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Luke Littler
Luke Littler

PDC World Darts Championship 2024: Day seven predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Carl Fletcher
21:28 · THU December 21, 2023

The 2024 Paddy Power World Darts Championship continues at the Alexandra Palace with two sessions on Thursday so check out Carl Fletcher's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

Darts betting tips: World Championship day seven

1pt Littler to win 3-0 at 9/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Noppert to win the match and hit the most 180s at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt Clemens vs Leung to have over 15.5 legs, high checkout over 116.5 and over 7.5 180s at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt Zong to win +1.5 Sets at 9/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Woodhouse to win & hit the most 180s at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt De Decker to hit the most 180s (-2.5 handicap) at 5/6 (bet365)

SL Acca: Heta & Woodhouse to win, Cross -2.5 sets, & over 4.5 sets in Razma v De Decker at 15/2 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

http://media.paddypower.com/redirect.aspx?pid=13194133&bid=7330

Evening Session (1900 GMT)

  • TV Coverage: Sky Sports
  • Format: First round/second round, best of five sets

Andrew Gilding v Luke Littler (R2)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 93.56
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.18
  • Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 38.51% -
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 16.05% -
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 16.18% -

We all knew Luke Littler was special but I’m not sure we expected him to produce the performance he did in absolutely bossing his match against Christian Kist. The 16-year-old was like a seasoned Ally Pally veteran and is now being talked about as a potential winner.

Next up for him is 2023 UK Open winner Andrew Gilding and it’s hard to say that he’ll face a sterner test as Kist didn’t play badly, Littler was just outstanding. One thing that will be different is the pace of the methodical ‘Goldfinger’. Will that upset his rhythm? Littler suggested it wouldn’t and was in bullish mood in his post-match interview.

After Littler's 106.12 average, seven maximums and 50% doubles in his opening game, Gilding will have to be at his best to have any chance, especially if his opponent replicates yesterday’s standard. We know he can produce an amazing level himself but Gilding has only won three of his last 10 matches and the last person who averaged 106 against him, Danny Noppert, whitewashed him 6-0.

I’m going for Littler to demonstrate how special he is again and win this 3-0. What price will he shorten too then?

Score Prediction: 0-3

CLICK HERE to back Littler to win 3-0 with Sky Bet

Danny Noppert (1/3) v Scott Williams (9/4) (R2)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 94.23 - 91.26
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.25 - 0.25
  • Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 39.91% - 38.10%
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 11.73% - 13.18%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 24.09% - 17.05%

Danny Noppert is still relatively underrated when it comes to being talked about as a potential winner but he’s very capable. The 2022 UK Open champion showed as much when he reached the semi-finals of the European Championships in October, producing a remarkable comeback to defeat Gerwyn Price, this on the back of a quarter-final run in the Masters early in the year.

Such is his stock in the game these days Noppert was invited to play in three of the World Series events, coming through the opening game in each of them only to lose in the quarter-final of each tournament thereafter.

The Dutchman withdrew from the Players Championship Finals but was in good form prior to that, winning 11 of the 14 matches he played in November.

His opponent here is Scott Williams who was outstanding in 2022 and backed this up at last year's World Championship by averaging 100.32 to defeat Ryan Joyce in the first round before losing 3-1 to Rob Cross with a respectable 96.98 average.

2023 has been much more of a struggle for him and he hasn’t quite reached the heights he did just over 12 months ago. He’ll be pleased to have come through his first-round game against Haruki Muramatsu relatively easily, averaging 90.69.

These two have met three times this year and it is Noppert who has won two to Williams' one. On each occasion Noppert has hit the more 180s in the match and the match double appeals on that basis.

Score Prediction: 3-1

CLICK HERE to back Noppert to win and hit most 180s with Sky Bet

ALSO WATCH: HOW TO BECOME A DARTS PROFESSIONAL

Leading pundit and former major winner Paul Nicholson joins host Dom Newton and Sporting Life's darts expert Chris Hammer to discuss the 'darting pyramid', the importance of averages, how to crack Q School and other factors such as choosing sponsors, nicknames and walk-on music.

How to Become a Darts Professional!

Gabriel Clemens (1/3) v Man Lok Leung (9/4) (R2)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 93.93 - 82.55
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.26 - 0.12
  • Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 33.33% - 37.1% (Worlds R1)
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 8.58% - 8.48%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 21.67% - Unavailable

Until last night Man Lok Leung was arguably the standout performer as he fought back from 2-0 down to defeat Dutch sensation Gian Van Veen 3-2.

Despite trailing 2-0 he was still the better player early on and he peppered the red bit throughout, notching up 11 maximums across the five sets he played. He throws with a lovely, pacy action and the question is whether he can replicate that again here?

At the beginning of 2023 he played Luke Humphries in the Bahrain Masters and despite losing 6-3 he showed he can hold his own against anyone. His seasonal stats of the Asian Tour are somewhat different however and if he reverts to type then he could be in trouble.

He faces last years semi-finalist tonight and ‘The German Giant’ will be looking to replicate last year's standard as he grabbed the headlines back home. He took a while to kick on in 2023 and suffered a number of early exits in TV tournaments but put this behind him to recently reach the semis at Players Championship Finals, where he eventually lost 11-6 to MVG.

The bookmakers don’t appear to be taking any chances with the odds around Leung and I’m wary to go for anything on the match winner front. With two players capable of hitting a number of maximums I think a match action bet is a more sensible approach to adopt.

Score Prediction: 3-2

CLICK HERE to back match to have over 15.5 legs, a checkout over 116.5 and over 7.5 180s with Sky Bet

Damon Heta (4/11) v Martin Lukeman (2/1) (R2)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 94.48 - 92.25
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.28 - 0.19
  • Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 38.75% - 36.88%
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 13.74% - 11.26%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 25.00% - 15.79%

Thursday's action concludes with the Aussie number one in action. He takes on Martin Lukeman, who defeated Haupai Puha 3-1 on Monday night with a 92.03 average.

It’s been a much more testing campaign for Lukeman than last year but he revealed in his post-match interview that there have been other, more important things going on away from darts.

It was a professional display in beating his New Zealand opponent earlier this week but he only mustered up two 180s due to finding his range on this segment quite late in the game. You’d imagine he’ll have to up his level here if he’s to cause a shock.

After a couple of years where Heta struggled in TV events he has started to prove the doubters wrong. He's reached the last eight of the Matchplay, Grand Slam of Darts and the Players Championship Finals in 2023 and that in itself is no mean feat.

He’s been in winning form of late as 27 wins in his last 35 matches demonstrates. He’s maintained a good standard as his seasonal average of 94.48 suggests, and I think he’ll have too much consistency for Lukeman here. It should be over in four sets at the most.

Score Prediction: 3-1

Afternoon Session (1230 GMT)

  • TV Coverage: Sky Sports
  • Format: First round/second round, best of five sets

Mickey Mansell (1/6) v Xiaochen Zong (7/2) (R1)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 92.76 - 86.29
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.17 - 0.20
  • Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 39.80% - N/A
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 10.30% - 13.27%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 13.48% - Unavailable

After the success of the Asian representatives this week it feels that the bookmakers are taking no chances and the odds of Zong have certainly shortened over the last day or so.

Zong earned his place in the event through the China Premier League during which he had respectable statistics. His average was 86.29, he hit 180s at a rate of 0.20 per leg and 13.27% of his winning legs were won by virtue of a 100+ checkout. Whilst his average isn’t as high as Mansell (92.76) his 180 per leg ratio and 100+ checkout records are marginally superior.

Mansell is one of those players who is hard to predict. He’s averaged as high 106.42 this season and as low as 77.75. He ended the Players Championship series quite strongly reaching the semi-final of Players Championship 28 and the last 16 of the Players Championship 30. He also pushed Stephen Bunting in the recent Players Championship Finals before ultimately succumbing 6-4.

Zong appeared in the 2020 Worlds averaging 83.16 and pushing Kyle Anderson close as he lost 3-2. Mansell came through against Ben Robb in the opening round last year with an 89.13 average before averaging just 77.50 and being demolished by Peter Wright. I think Zong is a good player and will push him close here in a five-set tussle, so we'll take him on the set handicap.

Score Prediction: 3-2

CLICK HERE to back Zong (+1.5 Sets) to win with Sky Bet

Luke Woodhouse (4/11) v Berry van Peer (2/1) (R1)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 92.83 - 89.55
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.26 - 0.18
  • Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 38.79% - 22% (Grand Slam)
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 12.69% - 11.90%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 25.00% - Unavailable

The last time we saw Berry Van Peer on our TV screens was at the Grand Slam of Darts. During this he lost all three group games to Jonny Clayton, Chris Dobey and Josh Rock despite averaging higher than his opponent in each game.

He also exited the first round in seven of the last eight Players Championship events he played in during this year. There are some concerns over his form coming into this game which just didn’t appear quite as good as it was earlier in 2023.

The opposite is probably true of Woodhouse who’s enjoyed somewhat of a breakthrough season so far. He enjoyed a successful Pro Tour campaign reaching the final of a Players Championship event in the summer and a quarter-final of a Euro Tour event in September.

This culminated in him earning a spot in the Grand Prix where he accounted for Dave Chisnall in the opening round, then giving Luke Humphries a decent enough test in the second round. To cap off a memorable year he then proceeded to reach the quarter-finals of the Players Championship Finals defeating Simon Whitlock, Rob Cross and once again Chisnall before running into the ‘German Giant’.

I think he’ll have too much for Van Peer here to continue his good run and he’s the better maximum hitter too based on the per leg ratio season metric.

Score Prediction: 3-1

CLICK HERE to back Woodhouse to win and hit most 180s with Sky Bet

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Madars Razma (5/4) v Mike De Decker (4/7) (R2)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 90.48 - 93.40
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.13 - 0.31
  • Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 41.29% - 37.57%
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 12.62% - 9.95%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 11.96% - 23.08%

Latvian Madars Razma, the number 32 seed starts as the underdog in this one against Belgian Mike De Decker.

De Decker took a while to find his range against Dragutin Horvat but when he did, he started to find the red bit with ease and strolled to a 3-0 victory against the German with an average of 94.34. It was a solid display.

Razma is much more known to spray around the board and is the biggest hitter of 171-177 scores on Tour hitting 79 of those scores this year along with 113 maximums. In comparison De Decker has hit 345 180s during this years campaign.

Madars did play superbly at the European Championships recently and should’ve arguably accounted for MVG in the opening round, missing a match dart at double 20 in both the 10th and 11th legs of the match.

Razma has only won three of his last 17 matches in all competitions but that aforementioned match against van Gerwen was amongst these and his last four defeats have been with averages of 104.92, 99.00, 91.95 and 95.69 which suggests he isn’t playing that badly.

I think this match will go the distance and is a close game to call, the more legs played however, the more chance De Decker has of building a big lead on the maximum count.

Score Prediction: 3-2

CLICK HERE to back De Decker to hit most 180s (-2.5) with Sky Bet

READ OUR WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP GUIDE

Our free guide to the 2024 Paddy Power World Darts Championship is out now and includes expert insight, stats-based player profiles, the complete draw bracket, our best bets and more.

Scroll down to read our World Darts Championship guide

Rob Cross (1/12) v Thibault Tricole (6/1) (R2)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 96.38 - 87.90
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.23 - 0.14
  • Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 41.72% - 45.8% (Worlds R1)
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 13.58% - 8.41%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 26.17% - Unavailable

Frenchman Tricole defeated Mario Vandenbogaerde 3-1 in the opening round with an average of 85.21 but it wasn’t a great game and he needs to raise his standards significantly to trouble ‘Voltage’ here.

Cross, who became world champion on debut in this event in 2018, has been in scintillating form recently. During November he played 19 matches, winning 14 and finishing runner-up in the Grand Slam of Darts to Luke Humphries.

He suffered a shock defeat to Luke Woodhouse in the Players Championship Finals the last time we saw him but I’d imagine that’s just a blip overall. He’s played in every TV event except the Premier League this year and boasts a couple of wins on the World Series events down under and lost in the final of the Masters in January.

He should be a class above Tricole if his doubling doesn’t cause him any issues and he should book a place in the last 32 with relative ease.

Score Prediction: 3-0

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