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PDC World Darts Championship 2023: Day 11 predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Carl Fletcher

Darts

Wed December 28, 2022 · 2y ago

The third round of the Cazoo World Darts Championship continues on Wednesday so check out Carl Fletcher's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

Two of tournament favourites in Michael Van Gerwen and Michael Smith headline the action but there’s a plethora of big names on display at Ally Pally.

Here we preview all six matches across two sessions...

Darts betting tips: World Championship day 11

1pt José De Sousa to hit 8+ 180s & a 100+ checkout at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt Chris Dobey & Gary Anderson both to hit 7+ 180s at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt MVG to win, hit 5.5+ 180s & checkout 114.5+ at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

2pts Smith to win & hit the most 180s at evens (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World Championship: Wednesday, December 28

EVENING SESSION

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1900 GMT
Round and Format: Round 3 (Best of seven sets)
Statistics: The below stats are from this year's World Championship but the ones in brackets (courtesy of @CarlyFletch and his @DartsTracker) are their seasonal data. The averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only.

Joe Cullen (4/5) v Damon Heta (10/11)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 5-3 (3-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 4-2 (3-0)
Three-Dart Average: 95.03 (94.44) - 96.17 (97.62)
180s per leg (2022): 0.38 (0.30) - 0.31 (0.31)
Checkout %: 42.3% (38.63) - 56.25% (38.19)
100+ checkout per leg won: 18.18% (13.97) - 22.22% (12.67)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 0% (27.85) - 100% (34.36)

Joe Cullen and Damon Heta will be clashing for the fourth time on TV this year, with the Rockstar winning all their previous three meetings.

Most notable was their meeting at the World Matchplay, where Heta started favourite only to be walloped 10-2 in a very one-sided match.

Cullen backed this up with a 6-2 victory in the New Zealand Darts Masters but the World Grand Prix encounter was much closer, with both players winning six legs each in the Englishman's 2-1 victory and also averaging 91.61 apiece.

Heta has endured a poor run of form on TV but that's not the case for Cullen, who has claimed the Masters at the start of 2022 to earn a Premier League place and he went on to miss a match dart to lift that very crown, losing the final to Michael Van Gerwen in a last leg shootout. He defeated ‘Rapid’ Ricky Evans 3-1 in his first game with a 95.03 and hitting seven maximums. It really was a tough test and such is the current situation of Cullen’s game, he passed it with flying colours.

Heta will be pleased to have defeated previous two time champ Adrian Lewis 3-0 in his opener. He averaged 96.17 but didn’t need to be at his best against a lacklustre Jackpot. That might just give him belief back on TV as he’s often looked dejected when up against it in front of the cameras.

He was of course a World Cup winner for his country earlier in the year and reached the UK Open quarter-finals so his troubles recently will only continue for so long. Having said that I expect Cullen to come out on top again here. Unfortunately the Aussie has lost his Grandad this week and he might just have other things on his mind.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-2

Michael van Gerwen (1/20) v Mensur Suljovic (8/1)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 19-4 (8-1)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average: 101.84 (98.43) - 88.65 (92.57)
180s per leg (2022): 0.30 (0.27) - 0.23 (0.14)
Checkout %: 50% (39.01) - 30% (39.42)
100+ checkout per leg won: 0% (13.78) - 0% (9.11)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 100% (26.71) - 100% (8.51)

Michael Van Gerwen has won 10 titles this season and will be hoping to make that 11 with the biggest of them all and reclaim his world number one status.

This year's World Matchplay, Grand Prix, Premier League and Players Championship Finals champion looked sublime in his second round defeat of Lewy Williams, dropping just one leg. His match average of 101.84 was the highest in that particular round and the second highest of the event so far.

They haven’t played each other this year yet but MVG boasts a healthy head to head record of 19-4 since they first met in in this event way back in 2010, when Mensur Suljovic triumphed 3-1. Their last encounter was a 10-4 victory for ‘The Green Machine’ at the UK Open in 2021.

Suljovic was victorious 3-0 against Mike De Decker despite an average of just 88.65. He actually started underdog in that game against the Belgian youngster but winning the opening set seemed to knock the stuffing out if his opponent. He ran out a facile winner in the end and the scoreline reflected his dominance.

He’ll have things tougher here and you’d expect that he’ll have to up his standard to near the level of Van Gerwen as you can’t see the Dutchman dropping to the Austrian's level.

One aspect of the game that MVG can improve on from his opener is his maximum count. He hit just three in that one but you’d imagine over this longer format he should hit a fair few more than that, especially the longer it goes on.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-0

CLICK HERE to back MVG to win, hit 5.5+ 180’s & checkout 114.5+ with Sky Bet

Michael Smith (1/5) v Martin Schindler (10/3)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 9-1 (2-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average: 96.62 (96.83) - 93.04 (94.95)
180s per leg (2022): 0.33 (0.35) - 0.33 (0.33)
Checkout %: 39.13% (39.46) - 36.7% (37.88)
100+ checkout per leg won: 22.22% (10.20) - 9.09% (10.27)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 100% (32.00) - 100% (34.29)

The night concludes with last years runner-up and recent Grand Slam champion Michael Smith taking centre stage.

Winning that maiden major title has finally got the monkey off his back and he is rightly towards the head of the market when it comes to the outright betting market.

He defeated Nathan Rafferty 3-0 in his opener, winning all nine legs with a 96.62 average, hitting three maximums along the way. He set a record for number of maximums by a player in the worlds when he found just Peter Wright too good last year.

He faces another very good 180 hitter this evening in Martin Schindler, who hit six in his 3-1 victory against Martin Lukeman.

The pair have met twice in front of the TV cameras and both games ended up in victory for ‘Bully Boy’. They also met recently at Players Championship 22, their sole meeting this year, which Smith won 6-5 and hit four maximums to the two of Schindler.

The German is an extremely dangerous opponent for Smith but can often look second best once his opponent gets on top in these big encounters. I suspect if Bully Boy gets off to a flyer and finds the red bit with his usual regularity he’ll have too much all in all.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-1

CLICK HERE to back Smith to win & hit the most 180 with Sky Bet

AFTERNOON SESSION

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1230 GMT
Round and Format: Round 3 (Best of seven sets)
Statistics: The below stats are from this year's World Championship but the ones in brackets (courtesy of @CarlyFletch and his @DartsTracker) are their seasonal data. The averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only.

Ryan Searle (8/13) v Jose de Sousa (6/5)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 1-3 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average: 88.60 (96.07) - 86.75 (94.75)
180s per leg (2022): 0.07 (0.25) - 0.24 (0.31)
Checkout %: 47.37% (39.09) - 36.11% (36.58)
100+ checkout per leg won: 11.11% (13.87) - 23% (12.40)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 0% (22.12) - 0% (28.93)

Ryan Searle came through a straightforward opener to defeat Adam Gawlas 3-0 despite a below-par performance. During this game he averaged 88.60 and hit just one 180. Heavy Metal has gone one round better in the last two years, when his runs were eventually ended by Stephen Bunting and Peter Wright but if he replicates his previous match form then he could be in trouble.

Jose de Sousa wasn’t majestic himself, and in the early stages of his opener against Simon Whitlock it was arguably the worst performance we’ve seen from him on TV for a while. He found his rhythm mid-game though a played much better from there on in. He fought back from 2-0 down to claim a 3-2 victory, winning nine of the last 11 legs in the process. His average was actually lower than that of Searle at 86.75 but he did manage to hit five maximums, a particular strength of his game.

He actually holds sway on the head-to-head 3-1, which includes their only clash this year at the Belgian Darts Open 6-4. They have also met in a final during a Players Championship event in 2021, again won by De Sousa 8-7 in another tight match.

I envisage this will be another tight game and we could see all seven sets played. While I’m not confident of predicting a winner in this one, the fact José was still able to fire in five maximums was pleasing. I think he could notch up eight or more in this one and given one in eight of his winning legs this year have been by virtue of an 100+ checkout, that’s the angle I’m taking here.

Scoreline Prediction: 3-4

CLICK HERE to back de Sousa to hit 8+ 180s and a 100+ checkout with Sky Bet

Danny Noppert (2/5) v Alan Soutar (7/4)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average: 95.03 (95.44) - 89.93 (91.81)
180s per leg (2022): 0.35 (0.28) - 0.27 (0.22)
Checkout %: 57.9% (40.33) - 40.91% (37.43)
100+ checkout per leg won: 9.09% (12.90) - 28% (10.22)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 0% (25.52) - 50% (19.23)

Danny Noppert is enjoying a fruitful 2022 and is right in Premier League contention thanks to winning the UK Open and going on other good runs in televised events. The Dutchman, who has also become a father, could be on the brink of another one here having kicked off his campaign with a 3-1 victory over Canadian David Cameron, averaging 95.03 and hitting six maximums.

The result was more impressive than the bear reading of the match suggests. Cameron found his scoring boots late on with a glut of maximums as he staged a spirited fightback. The only negative Noppert may take from this game was the fact he didn’t win 3-0 as he always looked the better player. He’s through, however, and we know his games is in a good place.

Alan Soutar enjoyed a run to the fourth round last year and will be looking to achieve the same feat with a victory over Noppert here. He’s already overcome Mal Cuming 3-0, which was as straightforward as it comes before dispatching the 24th seed Daryl Gurney by the same margin.

That game was considerably closer than scoreline suggests as each set was won in a last leg decider. A match-winning 160 was just sublime as ‘Superchin’ was sat poised on 40 to get a way back into the match. The Scot is a tenacious character and upped his match average nigh on six points in the second game to 92.29.

The pair have met just once before and that was Players Championship 28 when Soutar won 6-5. Noppert looked the better player during the game, he averaged seven points higher and led 5-3, missing two match darts to win 6-3. He succumbed however as Soutar pinched that leg before going on to claim the victory.

I expect Noppert's superiority to come to the fore in this longer format game and he should have too much for the likeable Scot.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-2

Gary Anderson (4/5) v Chris Dobey (10/11)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 8-2 (2-1)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 2-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average: 96.39 (95.70) - 86.74 (95.26)
180s per leg (2022): 0.20 (0.27) - 0.36 (0.31)
Checkout %: 31.43% (36.34) - 33.3% (31.88)
100+ checkout per leg won: 27.27% (8.47) - 22.22% (9.73)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 0% (16.87) - 100% (28.57)

These two served us up a seven-set thriller at the 2019 World Championships which featured 28 maximums, of which 15 were for Chris Dobey and 13 for Gary Anderson. Anything like that would be greatly appreciated here.

Anderson actually seems to produce his best against ‘Hollywood’, producing averages of 102.68, 101.43, 100.32, 98.75 and 103.57 in their last five encounters excluding the double-start World Grand Prix.

The Flying Scotsman came through a stern test in a high-quality opening game as he defeated Madars Razma 3-1 with a 96.39 average and registering four maximums. He needed to be on point, however, as his Latvian opponent hit nine scores of 171+ in response.

Dobey wasn’t quite as impressive but didn’t need to be against a profligate Martijn Kleermaker. He ran out a 3-0 winner despite averaging just 86.74. He did notch up five maximums and will need to up his performance if he’s to advance here.

Both these players are regulars when it comes to the filling up the red bit. Over the course of 2022 Anderson’s ratio is 0.27 per leg and Dobey’s is 0.31. This combined with the knowledge of their previous Ally Pally classic leads me to favour a plethora of maximums being hit again here. If this goes six or seven seven sets then both players are easily capable of reaching the 180 mark of 7 apiece.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-2