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PDC World Darts Championship 2023: Day three predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Fri December 23, 2022 · 2y ago

The PDC World Darts Championship continues on Saturday so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

There's two more sessions of action at the Ally Pally, where rising star Josh Rock makes his eagerly-anticipated debut.

Here, we look ahead to all four matches with seasonal statistics to help...

Darts betting tips: World Championship day three

1pt Adam Gawlas to beat Richie Burnett at 6/5 (Coral)

1pt Alan Soutar to beat Daryl Gurney at 11/10 (Paddy Power, bet365, Coral)

1pt Three or more 100+ checkouts in Josh Rock v Jose Justica at 15/8 (Sky Bet)

SL Acca: Gawlas, Soutar and Rock (-1.5) to win and over 3.5 sets in Menzies v Portela at 13/2 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World Championship: Saturday, December 17

EVENING SESSION

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 2000 GMT
Round and Format: Rounds 1 & 2 (Best of five sets)
In the below stats (courtesy of @CarlyFletch) and his @DartsTracker), the averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only. For players who haven't played in any PDC events like Nobuhiro Yamamoto, Christian Perez and Diogo Portela, any data available is only from their World Championship qualification route.

Ryan Meikle (2/9) v Lisa Ashton (3/1) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 92.59 - 81.23
180s per leg (2022): 0.25 - 0.11
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 29.60% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 10.37% - 8.42%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 20.73% - Unavailable

You'd be forgiven for not realising Lisa Ashton was actually the first female to book her place in this year's World Championship given all the hype and attention surrounding Beau Greaves and Fallon Sherrock.

The Lancashire Rose managed to hold on to top spot on the Women's Series Order of Merit despite Greaves winning the last eight events of the season and now she's got another chance to finally grab that headline-making victory that her career so richly deserves.

Sure, Ashton defeated plenty of men during her two years as a PDC Tour Card holder in 2020 and 2021, but she's lost all three of her first-round matches at the Ally Pally and all 12 at the Grand Slam of Darts. It would be quite ironic that she finally enjoys her big moment when flying so far under the radar.

Her Women's Series average of 81 probably won't be good enough to challenge the improving Ryan Meikle, who enjoyed enough decent runs on the Pro Tour this season to comfortably qualify for his fourth World Championship in a row, but the performance she produced against Joe Cullen at the Grand Slam of Darts would cause problems.

She led the Rockstar 3-1 only to miss four darts at a double in the next leg before going on to lose 5-3 with an average of 89, so Meikle will be taking nothing for granted.

Scoreline prediction: 3-1

Cameron Menzies (2/9) v Diogo Portela (3/1) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 92.59 - 79.05
180s per leg (2022): 0.25 - Unavailable
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 29.60% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 10.37% - Unavailable
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 20.73% - Unavailable

Cameron Menzies is competing in his second World Championship of the year but this is his first on the Ally Pally stage.

The Scotsman was among the favourites to win the WDF title at the Lakeside back in April having initially qualified before earning his PDC Tour Card at Q School, but despite an impressive charge to the semi-finals he lost 5-4 in a thrilling clash with Thibault Tricole.

Since then he's steadily climbed up the PDC rankings with some impressive wins on the floor, beating the likes of Gerwyn Price, Michael van Gerwen, Luke Humphries and Josh Rock while his seasonal average of 93.6 is highly creditable.

At the recent televised Players Championship Finals, he upset the odds to beat Rock with a 98 average and then gave MVG a game before bowing out 6-4.

Diogo Portela only needed an average of 79 to book his place at his sixth successive World Championship via his usual route of the South American qualifier but you can only beat what's in front of you.

Braziliant played to a much better standard than that to claim his one and only victory on this stage against Steve Beaton two years ago - albeit dropping below 80 in a 3-0 defeat to Glen Durrant in the following round - while he posted a 90 average in an agonising 3-2 loss against Alan Soutar 12 months ago.

I do feel Menzies will ultimately be too strong here, but Portela should be able to prevent a whitewash.

I've also managed to get through this preview without mentioning who Cameron's girlfriend is.

Scoreline prediction: 3-1

Josh Rock (1/14) v Jose Justicia (13/2) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 97.75 - 90.20
180s per leg (2022): 0.30 - 0.19
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 40.51% - 45.61%
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 12.52% - 11.07%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 26.92% - 14.93%

This will probably be the first and last time we ever see Josh Rock in the first round of the World Championship and there won't be many people expecting him to have any problems overcoming Jose Justicia.

Hardly anyone had head of the Northern Irishman 12 months ago but he arrives at the Ally Pally as fifth favourite for glory after an incredible debut year on the PDC circuit.

Not only did Rock win his maiden senior title in October and then hit a nine-darter during a Grand Slam of Darts classic with Michael van Gerwen last month, but he also boasts the second highest seasonal average behind the Dutchman.

Statistics courtesy of Carl Fletcher at Darts Tracker

All the statistical signs point towards a commanding victory with plenty more 180s but the wily Spaniard will probably resort to some kind of gamesmanship to make Rock's life as difficult as possible.

As Paul Nicholson wrote in his pre-tournament Sporting Life column: "Jose is a master of tactics, dark arts – you name it – but Josh will be prepared."

Justicia, who regained his Tour Card at European Qualifying School back in January, has a creditable seasonal average of around 90 and although he struggled to pick up many match wins over the last part of the season, he shouldn't be underestimated.

Two years ago on his stage he beat Aaron Monk 3-0 before losing a titanic battle against Stephen Bunting 3-2 with an average of 92 so if he can produce that kind of performance then he could potentially nick a set and give Rock something to think about.

Both players have impressive 100+ checkout stats this season and if we can get four sets then I fancy them to combine for at least three ton+ finishes.

Scoreline prediction: 3-1

CLICK HERE to back three or more 100+ checkouts with Sky Bet

Dimitri Van den Bergh (1/10) v Lourence Ilagan (11/2) (R2)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 95.66 - 83.94
180s per leg (2022): 0.30 - 0.17
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 40.41% - 58.8%
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 11.10% - 10.00%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 23.31% - 0%

Lourence Ilagan ended his long wait for a victory on the World Championship stage last night and he'll have to produce a very similar performance if he's to stand a chance against Dimitri Van den Bergh.

The fiery Filipino averaged 88 and hit over 50% of his doubles during an inspired display in which he also demonstrated tremendous character in the final set after Rowby-John Rodriguez had fought back from 2-0 down by winning seven legs on the trot.

Ilagan regained momentum to eventually drag himself over the line and set up a clash with the two-time quarter-finalist.

Van den Bergh heads to the Ally Pally with question marks over his recent form but overall it's not been a bad year having won a couple of World Series events and also reaching the World Matchplay semi-finals and the World Grand Prix quarter-finals.

This should be a comfortable opener for him and he's bound to boss the 180s, especially considering Ilagan didn't manage a single maximum against Rodriguez.

Scoreline prediction: 3-1

AFTERNOON SESSION

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1100 GMT
Round and Format: Rounds 1 & 2 (Best of five sets)
In the below stats (courtesy of @CarlyFletch) and his @DartsTracker), the averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only. For players who haven't played in any PDC events like Nobuhiro Yamamoto, Christian Perez and Diogo Portela, any data available is only from their World Championship qualification route.

Martin Lukeman (1/10) v Nobuhiro Yamamoto (11/2) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 92.36 - 82.00
180s per leg (2022): 0.19 - 0.04
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 38.12% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 12.44% - 5.13%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 21.43% - Unavailable

Martin Lukeman is one of the 22 World Championship debutants this year thanks to his impressive second season in the PDC ranks and he should be expected to come through against Nobuhiro Yamamoto.

Lukeman reached a maiden European Tour final back in April, when he lost to Luke Humphries, but more impressively he stunned James Wade and Ross Smith en route to the World Grand Prix quarter-finals in October before narrowly bowing out to Nathan Aspinall.

Since then he's not had too much joy on the stage or the floor but he's consistently averages in the 90s and anything around that level will be too much for Yamamoto, who was in the low 80s throughout his Japan Championship campaign.

Yamamoto, 45, was a relatively surprising winner of that event when you consider he's not previously earned a spot in Japan's World Cup teams during a career that also involves soft-tip competition and will need to be at his very best to nick a set.

Scoreline prediction: 3-0

WATCH: Paul Nicholson and Chris Hammer predict the Ally Pally draw!

Predicting the PDC World Darts Championship with Paul Nicholson!

Simon Whitlock (1/12) v Christian Perez (6/1) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (1-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (1-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 92.72 - 85.12
180s per leg (2022): 0.33 - 0.22
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 36.90% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 8.46% - 0.00%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 27.03% - Unavailable

Christian Perez is back on the Ally Pally stage for a fourth time - and first since 2015 - but big stage experience isn't a distant memory having competed in the recent Grand Slam of Darts.

He may have lost all three games, but he saved his best performance for his final group match with none other than Simon Whitlock, averaging a creditable 91 in a 5-3 defeat.

Perez, who has twice represented the Philippines at the World Cup of Darts, qualified for the Ally Pally by virtue of winning the PDC Asian Championship, will need to get close to that if he's to take a set off the Aussie but it's hard to see him doing much more damage than that.

Whitlock's highlight this season was winning the World Cup with Damon Heta and although he hasn't had much to shout about individually, he could so easily have reached the Grand Slam of Darts quarter-finals had he not found Raymond van Barneveld in such inspired form last month.

He'll dominate the 180s battle based on his very impressive maximum per leg rate this season but it's always a danger to go high on those if there's not going to be too many legs.

Scoreline prediction: 3-1

READ: Chris Hammer's outright preview and selections

Click on the image to check out our best bets

Adam Gawlas (1/1) v Richie Burnett (8/11) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 89.59 - 91.26
180s per leg (2022): 0.25 - 0.24
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 36.72% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 12.38% - 9.94%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 20.21% - 23.38%

Richie Burnett is back at the Ally Pally for the first time since 2014 after he rolled back the years to come through the last-gasp qualifying event at the end of November.

The 1995 Lakeside champion unleashed a stunning 109 average in one of his four victories that earned his World Championship spot although it's not often he ventures north of three figures these days.

Burnett, 55, has only climbed up to 115 on the Order of Merit since regaining his Tour Card back in January and didn't manage to qualify for last month's Players Championship Finals, so it's somewhat surprising to see him priced up as favourite to overcome Adam Gawlas.

The 20-year-old from the Czech Republic is coming to the end of his second year as a Tour Card holder and looked likely to lose it until his qualifications for the Grand Slam of Darts and his debut World Championship boosted his prize money significantly.

Gawlas, who would guarantee his place in the world's top 64 with a win, may have lost all three group games but he did manage a 97 average in a 5-3 defeat to Dirk van Duijvenbode to show more of what he's capable of and I can see him keeping the crowd favourite at bay this afternoon.

I wouldn't go near the 180s battle considering how closely they are matched for maximums per leg this season.

Scoreline prediction: 3-2

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Daryl Gurney (8/11) v Alan Soutar (1/1) (R2)

Head to Head (TV): 2-2 (1-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 93.08 - 91.81
180s per leg (2022): 0.27 - 0.22
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 36.46% - 37.43%
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 9.27% - 10.22%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 18.33% - 19.23%

Many darts fans will be surprised to see Alan Soutar priced up as the underdog in this second-round clash and Daryl Gurney is very much a seed in danger.

The Scottish fireman kicked off his second World Championship campaign with an easy 3-0 victory over Mal Cuming, dropping just two legs in the process, but he'll be keen to improve on his average of 87 when he faces the two-time quarter-finalist.

We can expect Soutar to raise his game and be up for the mental challenge against tougher opposition like we saw last year when he upset both Mensur Suljovic and Jose de Sousa en route to the fourth round.

At the recent Grand Slam of Darts, his relatively quiet campaign burst into life last month when he came through a group with Nathan Aspinall and Peter Wright before defeating Jonny Clayton 10-8 with a 97 average to reach the quarter-finals.

Gurney has endured a disappointing season by his standards, suffering early exits at all five majors he qualified for and very rarely threatened to win any events, with his best runs being a couple of semi-finals much earlier in 2022.

SuperChin perhaps lacks the confidence of previous years so I fancy the 'upset' here. I was tempted to go for the Soutar win with Gurney hitting most 180s but the Northern Irishman was struggling to find his range at the recent Players Championship Finals whereas his opponent managed four in just 11 legs on Friday.

Scoreline prediction: 1-3