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Jonny Clayton (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)

PDC World Darts Championship 2023: Day 12 predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Thu December 29, 2022 · 2y ago

The third round of the Cazoo World Darts Championship concludes and the fourth begins on Thursday so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

As soon as the 16th spot in the fourth round is sealed this evening, the attention immediately turns to the players vying to earn their quarter-final places.

Here we preview all six matches spanning two sessions and two rounds...

Darts betting tips: World Championship day 12

1pt Luke Humphries to win, hit most 180s and the highest checkout at 6/4 (Paddy Power)

1pt Jonny Clayton to beat Josh Rock at 11/10 (General)

1pt three or more 180s in every set of van Duijvenbode v Smith at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Chisnall to win and hit most 180s at 5/4 (Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World Championship: Thursday, December 29

EVENING SESSION

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1900 GMT
Round and Format: Round 3/4 (Best of seven sets)
Statistics: The below stats are from this year's World Championship but the ones in brackets (courtesy of @CarlyFletch and his @DartsTracker) are their seasonal data. The averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only.

Luke Humphries (1/5) v Vincent van der Voort (5/2)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 2-0 (1-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average: 90.95 (97.57) - 90.78 (91.28)
180s per leg (2022): 0.37 (0.32) - 0.08 (0.21)
Checkout %: 29.27% (40.05) - 56.25% (41.97)
100+ checkout per leg won: 0% (12.27) - 11.11% (10.25)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 100% (31.21) - 0% (11.32)

Luke Humphries remains one of the leading contenders for World Championship glory despite the topsy-turvy nature of his 3-2 victory over Florian Hempel in which he had to come back from 1-0 and 2-1 down.

He scored impressively enough with seven 180s and 14 scores of 140+ but his sloppy doubling of just 29% contributed to his average looking a rather mediocre 91.

Vincent van der Voort was probably expecting a tougher test against Cameron Menzies than he ended up getting and only needed a 91 average to brush aside the inconsistent Scot for the loss of just three legs.

The veteran Dutchman's key to success was his finishing of over 56% rather than his scoring but he will need to improve on the latter if he's to give Humphries a run for his money.

However, van der Voort's scoring and 180 per leg stats are vastly inferior to the bar Humphries has set for much of the season and it's fair to expect Cool Hand's doubling to be much better this evening.

The Newbury may not have managed a 100+ checkout against Hempel but he does tend to hit them more regularly than most this season and if he wins the majority of legs tonight then I'd expect him to have a higher finish than van der Voort as well as most 180s.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-1

CLICK HERE to back Humphries to win, hit most 180s and have highest checkout with Sky Bet

Gerwyn Price (2/7) v Jose de Sousa (5/2)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 3-4 (1-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (1-0)
Three-Dart Average: 93.29 (97.44) - 88.75 (94.75)
180s per leg (2022): 0.24 (0.28) - 0.27 (0.31)
Checkout %: 36.07% (40.71) - 30.52% (36.58)
100+ checkout per leg won: 14.28% (14.98) - 10.34% (12.40)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 50% (24.67) - 0% (28.93)

Jose de Sousa probably can't believe he's still in the World Championship having twice looked dead and buried against both Simon Whitlock and Ryan Searle.

But after overturning a 2-0 deficit to beat the Wizard 3-2, he then conjured up an even more remarkable comeback from 3-0 down to defeat Searle, who also spurned a match dart when leading 3-1.

The Special One didn't need to average particularly highly to win those matches but against Searle he finally began to find his usual 180-hitting rhythm with nine to help counteract the damage caused by missing 43 of his 59 darts at doubles.

If he gets off to another slow start against Gerwyn Price and finishes that badly then they'll be no comeback this time.

The Iceman ended his winless record against Raymond van Barneveld on TV in style by thrashing the Dutchman 4-0 although his average of 93.68 won't exactly strike fear into his rivals. He just did what he needed to do.

Price hit six 180s in 17 legs (0.35 per leg) in that particular contest to show he's more than capable of challenging de Sousa in the maximum market while he also weighed in with a couple of 100+ checkouts to take his tournament tally to three - the same as tonight's opponent.

Their only other televised meeting was the World Matchplay back in July when Price edged it 16-14, with both players firing in nine maximums and each having a 160 checkout.

I do feel Price will do enough to come through this test but it's hard to predict how difficult de Sousa will make it.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-2

Jonny Clayton (11/10) v Josh Rock (8/11) (R4)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average: 95.64 (96.73) - 94.35 (97.75)
180s per leg (2022): 0.30 (0.23) - 0.30 (0.30)
Checkout %: 48.94% (40.90) - 41.77% (40.51)
100+ checkout per leg won: 4.34% (14.06) - 6.06% (12.52)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 100% (12.87) - 33% (26.92)

Josh Rock may have the least experience out of anyone left in the World Championship but you wouldn't be able to tell judging by the way he's reached round four on his Ally Pally debut.

After dealing with the wily and awkward Jose Justicia 3-1 and fellow rising star Callan Rydz 3-0, he underlined just what a special talent he is by showing nerves of steal to overcome one of the game's best fighters in the deciding set of a thriller.

Nathan Aspinall looked to have wrestled back momentum when levelling the match at 3-3 when taking the sixth set 3-0 but Rock bounced back to move 2-1 up in the decider before taking out a nervy 70 finish after his opponent had spurned three darts at a double.

The 21-year-old from Northern Ireland fired in 13 of the 25 maximums in the match (0.45 per leg) and averaged 96 which brings his tournament stats much closer to what he's produced throughout the season so you've got many reason to believe he's about to kick on and find another gear.

However, there's a certain Jonny Clayton standing in his way and the Ferret will probably be feeling a little insulted (albeit very secretly given the gentleman that he is) to be priced up as the underdog.

Sure, he's not enjoyed anywhere near the same success as he did in 2021 but Clayton's first two performances here suggested he's rediscovering his range and levels that helped him dominate the Premier League regular season.

Not only is his average an impressive 95.64 over two matches but he's weighed in with 11 maximums (0.30 per leg) and pinned 48.94 of his doubles. That's bound to give him confidence after a lean spell of form although his seasonal average of 96.73 still ranks him among the best performers despite his only title being the New South Wales Darts Masters.

If Rock wins this one then you'd have to fancy him to go on and win this quarter of the draw but Clayton shouldn't be underestimated.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-2

CLICK HERE to back Clayton to win with Sky Bet

AFTERNOON SESSION

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1230 GMT
Round and Format: Round 3 (Best of seven sets)
Statistics: The below stats are from this year's World Championship but the ones in brackets (courtesy of @CarlyFletch and his @DartsTracker) are their seasonal data. The averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only.

Dirk van Duijvenbode (4/6) v Ross Smith (11/10)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 3-2 (1-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average: 95.18 (97.26) - 100.97 (94.10)
180s per leg (2022): 0.52 (0.38) - 0.55 (0.34)
Checkout %: 30.95% (40.20) - 57.89% (38.83)
100+ checkout per leg won: 0% (10.84) - 0% (11.11)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 0% (35.81) - 0% (26.17)

It's a crying shame this battle between two 180 machines isn't headlining an evening session but it'll certainly get the afternoon crowd in full voice at the start of what promises to be another thrilling day.

Dirk van Duijvenbode and Ross Smith are two of the most prolific maximum hitters around, with Aubergenius boasting the highest 180 per leg ratio this season at 0.38 while the European champion is comfortably in the top five at 0.34. However, over the past six months, Smith is flying at 0.38 with DVD just behind at 0.37 and that's why the Englishman is marginal favourite to hit most 180s today.

They emphatically underlined their reputations in the previous round as van Duijvenbode fired in 12 in 23 legs during a thrilling 3-2 victory over Karel Sedlacek while Smith crashed in 10 in just 18 legs against Darius Labanauskas.

There's no guarantee in darts but surely we can expect lots more 180s?!

If they can carry on like that in a relatively close game then the record for most maximums in a best-of-seven set match - which is currently 29 in the match between Rob Cross and Michael Smith at the 2018 World Championship - will be obliterated but it perhaps won't be as simple as that.

Expectations and pressure in a match both will be desperate to win could take it's toll and who's to say it won't be a one-sided 4-0 or 4-1 scoreline when one of them just doesn't get going.

They met at this stage last year when van Duijvenbode astonishingly came from 3-0 down to win 4-3 but on that day Smith only managed to hit two of the 12 maximums in the match.

He's obviously turned into a much more dangerous player since then and it's now as hard to predict who will win the 180 battle as much as the winner of the tie. They've both had superb seasons, boast two of the highest seasonal averages on the circuit and will have genuine title ambitions here.

Sky Bet are offering a Price Boost of 3/1 on both players to hit 10+ maximums each and obviously they'll easily attain that if they can both reproduce the similar kind of fireworks we saw in the last round and there's at least 20 legs. However we might need all seven sets to be pretty close if either are nearer their seasonal ratios.

It's 11/10 for over 20 maximums with the same bookie which is obviously the safer option while you can get 7/4 for both players to hit a 180 in each completed set or 3/1 for three or more overall in every set. The latter two options are favourite if you expect a one-sided battle where one player doesn't find his range to his usual levels.

Scoreline Prediction: 2-4

CLICK HERE to back three 180s in each set with Sky Bet

Rob Cross (2/9) v Mervyn King (3/1)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 5-5 (2-2)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average: 99.32 (96.58) - 93.74 (91.58)
180s per leg (2022): 0.35 (0.26) - 0.22 (0.21)
Checkout %: 57.89% (37.92) - 37.50% (38.06)
100+ checkout per leg won: 9.09% (13.13) - 8.33% (11.54)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 0% (21.57) - 100% (18.75)

Rob Cross looked every bit of a World Championship contender during his classy 3-1 victory over Scott Williams in which he averaged 99.32, threw seven 180s and pinned 57.89% of his doubles.

Voltage's performance was hardly a bolt from the blue either considering how well he's played this season and headed to the Ally Pally on the back of reaching the climax of the Players Championship Finals, where he found Michael van Gerwen just a bit too hot to handle.

A similar display from Cross should be more than enough to see off Mervyn King, who has endured a very difficult season and isn't producing the kind of levels that helped him reach a couple of major finals between November 2020 and January 2021.

The King's 3-2 battling victory over Danny Baggish in the previous round with an average of 94 will have given his confidence a lift but it's hard to expect him to challenge the scoring power and finishing of an in-form Cross.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-1

Dave Chisnall (4/11) v Stephen Bunting (2/1)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 12-8 (6-3)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 2-0 (2-0)
Three-Dart Average: 97.87 (96.50) - 91.35 (94.85)
180s per leg (2022): 0.44 (0.35) - 0.41 (0.29)
Checkout %: 32.14% (39.25) - 24.44% (34.04)
100+ checkout per leg won: 0% (10.83) - 18.18% (11.94)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 0% (27.65) - 100% (26.36)

It's another edition of a friendly St Helens rivalry that has been bossed by Dave Chisnall in recent times, with Chizzy winning his last eight encounters with Stephen Bunting dating back to 2018.

He's also thrashed the Bullet 6-0 in both of their televised meetings in 2022 - the season-opening Masters and October's European Championship - so it's fair to say he has the mental edge ahead of their first World Championship clash.

Chisnall also boasts the superior seasonal statistics in all major departments and produced a much better performance than Bunting in their respective first-round games, even though he was pushed hard by the impressive Andrew Gilding.

One area Bunting is slightly stronger on is his rate of 100+ checkouts and he even managed two out of his 11 winning legs against Leonard Gates - even though he otherwise struggled on his doubles throughout the contest.

He rattled in the 180s at a rate (0.41 per leg) similar to what Chisnall achieved against Gilding (0.44) while his seasonal rate of 0.29 is actually very healthy compared to most players aside from those maximum machines like Chizzy.

That said I still think Chisnall can win and hit most 180s but if you want to be a bit bolder then you can also throw in Bunting to fire in the highest checkout in an alternative treble at around 9/2 in places.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-2