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Michael Smith, Michael van Gerwen, Gerwyn Price and Jonny Clayton (Picture: Steven Paston/PDC)

Premier League Darts 2023: Finals night play-off predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and Sky Sports TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Thu May 25, 2023 · 1y ago

The Cazoo Premier League Darts season concludes with the play-offs at the O2 on Thursday night so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match guide to the action.

Darts betting tips: Premier League night 16

0.5pts Jonny Clayton to have a 121 checkout at 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

1pt Price and Clayton to have 3+ 180s each and 1+ 100+ checkout each at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Michael Smith to hit hit 6+ 180s and have a checkout of 120+ at 5/2 (Sky Bet)

1pt Michael Smith to hit most 180s on Finals night at 2/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)

1pt every player to have a 100+ checkout in the semi-finals at 9/4 (Sky Bet, William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Thursday May 25: Finals Night

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 BST)
Format: Semi-Finals, best of 19 legs
Venue: O2 Arena, London

Gerwyn Price (4/11) v Jonny Clayton (2/1)

Head to Head: 20-11 (TV: 12-8)
2023 Head to Head: 5-1 (TV: 5-1)
PL Average: 98.31 - 94.70
PL 180s per leg: 0.33 - 0.19
PL checkout percentage: 39.30% - 44.04%
Legs won with 100+ checkout: 8.4% - 13.9%

Gerwyn Price is preparing for his first ever Premier League Play-Offs after an incredible regular season in which he topped the table, won four nights and boasted the highest tournament average of 98.31.

The nine finals he reached across the 16 weeks was two more than his nearest challenger - Michael Smith - and nobody can dispute him being the title favourite.

Prior to last week, Price had produced 23 ton+ averages in his last 28 matches in all competitions so I guess by these incredible standards, he's gone off the boil a little in the last seven days.

Having lost last week's final to Dimitri Van den Bergh with a 93.13 average, he 'only' surpassed 100 in four of his nine matches during the weekend's two Players Championship events, and didn't go further than the quarter-finals. But when you think he only dropped below 95 once, it seems ridiculously harsh to call this a blip!

The increased format plays into his hands rather than the relatively 'lottery' format of best of 11 which he still coped with remarkably well on a consistent basis throughout the regular season.

That said, he can't afford an off day against his good friend Jonny Clayton, who scraped into the top four by the skin of his teeth despite a quarter-final defeat to Nathan Aspinall last week.

Apart from that, the second half of his regular season was very strong, winning back-to-back nights at the turn before a further four match victories saw him pip the Asp based on total nights won.

At the weekend he clinched his first Players Championship title in over two years thanks to a fine triumph over Josh Rock while he also averaged in excess of 100 three times during his seven matches, including a 110 and a 107.

These kind of levels can give Price problems and I'm expecting a clash of real quality that's closer than most expect.

While the Iceman has been particularly ruthless with heavy scoring and 180 hitting this season, Clayton has produced fireworks with 100+ checkouts in recent weeks.

By the end of March, the Welshman had only managed four of these three-figure finishes in 15 matches. Since then he's fired 13 in just 57 legs that he won during 13 matches.

He's gone 120 or higher 11 times including five from 121 so I'll have a small speculative punt on him finding that finish again at 14/1.

Price may not have been 'that' prolific from distance this season - he's won 8.4% of his legs with one which is the lowest of the play-off quartet - but we know what fireworks he can produce on the big occasion and he should also contribute with at least one.

There's a special of both players to hit three or more 180s and one or more 100+ checkout each at 11/8 - and these targets are very achievable, especially if we get a pretty lengthy battle.

Scoreline prediction: 10-8

CLICK HERE to back Price and Clayton to have 3+ 180s each and 1+ 100+ checkout each with Sky Bet

Michael Smith (10/11) v Michael van Gerwen (10/11)

Head to Head: 15-39 (TV: 10-19)
2023 Head to Head: 3-2 (TV: 3-2)
PL Average: 97.70 - 98.19
PL 180s per leg: 0.34 - 0.30
PL checkout percentage: 39.40% - 37.85%
Legs won with 100+ checkout: 12.0% - 11.3%

Michael van Gerwen is chasing a record-breaking seventh Premier League title at the O2 but a shoulder injury sustained in last week's quarter-final victory over Chris Dobey looked to be a genuine concern.

Despite pulling out of subsequent clash with eventual nightly champion Dimitri Van den Bergh, he was fit enough to participate in the weekend's Players Championship events and managed to produce three decent enough performances to suggest he's well on the mend.

His three best averages were 101, 98 and 97 although he did drop to 92 and 89 in two of his other displays so if he's not 100%, then Michael Smith could have an 'easier' semi-final than expected.

The world champion may not have unleashed the same level of 100+ performances as consistently as Gerwyn Price in the second half of the Premier League season but he did win three of the last four weeks of the season four of the last six finals, so it would be fair to rate him marginal favourite to set up another clash with the Welshman.

Not only does Bully Boy boast the highest 180 per leg ratio in the Premier League this season (0.34) but he also threw more 100+ checkouts with 19, winning 12% of his legs that way.

A whopping 13 of those were all 120+ finishes so a special that appeals to me is Smith to hit 6+ 180s and have a checkout of 120 or more at 5/2.

You can get the same price on 7+ 180s and one 100+ checkout with Sky Bet which you may prefer if you're more confident on him wracking up more maximums.

Meanwhile, Van Gerwen has hit 18 100+ checkouts this year, winning 11.3% of his legs that way, so I'd fancy all four of the semi-finalists to manage one at a price of 9/4.

Scoreline prediction: 10-7

Who will win the title?

I'm predicting a Gerwyn Price v Michael Smith final which would see them meeting for the ninth time this season in all competitions and for the seventh in the Premier League.

Bully Boy has won their last two - which were in the Leeds and Sheffield finals over the past few weeks - but overall it's four victories apiece in a fascinating rivalry.

It really would be a fitting end to the competition which is often criticised for seeing the same match-ups too many times! But at least it should be a spectacular way for the campaign to end.

Such a clash would be extremely hard to call and at the moment, Price is 6/4 title favourite ahead of Smith at 11/4.

Although I would side slightly with Smith, I prefer to back him at 2/1 to hit the most 180s on the entire night. As previously mentioned he boasts the highest 180 per leg count in the competition and we saw during the World Championship final what he can do on the biggest of occasions.

CLICK HERE to back Michael Smith to hit most 180s on Finals Night with Sky Bet

Premier League Darts 2023: Table, averages, 180s and checkout statistics

After week 16

The Premier League Darts table after the regular season

TOURNAMENT AVERAGE

Gerwyn Price: 98.31
Michael van Gerwen: 98.19
Michael Smith: 97.70
Chris Dobey: 97.32
Nathan Aspinall: 95.72
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 95.59
Jonny Clayton: 94.70
Peter Wright: 93.45

MOST 180s & 180s PER LEG

Gerwyn Price: 112 (0.33)
Michael Smith: 102 (0.34)
Michael van Gerwen: 87 (0.30)
Nathan Aspinall: 82 (0.31)
Chris Dobey: 62 (0.29)
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 59 (0.27)
Jonny Clayton: 50 (0.19)
Peter Wright: 44 (0.21)

DOUBLES AND CHECKOUT PERCENTAGE

Jonny Clayton: 122/277 (44.04%)
Michael Smith: 158/401 (39.40%)
Gerwyn Price: 191/486 (39.30%)
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 102/260 (39.23%)
Peter Wright: 86/224 (38.39%)
Michael van Gerwen: 159/420 (37.85%)
Chris Dobey: 93/250 (37.20%)
Nathan Aspinall: 124/342 (36.25%)

100+ CHECKOUTS, HIGHEST CHECKOUTS & % LEGS WON WITH 100+ CHECKOUT

Michael Smith: 19 (12.0% legs won with 100+ checkout)
100+ Checkouts: 164, 160, 148, 140, 137, 136, 130x2, 122x2, 121x2, 120, 116, 115, 111, 110, 106, 100
Michael van Gerwen: 18 (11.3%)
100+ Checkouts: 170, 154x2, 150, 142, 125, 120, 114, 112x2, 106, 106, 105, 104, 101x2, 100x2
Nathan Aspinall: 17 (13.7%)
100+ Checkouts: 143, 140, 136, 130, 126, 124, 121, 118, 116, 112, 110x2, 109, 108, 100x3
Jonny Clayton: 17 (13.9%)
100+ Checkouts: 170, 160, 142, 125, 124, 121x5, 120, 118, 116x3, 112, 102
Gerwyn Price: 16 (8.4%)
100+ Checkouts: 158, 156, 148, 140, 138, 129, 128, 117, 116, 110, 108, 106, 104, 100x3
Chris Dobey: 12 (12.9%)
100+ Checkouts: 170x2, 160, 148, 137, 127, 125, 121, 114, 112, 103, 100
Peter Wright: 12 (13.9%)
100+ Checkouts: 156, 133, 130, 126, 125, 124, 122, 121x3, 120, 116
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 10 (9.8%)
100+ Checkouts: 151, 148, 140, 132, 127x3, 126, 121x2