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Luke Humphries (Picture: Kieran Cleeves/PDC)

PDC World Darts Championship 2024: Day 14 predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Carl Fletcher

Darts

Mon January 01, 2024 · 11M ago

The Paddy Power World Darts Championship continues on New Year's Day so check out Carl Fletcher's match-by-match predictions, best bets and suggested acca.

Darts betting tips: World Championship day 14

1pt Williams to hit the highest checkout in his match at 7/4 (Paddy Power)

1pt van Gerwen and Humphries both to average 100+ at 5/2 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

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EVENING SESSION

Luke Humphries (4/9) vs Dave Chisnall (13/8)

Three Dart Average (Tournament): 95.28 – 95.61
180s per leg (Tournament): 0.31 – 0.31
Checkout % (Tournament): 35.83% - 38.30%
100+ Checkout Per Leg Won (Tournament): 4.65% - 2.78%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout - Tournament): 0.00% - 0.00%

Humphries vs Cullen, which concluded the darting action in 2023, was without doubt the match of the tournament so far. Humphries trailed 2-0 in the deciding set before Cullen played one of the worst legs I’ve ever seen to close out a match on his own throw and then spurned two match darts in the following leg to miss a golden opportunity to oust the pre-tournament favourite.

In the end, Humphries just about kept his cool and for the second match running ground out the victory, this time courtesy of a 12-dart leg in the decider to advance. They say timing is everything and that was only the second leg won by him in the tournament within four visits. It was also a second 100 outshot in that final set, the only two ton-plus checkouts in the event for Cool Hand so far.

It’s now 16 consecutive victories for Humphries across all events and a winning habit is a good one to have. He doesn’t however have a winning habit against Chizzy this year, who has been his arch nemesis. It’s played five – all in finals – won one, lost four for Humphries.

In all five of these games both players have averaged 96-plus and there’s been 59 180s in the 67 legs of darts played. If this follows suit it could be an Ally Pally classic.

Chisnall is yet to face a stern test of his bottle, which Humphries has shown this in abundance. He’s won the World Grand Prix, Grand Slam of Darts and Players Championship Finals in recent months while Chizzy’s woes in majors have continued.

As in previous years, I’m expecting Chizzy to ultimately get dumped out here courtesy of a player producing an excellent performance against him, with the MVG-Humphries semi-final very much on the cards as Cool Hand ups his average to 100-plus.

Score Prediction: 5-3

Michael van Gerwen (1/10) vs Scott Williams (11/2)

Three Dart Average (Tournament): 99.94 – 93.15
180s per leg (Tournament): 0.42 – 0.31
Checkout % (Tournament): 52.38% - 46.88%
100+ Checkout Per Leg Won (Tournament): 9.09% - 22.22%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout - Tournament): 33.33% - 0.00%

Scott Williams is the surprise name left in the draw but this showman will revel in the atmosphere on the big stage and will actively encourage the crowd to get involved in the biggest game of his life against Michael van Gerwen.

It’s an impressive little four-match run for Shaggy, who started as underdog against Danny Noppert, Martin Schindler and Damon Heta. Key to this success has been his large checkouts. He’s amassed ten so far – the most in the event – which means that more than 20% of his legs won in this tournament have come via a 100-plus checkout. He’s not bad on the maximum count either, with 25 to his name.

MVG has looked imperious throughout and is yet to drop a set after victories over Keane Barry, Richard Veenstra and Stephen Bunting. The build-up for his latest game against Bunting suggested it could be a classic but van Gerwen was phenomenal and had Bunting on the back foot throughout. He’ll be hoping to inflict the same misery against Williams here and is priced to do so.

These two have met just once before, on the floor this year and on that occasion MVG won 6-2, hitting five maximums compared to zero from Williams although the latter did register the higher finish.

Overall though the signs look ominous for Williams, and I think the fun ends here. This game could have a big finish or two though as two of Williams' matches have already featured the Big Fish, another has seen a 161 checkout and one of van Gerwen’s games so far featured a 167.

Either man could deliver a high outshot and 7/4 Williams to produce the highest looks a touch too big, but MVG is expected to produce the sort of three-figure average which will have the underdog feeding on scraps.

CLICK HERE to back Williams highest checkout with Sky Bet

Score Prediction: 5-2

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WATCH NICHOLSON'S VERDICT ON LUKE LITTLER AND GARY ANDERSON

IS LUKE LITTLER THE NEXT PHIL TAYLOR AND WILL HE BE IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE?

AFTERNOON SESSION

1pt Dobey most 180s & each player 1+ checkout over 99 at 13/8 (William Hill)

1pt Littler to have 1+ 180 in every completed set at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

Chris Dobey (4/5) vs Rob Cross (10/11)

Three Dart Average (Tournament): 102.62 – 97.67
180s per leg (Tournament): 0.42 – 0.30
Checkout % (Tournament): 39.18% - 45.57%
100+ Checkout Per Leg Won (Tournament): 15.79% - 11.11%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout - Tournament): 33.33% - 100.00%

Three matches played and three 100+ averages for Chris Dobey in this event so far. He’s shown that he’s up for a battle with two hard fought victories over William O’Connor and Ross Smith but he’s also shown how clinical he can be with a 4-0 victory over the defending champion Michael Smith.

He’s a heavy scorer who’s hit 26 180s so far and comes into this having won his last four matches against Rob Cross, including in this event last year and en route to his Masters title in January.

Cross has had things a lot easier to reach this stage with straightforward successes against an inferior Thibault Tricole and an out of form Jonny Clayton. He was arguably pushed the most against Jeffrey De Graaf, whom he beat 4-2. What was pleasing about that victory was that it was his best performance of the event so far. He averaged 101.32, hit ten 180s and was over 50% on his doubles. If he needs to up it a level, it seems he can.

Cross knows all too well how good he needs to be. In his latest two defeats to Dobey he’s averaged 111 but still come out on the wrong end of the score line.

This has all the ingredients to be a cracker. On the evidence of what we’ve seen from both during this tournament I’m leaning towards Dobey to make it five consecutive victories and book a place in the semi-finals for the first time and it's worth leaning into his superior 180s ratio for a bet.

Score Prediction: 5-4

Luke Littler (1/6) vs Brendan Dolan (7/2)

Three Dart Average (Tournament): 99.73 – 94.94
180s per leg (Tournament): 0.41 – 0.10
Checkout % (Tournament): 42.99% - 43.30%
100+ Checkout Per Leg Won (Tournament): 10.87% - 14.29%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout - Tournament): 50.00% - 0.00%

Brendan Dolan will have no fear in this game after eliminating two huge superstars in Gerwyn Price and Gary Anderson already. Next up for him is the generational talent that is Luke Littler and once again he starts the clear outsider.

That was also the case in the Matchplay when he claimed the scalp of MVG in the opening round and the way he’s played throughout this tournament, averaging around the mid-90s mark, he is going to test the resolve of the 16-year-old.

Dolan looked in trouble against Anderson, trailing 3-2 and against the throw in the sixth set but he upped it a notch and averaged 108.85 in that set to put him back in control. You don’t have to be the best player throughout the match in set play, you just have to do the right things at the right time, and he's done that so far.

Teenage sensation Littler beat his idol Raymond Van Barneveld 4-1 in the previous round with an average of 105.01, against a Barneveld average of almost a hundred. Littler leads the way on the maximum count so far with 29 in total, hitting 7, 5, 8 and 9 in his four matches he’s played, and it's no wonder the sporting world is talking about him.

We know Littler is going to be the higher scorer of the two and if he can avoid the mistakes Anderson did and get off to a quick start he can take control of this match early on rather than become embroiled in a battle. Take him to win with at least a couple of sets to spare.

He’s also hit a 180 in all sets he’s played apart from one in this years event, and the 3/1 on him doing so here looks generous.