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Luke Humphries and Gerwyn Price

PDC World Darts Championship 2024: Betting tips, preview and predictions for the Sky Sports-televised major at the Ally Pally

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Tue December 19, 2023 · 1y ago

The 2024 Paddy Power World Darts Championship takes place at the Alexandra Palace from December 15-January 3, live on Sky Sports, and our tipster Chris Hammer brings you his preview and best bets.

Darts betting tips: World Championship

4pts Luke Humphries to win the World Championship at 100/30 (Paddy Power)

1pt Ross Smith to win the first quarter at 9/1 (General)

1pt Josh Rock to win the third quarter at 13/2 (General)

1pt Gerwyn Price and Luke Humphries both to win their quarters at 17/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

0.5pt Ross Smith, Gerwyn Price, Josh Rock and Luke Humphries all to win their quarters at 400/1 (Paddy Power)

0.5pt e.w. Dave Chisnall to win the World Championship at 50/1 (Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4)

1pt Ross Smith to hit most tournament 180s at 33/1 (BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

http://media.paddypower.com/redirect.aspx?pid=13194133&bid=7330

All ready for Dartmas?

The last thing on my checklist is publishing these World Championship betting tips but if you've already watched our preview show – or read Sporting Life's tournament guide – then you will already have an idea where my head is at ahead of this year's Ally Pally extravaganza which promises us to three weeks of drama, tension, fairytale runs and shocks.

I have had a rethink about one particular player I didn't flag up since the show was record back on December 1 but if you backed anyone based on something I've already said, I've certainly not changed by mind.

READ OUR WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP GUIDE

Our free guide to the 2024 Paddy Power World Darts Championship is out now and includes expert insight, stats-based player profiles, the complete draw bracket, our best bets and more.

In some ways you could argue this year's World Championship is as wide open as usual given 23 players have picked up titles this season while there have been six different major champions – as you'll see from the list further down.

However, I'm struggling to see anyone other than the 'big three' in the betting getting their hands on the Sid Waddell Trophy on January 3 because quite frankly they tick all the key boxes necessary to do so: great form, seasonal consistency, major-winning calibre, mentally strong in long-format darts, Ally Pally prowess and the ability to hit 100+ averages regularly at the highest levels.

Although it's often said there's too much importance placed on averages, in this day and age, world champions reach or exceed that three-figure mark in most of their matches. And their 'B games' are the majority of the field's A game when it comes to these lengthy contests on the Ally Pally stage.

Michael Smith was certainly ticking every box last year which is why I backed him but his form and consistency just haven't been there in 2023 and he'll need to have to put in a lot more work over the past couple of weeks if he's to successfully defend his crown.

Gary Anderson ticks all the seasonal-stats boxes after a wonderful and resurgent 2023 while historically he clearly ticks the others. It's no wonder he'll be well fancied to win his third world title but he admitted his age and declining mental stamina were crucial in his defeat to Luke Humphries in the Grand Slam quarter-finals and I just feel the Flying Scotsman will run out of steam again after Christmas.

Title winners this season

Click here for a full list of events, results & winners

6: Luke Humphries (including Grand Slam, World Grand Prix, Players Championship Finals), Michael van Gerwen (including Premier League, World Series Finals) & Gerwyn Price
5: Dave Chisnall
4: Rob Cross
3: Peter Wright (including European Championship), Michael Smith, Gary Anderson & Dirk van Duijvenbode
2: Jonny Clayton, Damon Heta, Danny Noppert, Ross Smith, Krzysztof Ratajski
1: Chris Dobey (Masters) Nathan Aspinall (World Grand Prix), Andrew Gilding (UK Open), Ryan Searle, Kim Huybrechts, Ryan Joyce, Radek Szaganski, Ricardo Pietreczko, Callan Rydz

Ultimately I believe the player with the strongest claim for glory out of LUKE HUMPHRIES, Michael van Gerwen and Gerwyn Price is the one who just can't stop winning majors right now.

CLICK HERE to back Luke Humphries to win the title with Sky Bet

Aside from the phenomenally consistent performance levels that Humphries delivers in any type of tournament and format, much has been made of Cool Hand's ever growing mental strength and darts fitness over the past couple of years.

Whereas in the past his head would drop during tough times and the pressure would make him buckle, it now seems he has a psychological edge over everyone else on the circuit.

Just look how he brushed Price aside in the World Grand Prix final, defied Anderson's brilliance in the Grand Slam and how he chased down MVG in the closing stages of the recent Players Championship Finals. He's got it all.

One other key factor in his favour is that he clearly enjoys playing at the Ally Pally.

Even before he made his name in the senior ranks – and, significantly, before he'd sorted out those worrying psychological issues – he managed to reach no fewer than three quarter-finals here. Then last year he managed to battle through to the fourth round despite being very ill before and during the tournament.

Imagine the damage he can do now he's in this state of mind?

Top seasonal averages in all competitions

As far as the title is concerned, I do also want to chuck a big-priced outsider into the mix and there is an element of my heart getting involved here.

However, this player has chalked up more titles than anyone outside the aforementioned 'big three' in 2023 and from that perspective it's one of his best ever seasons.

Although he's in Humphries' quarter of the draw, he's actually one of the few players who knows how to take down Cool Hand when it matters this year. They've met in five finals in the 2023 and the tournament favourite's nemesis has won four of them, including three on the stage environment of the European Tour.

Average-wise he's among the top 10 this season and we've all seen him produce potential major-winning performances down the years. The problem is, he's still waiting for his first.

Yes, you've guessed it, I'm having one last roll of the dice on DAVE CHISNALL at 50/1, preferring to do so with a bookmaker offering each-way payouts for those reaching the semi-finals.

CLICK HERE to back Dave Chisnall to win the title with Sky Bet

Now I've staked my title claims, I’ll next work my way through each quarter of the draw in search of value in other markets…

ALSO WATCH: WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS

Chris Hammer joined darts presenter Abigail Davies and commentator Paul Nicholson to guide you through each quarter the 96-player draw in our special preview show which you can watch here.

Predicting the PDC World Darts Championship 2024!

QUARTER ONE

(1) Michael Smith v Kevin Doets/Stowe Buntz
(32) Madars Razma v Mike De Decker/Dragutin Horvat
(16) Ross Smith v Niels Zonneveld/Darren Webster
(17) Chris Dobey v William O'Connor/Bhav Patel
(8) Rob Cross v Mario Vandenbogaerde/Thibault Tricole
(25) Jose de Sousa v Ritchie Edhouse/Jeffrey de Graaf
(9) Jonny Clayton v Steven Lennon/Owen Bates
(24) Krzysztof Ratajski v Jamie Hughes/David Cameron

Odds to win the quarter: Cross 11/4, M Smith 3/1, Clayton 8/1, Dobey 8/1, R Smith 9/1, Ratajski 20/1, De Sousa 22/1, 66/1 bar

Rob Cross will be the most popular pick to come through this quarter after a stellar season featuring four titles including two on the televised World Series tour, but I'm going for a Smith to prevail.

It's not, however, the defending champion for reasons mentioned earlier. Instead I'm going for ROSS SMITH, who has produced some great numbers over the past couple of months.

Smudger has been averaging around 100 across 34 matches in October and November but his absence from the Grand Slam of Darts and a second-round exit at the Players Championship Finals means he's somewhat going under the radar.

However he averaged 104 in that latter defeat and was extremely unfortunate to come up against MVG, who managed an eye-watering 118!

CLICK HERE to back Ross Smith to win the first quarter with Sky Bet

I'm not sure he'd have what it takes to go two steps further and win this title but he does have a genuine chance of lifting the inaugural Ballon d'Art for hitting the most 180s if he reaches the semi-finals.

Admittedly in the last 10 years – and probably much further back – the winner of this accolade always reaches the final, even if they finish runner-up. However, 12 months ago he only played two matches (54 legs combined) and managed to hit 29 maximums (0.53 per leg), which was only 37 fewer than Michael Smith, who played seven matches (178 legs combined).

Ross Smith fires in 180s more prolifically than anyone apart from Dirk van Duijvenbode, who won't be challenging for this honour due to his injury problems, so I feel he's worth a speculative punt.

CLICK HERE to back Ross Smith to hit most tournament 180s with Sky Bet

The most prolific 180 hitters this season

QUARTER TWO

(4) Peter Wright v Jim Williams/Norman Madhoo
(29) Raymond van Barneveld v Radek Szaganski/Marko Kantele
(13) James Wade v Matt Campbell/Lourence Ilagan
(20) Andrew Gilding v Christian Kist/Luke Littler
(5) Gerwyn Price v Connor Scutt/Krzysztof Kciuk
(28) Brendan Dolan v Mickey Mansell/Xiaochen Zong
(12) Dirk van Duijvenbode v Keegan Brown/Boris Krcmar
(21) Gary Anderson v Simon Whitlock/Paolo Nebrida

Odds to win the quarter: Price 7/4, Anderson 4/1, Wright 11/2, Wade 9/1, Littler 18/1, DVD 25/1, Van Barneveld 28/1, Gilding 33/1, 40/1 bar

Without wanting to be disrespectful to anyone else in this quarter, I think it pretty much all boils down to whoever wins between GERWYN PRICE and Gary Anderson in the fourth round.

If that dream encounter does materialise, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Price's ear defenders make an appearance when you consider just how one-sided the crowd will be that night. It'll be insanely raucous and the Iceman will need to show incredible focus not to let the fans put him off his game like what happened against Gabriel Clemens 12 months ago.

On the flip side, Anderson might want it 'too much' and it'll also be hard for him in that kind of atmosphere. Just think of what happened in 'that' Grand Slam of Darts final and that's when the Flying Scotsman was at the peak of his powers and able to maintain his high standards for long format darts.

I'm giving the edge to Price and if he can overcome that particular hurdle, then I'd fancy him to go all the way to the final.

He may not have won any televised titles this year but he has picked up plenty of other honours and his performance levels have been extremely consistent throughout the season.

CLICK HERE to back Gerwyn Price and Luke Humphries to win their quarters with Sky Bet

QUARTER THREE

(2) Michael van Gerwen v Keane Barry/Reynaldo Rivera
(31) Kim Huybrechts v Richard Veenstra/Ben Robb
(15) Dimitri Van den Bergh v Dylan Slevin/Florian Hempel
(18) Stephen Bunting v Ryan Joyce/Alex Spellman
(7) Danny Noppert v Scott Williams/Haruki Muramatsu
(26) Martin Schindler v Jermaine Wattimena/Fallon Sherrock
(10) Damon Heta v Martin Lukeman/Haupai Puha
(23) Josh Rock v Luke Woodhouse/Berry van Peer

Odds to win the quarter: MVG 11/8, Rock 13/2, Noppert 9/1, Bunting 9/1, Heta 12/1, VDB 14/1, Schindler 28/1, 50/1 bar

Michael van Gerwen is understandably the clear favourite here but as I said on the preview show, I fancy Stephen Bunting to take him out in round four.

The Bullet, who was also selected as the quarter winner by Abigail Davies, has been inspired form in recent months and really should have defeated MVG in the Players Championship Finals only to let slip a commanding lead.

Paul Nicholson backs MVG for World Darts' glory

Bunting has reached the semi-finals and quarter-finals here in two of the last three seasons so he clearly loves this venue and is becoming more and more popular with every passing major tournament.

MVG's overall consistency is fantastic but we do see more and more of these 'C game' displays in the majors these days and there's a growing number of players such as Bunting who don't need to be at their best to make him pay.

Such a victory will leave the door open for players in the bottom section of this draw – most notably my tip JOSH ROCK at a tempting 13/2.

The Northern Irishman was one of the most hyped up players heading into last year's World Championship but a relatively quiet 2023 meant he kept a low profile until a morale-boosting run to the Grand Slam of Darts quarter-finals.

He hadn't won a match on TV all year before that tournament but his average in all competitions this season was still among the top six and he still managed to reach five finals evenly spread across the calendar, including one on the European Tour.

The manner of his defeat to James Wade in the Grand Slam would have hurt but he swiftly bounced back at the recent Players Championship Finals, where he bizarrely lost a second-round match to Gabriel Clemens despite averaging 114!

Rock will be happy with his draw and even if he does face MVG in the quarter-finals, he'd still have more than a fighting chance.

CLICK HERE to back Josh Rock to win the third quarter with Sky Bet

QUARTER FOUR

(3) Luke Humphries v Lee Evans/Sandro Eric Sosing
(30) Callan Rydz v Ricardo Pietreczko/Mikuru Suzuki
(14) Joe Cullen v Jules van Dongen/Darren Penhall
(19) Ryan Searle v Ian White/Tomoya Goto
(6) Nathan Aspinall v Ricky Evans/Simon Adams
(27) Daryl Gurney v Steve Beaton/Wessel Nijman
(11) Dave Chisnall v Cameron Menzies/Rusty-Jake Rodriguez
(22) Gabriel Clemens v Gian van Veen/Man Lok Leung

Odds to win the quarter: Humphries 8/11, Aspinall 13/2, Chisnall 9/1, Cullen 14/1, Searle 16/1, Van Veen 16/1, Gurney 33/1, Clemens 33/1, 50/1 bar

There's nothing more I need to say about LUKE HUMPHRIES and Dave Chisnall, who I expect to be meeting in the quarter-finals.

Ryan Searle is clearly the biggest danger for Cool Hand in the top section while rising star Gian van Veen will pose problems for Chizzy in round three should he get past last year's semi-finalist Gabriel Clemens.

It's hard to know what to expect from Nathan Aspinall given how much rest he takes these days but the World Matchplay champion does seem to enjoy being written off so won't mind me glossing over his chances this year.