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Brendan Dolan and Gerwyn Price

PDC World Darts Championship 2024: Day 11 predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Thu December 28, 2023 · 11M ago

The Paddy Power World Darts Championship continues on Thursday with another double session so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and suggested acca.

Darts betting tips: World Championship day 11

1pt Stephen Bunting to win, hit most 180s and have highest checkout at 7/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Ross Smith to win and hit most 180s at 2/1 (Paddy Power)

1pt over 17.5 180s and 3+ 100+ checkouts in Smith v Dobey at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt Price v Dolan to have over 20.5 legs, highest checkout to be over 121.5 and over 8.5 total 180s at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt Gurney to beat Ricky Evans and hit most 180s at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

SL Acca: Bunting (-2.5), Smith & Gurney all to win plus over 4.5 sets in Price v Dolan at 6/1 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

http://media.paddypower.com/redirect.aspx?pid=13194133&bid=7330

AFTERNOON SESSION

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1200 GMT
Format: Third round, best of seven sets

Florian Hempel (7/2) v Stephen Bunting (1/6)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 89.35 – 95.79
180s per leg (2023): 0.22 – 0.29
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 39.80% - 38.88%
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 10.25% - 11.66%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180’s & High Checkout): 15.07% - 27.04%

Statistically, Stephen Bunting produced the performance of the World Championship so far when he eclipsed Luke Littler's average of 106.12 with an effort of 107.28 against Ryan Joyce and and it really summed up just why he's a genuine dark horse for the title.

The unlikely social media star, whose cult hero status is growing by the day, has been banging in 100+ averages on a regular basis in the latter part of the season and we've seen his belief growing with every passing match and tournament. Maybe this is the time he finally fulfils the potential that Raymond van Barneveld famously hyped up on this stage many years ago.

From a comeback perspective, Florian Hempel eclipsed everyone with his astounding fightback against Dimitri Van den Bergh when he trailed 2-0 in sets and legs - but on this occasion I can see him facing a similar fate and failing meekly to get out of it.

There is such a gulf in class with form and ability whereas his previous opponent had endured a very below-par season by his standard.

I think it'll be one-sided so backing high numbers of 180s and checkouts might not be the wisest of plays while -2.5 sets on the handicap is still odds-on. Instead I'll go for Bunting to bring up the Match Treble - which he's done on 27% of occasions this season. For context, that's the eighth highest percentage in 2023, with Gerwyn Price managing the highest with 37.71%.

Bunting has a significantly higher 180 per leg rate than Hempel and if he wins the vast majority of legs, the high checkout would be likely.

Scoreline Prediction: 0-4

CLICK HERE to back Stephen Bunting to win, hit most 180s and have highest checkout with Sky Bet

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Joe Cullen (1/1) v Ryan Searle (8/11)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 94.44 - 95.35
180s per leg (2023): 0.32 - 0.26
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 37.58% - 36.80%
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 12.81% - 12.48%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180’s & High Checkout): 33.05% - 23.48%

Surprisingly this is the first time the Rockstar and Heavy Metal have performed together on live TV so hopefully they'll put on a great show worthy of an headline act.

Joe Cullen may not have enjoyed his best season when it comes to his seasonal average (94.44) and title count (0) - which are both fewer than Ryan Searle - but he did reach two major semi-finals at the World Matchplay and World Grand Prix so most other players would have been happy with his results in 2023.

Although he'd been producing a worrying amount of 80 averages in the past couple of months - six in his last nine performances before arriving at the Ally Pally - he did look solid against Darren Penhall and fired in six 180s in just 13 legs.

Searle wasn't impressed with his display against Tomoya Goto, averaging 91.11 but he was smashing in averages close to - or exceeding 100 - throughout November.

It's a tough one to call with much conviction - apart from Cullen hitting most maximums.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-2

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Ross Smith (5/6) v Chris Dobey (5/6)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 96.14 - 96.06
180s per leg (2023): 0.37 - 0.31
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 37.93% - 38.46 %
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 9.07% - 12.55%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180’s & High Checkout): 28.28% - 22.88%

Ross Smith was involved in a record-breaking third-round clash with Dirk van Duijvenbode this time last last year when 31 180s were scored and although that won't be eclipsed today, there will be plenty of maximums for the crowd to cheer.

Smudger is the most prolific 180 hitter left in the tournament and warmed up with seven in in 17 legs during his first win, while Chris Dobey fired 10 in just 20 legs against William O'Connor.

Smith is my pre-tournament fancy to win this quarter of the draw and I'm sticking with that despite how impressive Dobey looked last time out, averaging 103.09, although it will probably be a thrillingly close battle to keep us all on the edge of our seats.

You can keep it simple by focusing on lofty levels of 180s scored but I'll also throw in a cluster of 100+ checkouts to boost the odds considering how many legs we could see.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-2

CLICK HERE to back Ross Smith to win and hit most 180s with Sky Bet

CLICK HERE over 17.5 180s and 3+ 100+ checkouts in Smith v Dobey with Sky Bet

EVENING SESSION

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1900 GMT
Format: Third round, best of seven sets

Gerwyn Price (1/8) v Brendan Dolan (9/2)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 98.80 - 92.48
180s per leg (2023): 0.33 - 0.15
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 41.05% - 41.11%
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 13.06% - 9.98%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180’s & High Checkout): 37.71% - 13.53%

Gerwyn Price's heart would have sank a little bit when Brendan Dolan edged out Mickey Mansell in an unlikely second-round classic and this one has the potential to be an arduous challenge for the Iceman.

Dolan took Price too a nerve-jangling last-leg decider in this round back in the 2021 edition - and that's when there were no crowds to influence the outcome - while the following season he sprung a surprise by defeating him 10-8 in the Players Championship Finals.

The Northern Irishman's slow style doesn't suit the Iceman - plus he averaged a very respectable 95 last time out - and while he really should have enough quality to battle through, there could well be more legs and sets than you'd expect and that may aid a surprisingly high 180 count and chances of a high checkout.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-2

CLICK HERE to back over 20.5 legs, highest checkout to be over 121.5 and over 8.5 total 180s with Sky Bet

Luke Humphries (1/7) v Ricardo Pietreczko (4/1)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 98.59 – 93.91
180s per leg (2023): 0.33 – 0.20
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 41.52% - 40.84%
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 10.60 % - 13.98%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180’s & High Checkout): 27.88% - 16.39%

Luke Humphries isn't the most famous Luke in darts anymore despite heading into the tournament as favourite, so this is an ideal opportunity to remind everyone that he really is the man to beat.

Since Cool Hand got off to a luke warm start against Lee Evans on December 17 with a below-par average of 93.58, Luke Littler has stolen the show with three stunningly impressive victories to launch himself into the title reckoning.

Humphries must raise his game against the dangerous Ricardo Pietreczko, who won a European Tour event back in October and regularly posted 100+ averages for the rest of the campaign, but I have every confidence he'll do just that.

Pietreczko did average 99.27 in a fine 3-2 victory over Callan Rydz so don't expect Humphries to have it all his own way and while the Englishman will dominate the 180 count, expect his opponent to lead the 100+ checkout count considering he wins almost 14% of his legs that way - one of the highest percentages on tour.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-2

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Ricky Evans (6/4) v Daryl Gurney (1/2)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 93.11 – 95.07
180s per leg (2023): 0.24 – 0.24
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 33.63% - 38.55%
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 11.43% - 11.07 %
Match Treble % (Win, most 180’s & High Checkout): 15.96% - 24.29%

The Daryl Gurney of old turned up to end the Steve Beaton's 33rd World Championship appearance and I expect to see a similar performance to round off the night.

Super Chin averaged 100.79 and threw eight 180s (0.47 per leg) which is more like the levels we used to expect from him while Evans has compiled the same maximum count across two matches (0.36 per leg).

One of those was a sublime performance against Nathan Aspinall when he averaged 99 and afterwards he bullishly talked up his ability and his chances of a lengthy run at the Ally Pally, where he's never gone beyond the third round. His personality is clearly more suited to the stage than the quiet floor events but it'll take more than one superb win to convince anyone he has what it takes to regularly produce high end darts at this level.

Gurney has won their last six meetings, including twice this year, so I'm backing him to make it seven and fire in most maximums.

Scoreline Prediction: 1-4