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Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith (Picture: Simon O’Connor/PDC)
Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith (Picture: Simon O’Connor/PDC)

PDC World Darts Championship final: Michael Smith v Michael van Gerwen betting tips, predictions, odds, statistics, H2H record & Sky Sports TV start time

By Chris Hammer
Darts
Tue January 03, 2023 · 2y ago

Michael Smith and Michael van Gerwen will contest the PDC's Cazoo World Darts Championship final and our guide includes tournament statistics, head-to-head records, how they got here, betting tips plus TV details of when and where to watch.

After 15 days of incredible darting drama featuring classic matches, shocks, comebacks, unexpected runs, comical bullseye rejections and over 850 180s, the Sid Waddell Trophy will be fittingly lifted by one of the two best players in the tournament.

The only thing we're missing is a nine-dart finish but there's still potentially 13 more sets for that to change.

Michael van Gerwen has looked in ominous form right from the very start as he goes in search of his fourth world title in his sixth final and two-time runner-up Michael Smith, who is my pre-tournament tip at 8/1, will probably need to get close to his very best if he's to trouble the mighty Dutchman.

And just to add extra spice into the occasion, the winner will become world number one.

Enough of the scene setting, here's a closer look at all the key statistics and other various factors to help you with your bets ahead Tuesday night's climax at the Alexandra Palace...

Darts betting tips: PDC World Championship final

1pt Michael van Gerwen to win and Michael Smith to hit most 180s at 11/8 (Sky Bet, bet365)

1pt 31+ 180s and 4+ 100 checkouts in the match at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

0.5pts nine-dart finish in the match at 12/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

CLICK ON THE IMAGE FOR SKY BET'S SPECIAL OFFER
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Michael Smith (5/2) v Michael van Gerwen (2/7)

  • PDC World Darts Championship final: Tuesday January 3
    TV coverage & start time: Sky Sports Main Event (1945 GMT)
  • Format: Best of 13 sets. All sets best of five legs except the 13th, when either player will need to win by two clear legs until it reaches a sudden-death leg at 5-5.

SMITH v MVG: HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD

Although Michael van Gerwen bosses the overall head-to-head record that dates all the way back to 2011 when the pair were battling on the Development Tour, it's important to stress that since 2020 he only leads 7-6 and pretty much all of those 13 matches in all competitions have been very close. In fact, Michael Smith won 80 legs compared to MVG's 79 in that run of games.

Just look at the scorelines in this year's meetings above - there's hardly anything in it. Smith finally opened his account against MVG at the sixth time of asking but then won the next two, including the final of the US Darts Masters. Bully Boy isn't afraid of van Gerwen and knows how to keep his cool and pile on the pressure.

2023 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP STATISTICS

(Michael Smith figures on the left, scroll further down for match-by-match stats)

  • Tournament Average: 97.64 - 104.63
    100+ match averages: 2 - 5
    Highest average: 103.25 (L16) - 108.28 (SF)
    Lowest average: 91.63 (QF) - 92.19 (R2)
  • Tournament 180s: 44 - 32
    180s per leg: 0.34 - 0.33
  • Doubles hit (Checkout %): 76/180 (42.22%) - 70/157 (44.59%)
  • Sets won/lost: 22/7 - 22/3
    Legs won/lost: 76/51 - 70/28
  • 100+ checkouts: 9 - 5
    Per leg won: 11.84% - 7.14%
    Highest checkout: 170 - 170
  • Match Treble% (win, most 180s + high C/O): 40% - 40%

Michael van Gerwen's statistics are quite simply phenomenal. He's averaged over 100 in all five of his matches and apart from a courageous effort from Mensur Suljovic, he's destroyed everyone in his path.

This is the kind of consistency that we got so used to seeing from him in the pre-Covid era when he made 100 averages look so easy for years on end while those dodgy performances that regularly hampered his 2020 and 2021 seasons are becoming rarer and rarer every passing month.

DELETE CAPTION

He's now averaged over 100 in 12 of his last 16 matches since losing to Chris Dobey at the European Championship back in October and is overall average in that run is well over 103.

As for Michael Smith, well he's managed a couple of 100+ averages against Joe Cullen and Gabriel Clemens thanks to finding his breathtaking 180 range in both contests and he's got to be at that level again tonight. If he has the kind of lapses he suffered against Martin Schindler and Stephen Bunting then it could be another final to forget.

ALSO READ: PAUL NICHOLSON'S REVIEW OF THE SEASON

Scroll down for Paul Nicholson's darting moments of the year
CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO READ NICHOLSON'S REVIEW OF THE SEASON

2022 SEASON STATS (PRE-WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP)

(Michael Smith figures on the left. Stats courtesy of @CarlyFletch and his @DartsTracker)

  • 2022 Titles: 6 - 10 (TV: 2 - 5)
  • Three-Dart Average: 96.83 – 98.43
  • 180s per leg: 0.35 – 0.27
  • Checkout percentage (Stage Events): 39.46% - 39.01%
  • 100+ checkout per leg won: 10.20% - 13.78%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 32% - 26.71%

Obviously these statistics are not quite so relevant now but it's just a telling reminder that Michael Smith isn't too far behind Michael van Gerwen average-wise while he's generally a more prolific 180 hitter.

Also, nobody came closer to MVG's title count this year than Smith which just goes to show how confident and mentally strong Bully Boy has become when it comes to the big matches.

ALSO READ: PAUL NICHOLSON ON THE PREMIER LEAGUE DEBATE

Who will be in the Premier League line-up?
Click on the image to read who Paul Nicholson thinks will be in the Premier League line-up?

ROUTES TO THE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL

MICHAEL SMITH

  • R2: 3-0 v Nathan Rafferty
    Set scores: 3-0, 3-0, 3-0
    Average: 96.62
    180s: 3 (0.33 per leg)
    100+ Checkouts: 2 (High: 130)
    Checkout %: 39.1% (9/23)
  • R3: 4-3 v Martin Schindler
    Set scores: 2-3, 3-0, 2-3, 1-3, 3-2, 3-1, 3-1
    Average: 95.36
    180s: 6 (0.20 per leg)
    100+ Checkouts: 2 (High: 170)
    Checkout %: 40.5% (17/42)
  • R4: 4-1 v Joe Cullen
    Set scores: 3-2, 0-3, 3-0, 3-2, 3-2
    Average: 103.25
    180s: 10 (0.48 per leg)
    100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 76)
    Checkout %: 40% (12/30)
  • QF: 5-3 v Stephen Bunting
    Set scores: 3-2, 0-3, 3-1, 3-1, 3-0, 0-3, 1-3, 3-1
    Average: 91.63
    180s: 6 (0.20 per leg)
    100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 87)
    Checkout %: 47.1% (16/34)
  • SF: 6-2 v Gabriel Clemens
    Set scores: 3-2, 2-3, 3-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-2, 3-2, 3-1
    Average: 101.85
    180s: 19 (0.51 per leg)
    100+ Checkouts: 5 (High: 161)
    Checkout %: 43.1% (22/51)

Michael Smith's run to the final has been fairly up and down when it comes to his performance level.

He didn't need to produce any fireworks in despatching Nathan Rafferty 3-0 without dropping a leg but he then had to show every ounce of his fighting spirit and mental strength to battle back from the brink against Martin Schindler. Apart from hitting a 170 checkout, Bully Boy struggled to get close to his A-game for much of the contest but after edging the fifth set 3-2, he picked things up and motored through the next two sets 3-1 to keep his hopes alive.

The way he played against Joe Cullen in the last 16 and Gabriel Clemens in the semi-finals is what we've come to expect from him - lots of 180s, heavy scoring and pretty ruthless finishing - and he will need to be at those levels tonight in all areas of his game. The only plus side from his performance against Stephen Bunting inbetween those matches was how he found a way to win despite averaging considerably less than his St Helens rival with 91.63 and only managing six 180s.

MICHAEL VAN GERWEN

  • R2: 3-0 v Lewy Williams
    Set scores: 3-1, 3-0, 3-0
    Average: 101.84
    180s: 3 (0.3 per leg)
    100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 94)
    Checkout %: 50% (9/18)
  • R3: 4-2 v Mensur Suljovic
    Set scores: 3-2, 3-2, 1-3, 3-2, 2-3, 3-1
    Average: 107.66
    180s: 12 (0.50 per leg)
    100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 101)
    Checkout %: 38.5% (15/39)
  • R4: 4-1 v Dirk van Duijvenbode
    Set scores: 3-1, 3-1, 1-3, 3-2, 3-0
    Average: 100.42
    180s: 3 (0.15 per leg)
    100+ Checkouts: 2 (High: 120)
    Checkout %: 43.3% (13/30)
  • QF: 5-0 v Chris Dobey
    Set scores: 3-1, 3-1, 3-0, 3-0, 3-1
    Average: 102.39
    180s: 5 (0.27 per leg)
    100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 152)
    Checkout %: 33.3% (20/60)
  • SF: 6-0 v Dimitri Van den Bergh
    Set scores: 3-2, 3-0, 3-0, 3-2, 3-0, 3-0
    Average: 108.28
    180s: 9 (0.41 per leg)
    100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 170)
    Checkout %: 58.1% (18/31)

If you didn't know the scorelines of these games, you'd probably be shocked to learn that the only player to give him a little scare was Mensur Suljovic despite posting a massive averaging 107.66! In truth, it wasn't actually that close, with Suljovic's 161 memorable checkout to clinch the fifth set 3-2 merely delaying the inevitable as MVG swiftly bounced back to wrap up the sixth 3-1.

Apart from that it's just been one-way traffic without any hiccups and he's now won 13 sets on the bounce since Dirk van Duijvenbode managed one in his 4-1 victory over his fellow Dutchman. His opponents have also wilted under the barrage of consistently heavy scoring and unrelenting pressure and Suljovic aside, they've looked beaten very early on.

We'll perhaps only see the defeatist side of Smith if he ends up in a perilous position after four or five sets - but hopefully not before.

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL: PREDICTION AND BEST BETS

On a personal note, I'm hoping Michael Smith can win his first world title having tipped him to do so at 8/1 pre-tournament on these very pages, but I can't deny that the evidence has staked up in Michael van Gerwen's favour. He's simply looking unplayable.

That said, only Mensur Suljovic has produced a 100+ average against him and perhaps his performance levels will be wobbled by Bully Boy if he can reach the same standards we saw from him against Joe Cullen and Gabriel Clemens - as well as during his many other title-winning periods over the past 12 months.

Much has been made of Smith's mental strength these days and he heads into his third world championship final in a completely different place than his previous two; as a major winner.

That Grand Slam of Darts triumph - as well as all those close battles with MVG this season that we mentioned earlier - will give him real belief to make this a classic final for the ages that keeps us on the edge of our seats.

Not that it would be any consolation whatsoever for Smith, but I'd still expect Bully Boy to edge the 180s battle even though their maximum per leg ratios are very similar (0.34 v 0.33) and both have reached 0.50 highs and slipped to 0.20 lows along the way.

Who will make the Premier League Darts line-up?

The St Helens man is generally a more prolific 180 hitter and in last year's final defeat against Peter Wright he managed 24 of the 41 to equal a World Championship match record that Snakebite set against Gary Anderson 24 hours earlier while his tournament tally of 83 smashed the Flying Scotsman's other maximum record of 71.

That match tally of 41 was just one fewer than the record van Gerwen (20) and Anderson (42) set in the 2017 climax and the way both tonight's finalists have played so far, they could get pretty close, especially if we see at least 12 sets. In fact, Sky Bet offer 10/1 that’s Smith hits a record-breaking 25+ maximums (20/1 for MVG) and 12/1 that there are 43 or more in the match.

As for 100+ checkouts, Smith was struggling to find his range before landing five of them against Gabriel Clemens, while van Gerwen only failed to do so against Lewy Williams in round one. That said, MVG is nowhere near his seasonal 'legs won with a 100+ checkout percentage' of 13% so don't be remotely surprised if he suddenly unleashes a torrent of them tonight.

Finally, I'm going to throw in the nine-dart finish at a Price Boosted 12/1 with Sky Bet.

There were three perfect legs in last year's tournament but remarkably we've not seen any this time around despite so many near misses. Both players have started legs with six trebles in a row on a few occasions and I was in the Ally Pally see Smith's attempt against Joe Cullen go down at the eighth dart.

The rate these guys are hitting maximums, I'd like to think there will be a couple of chances tonight and hopefully we'll have more reason to celebrate!

CRAZY DARTS MOMENTS OF 2022! Paul Nicholson's review of the year

SMITH v VAN GERWEN: CAREER HONOURS

  • Senior Career PDC titles: 20 - 146
    Televised PDC Titles/Finals: 3/14 - 61/82
    Titles this season: 6 (TV: 2) - 10 (TV: 5)
  • PDC World Championship appearances: 11 - 15
    PDC World Championship Best: Runner-up (2019, 2022) - Winner (2014, 2017, 2019)

As you can see quite clearly, there's a huge difference in the amount of titles won by both players but you can say that about pretty much anyone in comparison to Michael van Gerwen.

At least this year it's been pretty close and Michael Smith could well be about to go on a winning spree of his own over the next few years having broken his duck at the Grand Slam of Darts.

Michael Smith: Roll of honour

  • Grand Slam of Darts champion (2022)
  • US Darts Masters (2022)
  • Shanghai Darts Masters (2018)
  • 5x European Tour titles
  • 12x Pro Tour titles
  • 2x World Championship runner-up (2019, 2022)
  • World Matchplay runner-up (2019)
  • Premier League runner-up (2018)
  • UK Open runner-up (2022)
  • European Championship runner-up (2022)
  • Masters runner-up (2020)
  • World Series of Darts Finals runner-up (2018)

Michael van Gerwen: Roll of honour

What time does Smith v van Gerwen start and what TV channel is it on?

Coverage of the final between Michael Smith and Peter Wright starts at 7.45pm on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Darts, with the match expected to begin around 8.00pm.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL TOURNAMENT RESULTS AND AVERAGES

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