Premier League Darts: John Part's predictions for the play-offs on finals night

The 2017 Premier League Darts season comes to a conclusion with the play-offs tonight (Thursday May 18) at London's O2 Arena, as Michael van Gerwen, Peter Wright, Phil Taylor and Gary Anderson battle it out for the title.

John Part, who triumphed in two PDC World Championship finals against Taylor and Kirk Shepherd to add to his BDO crown of 1994, looks ahead to what promises to be an enthralling night as he assesses each player’s chances and brings you his best bets and predictions.

The action kicks off at 1900 BST on Sky Sports 3, with Darth Maple on the commentary team...

Click here for all the key statistics and head-to-head records ahead of both play-off semi-finals at the O2

Who will win the Premier League Darts title?

So here we have it, the final four that almost everyone from the organisers to the fans were hoping for – the crème de la crème. 

The best there's ever been and the current best three now. And they will all truly believe they can win it.

They've all had their good points to get this far but the result which sticks out is the outsider of the four, Phil Taylor, defeating hot favourite Michael van Gerwen just two weeks ago.

It's a real reminder that in this competition any result is possible. 

So now it feels like spinning a wheel of chance in a game of skill.

Michael is still the best player in the world and understandably the favourite for the title having finished top of the table.

However, he's not been as imperious as we’ve seen him over the past couple of years - especially in 2016 - and isn’t operating at 100 per cent by his standards. 

That could be a mixture of fatigue, distractions, the injury from earlier in the season and maybe the pressure of having to continually live up to that aura he created. That’s hard when you’re not at your very best.

The margin of how far he’s the best isn’t as big and there isn't that same certainty he'll win.

However, if he turns up on one of his best days then he’ll make this kind of talk ridiculous! 

He's the same human being as he was last year – but that's the key. He's only human and inconsistencies have slipped into his game. For example, he's not as lethal on his finishing right now.

When I was put on the spot on TV last week to pick an overall winner, I said Gary Anderson – and I still feel I can go with him.

He's got the hardest semi-final of course but as it turned out last Thursday, he couldn't have even avoided that fate by beating MVG in his final regular season match as they would have then finished second and third in the table.

Defeating him last week would therefore have been regarded as a 'wasted' win of sorts and, in any case, I don't think it really affects his overall chance meeting him first on Thursday as he’d probably have met him in the final otherwise.

I find it surprising he's third favourite behind Peter.

Gary has that ability to shut out how good his opponent is and produce his own flurries of excellence. 

He's impervious and protected from negative thoughts which is why he so often excels on big occasions like the Premier League play-offs and World Championships when others may struggle.

If he does get past MVG, then he'll be on a roll and would take some beating against whoever he faces in the final.

In Peter Wright you have the best player for results this year and someone who is improving all the time.

He's won the most tournaments this season with seven and it could have been eight had be made the most of MVG’s absence at the Gibraltar Darts Trophy at the weekend.

But don't read much into that slip up because it’s not the greatest venue to excel for a number of reasons.

This would obviously be a much greater title for Wright to win than the UK Open was but landing his first major television crown gave him the perfect platform to build on.

It’s like he's on a strategic accent to the top, albeit not intentional.

He's certainly got the belief after winning a big tournament on TV although, unlike in Minehead, MVG will be in attendance this time. That won't faze him if they meet in the final having beaten him three times this year – it will just make the title even more significant.

You can never rule Phil Taylor out, even though he’s quite a distant long shot in the betting in a field of four. I doubt that’s ever happened!

This season he hasn't had the distractions of other events to prepare for and play in so physically and mentally he’s given himself the best possible chance.

That’s not to say he’s that much more rested than his opponents because he still does his exhibition work but for the most part his only focus is the Premier League.

He therefore has more clarity of purpose over the others. And when this ends he'll take the next majors one by one as he looks to take out at least one more big one before he retires.

It must be worrying for Michael – he’s in with three very possible winners.

So when the playing field is levelling up, you may as well go for the prices and at 11/2, Gary is my pick. 

Who wants it more?

All have reasons to want it but you could say I've probably picked the guy who wants it the least! That can have its own advantage but he'll obviously still have his own strong motivations as a third Premier League crown will the perfect way to respond to losing his world title to Michael at the start of the year.

It was the Premier League win in 2011, which gave him his big breakthrough so in that respect he’s a rare creature in darts. He's built his confidence through the Premier League whereas for a lot of players it does the opposite.

As we all know, Michael has this burning desire to keep making history and winning titles while Peter is gunning for the biggest title of his career. 

It would be wonderful for Phil to win his final ever Premier League but I’m not sure if he’d put it down as his greatest achievement. In years to come, will he remember it even as fondly as the title he won when hitting two nine-darters in the final? 

You never know, if he wins it, he might even change his mind on retiring!

The dream final?

There's going to be great stories whatever happens and I don’t think you can pick one possible final over any other as the 'dream final'. They are all tasty.

Of course Taylor playing the ‘greatest right now’ in MVG in his last ever Premier League would be incredible but Wright has been Michael’s main adversary - or nemesis - this year so that match up would also be exciting.

The rivalry and needle between Anderson and Wright would make for an interesting final too. Let’s put it this way – nobody will be going home early!

When you look at the calibre of the players, none of them will be able to get their hands on the trophy without doing some special so we’re all in for a great night.

Premier League Darts semi-final predictions

Semi-finals best of 19 legs (final best of 21 legs)

Michael van Gerwen (2/7) v Gary Anderson (11/4)

Having tipped Gary to win the title, he’ll therefore have to get past MVG, who he’s only beaten once in their last nine games although one of those was a draw.

But as I’ve already mentioned above, there’s no guarantees with Michael at the moment and Gary is always able to produce brilliance against anyone.

He’s 11/4 to win the semi-final, which is tempting enough, but I’m going to be bolder still and back Gary at 9/1 in Sky Bet’s Player Performance market.

This requires him to win, hit six 180s or more and manage a checkout of over 110.5.

Considering how well he’ll need to play to win, these are targets are modest while he’s already hit 53 maximums so far this season plus 12 of his 15 ton plus checkouts have been 114 or higher. 

Apart from the win, the other parts can’t be ruined by MVG, who is obviously very strong on 180s and is always looking to land a high out. 

Backers of MVG should also be wary of Gary’s strength in these areas of the game if they fancy any of the match doubles or trebles. Instead perhaps MVG to win with Anderson hitting the most 180s might be a better option for them.

For a scoreline, I’m going to pick 10-7 for Gary at 16/1.

Peter Wright (8/15) v Phil Taylor (6/4)

Taylor has done very well to put himself in this position this season and this is arguably the ideal semi-final opponent for him.

He can ease into it at his pace and if he’s not 100 per cent at the start I’m not sure he’d be as punished as badly as he would be against the other two.

Phil certainly won’t go out without a fight and that’s why I believe he’ll hang in there and make it close. 

However, Peter has been adding more notches onto his belt this year and the confidence gained will give him the belief to get over the line and earn a shot at the title. 

Rather than just back Peter to win at odds-on, I’m going to throw in the 180s to build the price up to 11/10. He’s consistently been hitting more maximums than Taylor this season (46 v 37) so it seems a safe extra to me.

For a scoreline prediction, I'm going for 10-8 in favour of Wright at 15/2 but I wouldn’t put anyone off backing 10-9 as I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this go the distance.

Click here for our Premier League Darts Play-Off Guide including statistics and head-to-head records

Click here for all the season's results, weekly reports and how the regular season table finished