of 11 legs
Venue: P&J Live, Aberdeen

Gerwyn Price (2/5) v Peter Wright (7/4)

Head to Head: 12-23, 1 draw (TV: 10-11, 1 draw)
2023 Head to Head: 1-3 (TV: 1-3)
PL Average: 98.44 - 93.69
PL 180s per leg: 0.33 - 0.21
PL checkout percentage: 39.90% - 38.53%
Legs won with 100+ checkout: 8.04% - 14.28%

Yes, the 2023 head-to-head record above is correct. Peter Wright leads Gerwyn Price 3-1 despite the massively contrasting seasons!

And now that Snakebite heads into his final fixture of the Premier League campaign on the back of his first ranking title of the season, we can't be too surprised if he extends his superiority over the Welshman.

However, a rested Gerwyn Price, who didn't compete in the weekend's Czech Darts Open, has most to play for as he chases the honour of topping the regular season table.

To guarantee this, he must reach the final or match Michael Smith's run in Aberdeen - and even a defeat to Wright will be enough if Bully Boy fails to go the distance.

That said, it's not quite a dead rubber for Snakebite. He's trying to avoid ending the regular season with the wooden spoon and also won't want the ignominy of failing to pick up a single nightly success.

Wright averaged over 100 on two occasions at the weekend which is the same amount as he'd managed in his previous 12 matches and his general standard was far more consistent than what we've seen from him this season.

Price may have lost last week's final to Smith with an average of 92 but he managed 105 and 111 in his previous two matches on the night which means he's now produced 23 ton+ averages in his last 28 matches in all competitions and he's only dropped below 100 four times in his last 19 matches.

I'm going for the Iceman but it could be pretty close high-quality affair.

Predicted Scoreline: 6-4

Jonny Clayton (8/11) v Nathan Aspinall (11/10)

Head to Head: 6-4, 1 draw (TV: 3-1, 1 draw)
2023 Head to Head: 2-0 (TV: 2-0)
PL Average: 94.74 - 95.78
PL 180s per leg: 0.19 - 0.31
PL checkout percentage: 44.00% - 35.60%
Legs won with 100+ checkout: 13.22% - 13.91%

This is obviously the only quarter-final that really matters as Jonny Clayton faces Nathan Aspinall with the final play-off spot up for grabs.

Clayton is two points ahead of Aspinall in fourth place so victory will obviously secure his place in next week's finale at the O2 while his opponent must progress to the night's final to overhaul the Ferret, who will qualify via nights won if the pair finish level on points.

Both of their previous meetings this year have gone the way of Clayton via 6-4 scorelines but their form lines are very similar in this tournament. In the last four weeks they've picked up four wins and seven points although Aspinall has lost his last two quarter-finals to see Clayton climb above him in the table.

They both reached the quarter-finals of the weekend's European Tour event but Aspinall delivered better performances - averaging 104, 106 and 99 in his three matches which included a narrow 6-5 defeat to Dave Chisnall.

I fancy the Asp to take this race to the wire by winning this contest and I'll also throw in the most 180s considering how much more frequently he's been hitting them this season.

Predicted Scoreline: 4-6

CLICK HERE to back Aspinall to win and have most 180s with Sky Bet

Michael Smith (4/11) v Dimitri Van den Bergh (2/1)

Head to Head: 8-5 (TV: 3-3)
2023 Head to Head: 4-0 (TV: 3-0)
PL Average: 97.79 - 95.16
PL 180s per leg: 0.34 - 0.26
PL checkout percentage: 40.00% - 38.79%
Legs won with 100+ checkout: 12.33% - 8.8%

Virtually all signs point towards Michael Smith breezing through this clash and it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see him maintain his hot streak of form by reaching a fourth successive final.

If Bully Boy does get that far, he'll hope he isn't playing Price for the third final in four weeks because that would mean he can't surpass the Iceman at the top of the regular season table given he heads into the night three points behind him.

Should he pick up all five points for the fourth week running against anyone else then he'll finish top based on total nights won - but let's focus on this quarter-final for now.

He's beaten Dimitri Van den Bergh in all four of their meetings in all competitions this season, including three in the Premier League, and the closest the Belgian got to him was a 6-4 scoreline back in February.

Smith is ahead on all meaningful statistics and has averaged over 100 in six of his last 14 matches in all competitions but not gone lower than 93 in any of them. He's generally been far more consistent at winning and producing high level performances than VDB, who has reached three figures three times in the same amount of games and last reached a Premier League final in week three.

The short format will always help the underdog but he'll probably need to rely on Smith being below-par.

Predicted Scoreline: 6-3

Michael van Gerwen (2/5) v Chris Dobey (7/4)

Head to Head: 14-4 (TV: 5-4)
2023 Head to Head: 2-2 (TV: 2-2)
PL Average: 98.18 - 97.57
PL 180s per leg: 0.30 - 0.30
PL checkout percentage: 38.15% - 38.29%
Legs won with 100+ checkout: 11.76% - 13.33%

Michael van Gerwen has almost been living in the shadows of Gerwyn Price and Michael Smith when it comes to the Premier League in recent weeks and bizarrely hasn't reached a final since night eight and his last of three successes came on night six!

He could still top the regular season table if he collects all five points and both Price and Smith lose in the quarter-finals - although even then there's still a sizeable legs difference to make up as well.

MVG is probably not really thinking about those permutations - instead he just wants to win his fourth night of the season to send out a warning ahead of next week's finale at the O2, where he will fancy his chances despite his recent Premier League form.

After all, he did win a European Tour event a fortnight ago and is still regularly producing averages in the high 90s and early 100s.

Chris Dobey is playing for pride and won't be scared of a player he's beaten twice out of four Premier League meetings this season, including that famous 6-0 trouncing back in March.

Although I'm expecting MVG to come through it, Dobey's recent performance levels suggests he can run the Dutchman very close having averaged over 100 in five of his last nine matches in all competitions.

The pair are also two of the most prolific 180 hitters in the competitions so if we do see at least 10 legs, then this really could be the quarter-final that produces most maximums at a tempting price.

Predicted Scoreline: 6-4.

CLICK HERE to back MVG v Dobey to produce most 180s in the QFs with Sky Bet

The Premier League Darts table after week 14

Premier League Darts 2023: Averages, 180s and checkout statistics

After week 15

TOURNAMENT AVERAGE

Michael van Gerwen: 98.08
Gerwyn Price: 97.97
Michael Smith: 97.51
Chris Dobey: 97.07
Nathan Aspinall: 95.82
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 95.13
Jonny Clayton: 94.65
Peter Wright: 93.80

MOST 180s & 180s PER LEG

Gerwyn Price: 90 (0.33)
Michael Smith: 85 (0.37)
Michael van Gerwen: 74 (0.30)
Nathan Aspinall: 73 (0.32)
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 47 (0.26)
Chris Dobey: 46 (0.28)
Jonny Clayton: 41 (0.20)
Peter Wright: 36 (0.21)

DOUBLES AND CHECKOUT PERCENTAGE

Jonny Clayton: 96/222 (43.24%)
Chris Dobey: 73/181 (40.33%)
Gerwyn Price: 157/391 (40.15%)
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 84/211 (39.80%)
Peter Wright: 75/193 (38.86%)
Michael van Gerwen: 139/359 (38.71%)
Michael Smith: 118/311 (37.94%)
Nathan Aspinall: 110/307 (35.83%)

100+ CHECKOUTS, HIGHEST CHECKOUTS & % LEGS WON WITH 100+ CHECKOUT

Michael van Gerwen: 17 (11.4% legs won with 100+ checkout)
100+ Checkouts: 170, 154, 150, 142, 125, 120, 114, 112x2, 106, 106, 105, 104, 101x2, 100x2
Michael Smith: 17 (12.5%)
100+ Checkouts: 164, 160, 148, 140, 137, 136, 130, 122x2, 121x2, 120, 116, 115, 111, 110, 100
Nathan Aspinall: 16 (14.2%)
100+ Checkouts: 143, 140, 136, 130, 126, 124, 121, 118, 116, 112, 110, 109, 108, 100x3
Jonny Clayton: 15 (15.6%)
100+ Checkouts: 142, 125, 124, 121x5, 120, 118, 116x3, 112, 102
Chris Dobey: 12 (14.6%)
100+ Checkouts: 170x2, 160, 148, 137, 127, 125, 121, 114, 112, 103, 100
Gerwyn Price: 11 (6.9%)
100+ Checkouts: 156, 148, 140, 138, 117, 116, 110, 108, 106, 100x2
Peter Wright: 10 (12.5%)
100+ Checkouts: 156, 133, 130, 125, 122, 121x3, 120, 116
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 7 (8.1%)
100+ Checkouts: 140, 127x3, 126, 121x2