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Daryl Gurney can win on Friday

Latest PDC World Darts Championship predictions: Betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time for Friday December 27

By James Cooper

Darts

Thu December 26, 2024 · 13h ago

The seeds have tumbled at the Alexandra Palace and round three commences on Friday. James Cooper has looked at the six matches and recommends four bets.

World Championship: Day 10 preview

SL Acca: 1pt Gurney +1.5 sets, Bunting, Wattimena -1.5 sets & Humphries -2.5 sets at 3/1 with Paddy Power

Scroll down for match-by-match tips, stats and scoreline predictions

Afternoon session (1245 GMT)

TV Coverage: Sky Sports
Format: Best of seven sets

Damon Heta (4/11) v Luke Woodhouse (12/5)

Three-dart average (2024) 96.61-93.24
180s per leg (2024) 0.31-0.27
Checkout % (2024) 44.67-41.07

In terms of raw averages, only the Jermaine Wattimena against James Wade match and Joe Cullen versus Wessel Nijman clash recorded a higher combined number than Damon Heta vs Connor Scutt on Saturday evening.

Scutt was probably a shade unfortunate on the night, missing doubles to level at 2-2 but after losing the opening set, I was really impressed with Heta.

Woodhouse wasn’t as flashy when causing an upset against the well-touted Mike De Decker, who performed well below expectations with Woodhouse a 3-1 winner despite a run-of-mill 88.38 average.

The pair met in the last 64 stage in the 2022 renewal, with Heta running out a 3-1 winner and in terms of their head-to-head record, the Australian leads 8-4.

We are, of course, in best-of-seven territory now and the longer format really should suit the superior player when looking at both match and side markets.

If this gets close, the high checkout line of 136.5 may well be surpassed but I’m happier to side with Heta to record the most 180s at a shade of odds-on (19/20) while the 10/11 in other places also looks acceptable.

Scoreline verdict 4-2

SELECTION: 1.5pts Damon Heta to hit most 180s against Luke Woodhouse at 19/20 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)

Jonny Clayton (4/5) v Daryl Gurney (11/10)

Three-dart average (2024) 93.76-93.41
180s per leg (2024) 0.22-0.23
Checkout % (2024) 39.75-41.89

With Wessel Nijman and Michael Smith eliminated, opportunity knocks in quarter three, which now looks wide-open.

As the numbers and odds suggest, Jonny Clayton against Daryl Gurney is a very close match to call, but I make SuperChin very marginal favourite for this, while the layers disagree.

In many ways, Monday’s wins for the pair went as expected.

Clayton outscored the pedestrian Mickey Mansell but missed his share of doubles along with the odd inspired checkout from his opponent, which resulted in a much closer game than the averages merited.

The Ferret finally prevailed with additional legs required in the final set whereas Gurney was far more impressive despite also needing a final set to see off Florian Hempel.

After losing the opening set, Gurney surpassed the 100 average mark in two subsequent sets and while this really should go deep again, I feel Gurney is in slightly better nick when it comes to hitting the doubles.

A 5-2 head-to-head record also favours the Northern Irishman so odds-against quotes are appealing.

Scoreline verdict: 3-4

SELECTION: 1.5pts Daryl Gurney to beat Jonny Clayton at 11/10 (General)

Stephen Bunting (1/4) v Madars Razma (10/3)

Three-dart average (2024) 96.81-91.20
180s per leg (2024) 0.32-0.13
Checkout % (2024) 41.25-40.45

Madars Razma had the box seat view of the first nine-darter of the tournament made by Christian Kist and having been outscored by his opponent, he was very neat and tidy in the finishing department.

Razma also did what was required against Dirk van Duijvenbode but taking down Stephen Bunting over a longer match length is a different examination.

Bunting, though, did look in a spot of early bother himself against Kai Gotthardt before rallying for what was ultimately a fairly routine 3-1 success.

The 180s market does an interesting angle here and it may pay to go against the grain and side with over 10.5 maximums.

Razma is well known as a prolific treble 19 switcher and he’s even started legs in that segment but on the evidence of his first two matches, the Latvian is employing a more uniform approach, hitting nine 180s in the process.

Bunting is a reliable T20 operator and with the expectation that Razma is in good enough nick to win at least two sets, the low-looking line (presumably based on his seasonal per leg ratio) should be within range.

Scoreline verdict: 4-2

SELECTION: 2pts Over 10.5 total 180s in Stephen Bunting against Madars Razma at 10/11 (General)

Evening session (1915 GMT)

TV Coverage: Sky Sports
Format: Best of seven sets

Gerwyn Price (4/9) v Joe Cullen (2/1)

Three-dart average (2024) 96.98-90.93
180s per leg (2024) 0.30-0.26
Checkout % (2024) 40.35-37.83

Of all the six matches, this one looks comfortably the hardest to assess from a betting perspective.

Both have endured poor seasons; for context Price’s win percentage stands at 59.5 against a career best of 80.2% in 2021, while Cullen’s 45.5% is the lowest of his career

There’s an awful lot of back class for both to call upon and neither dropped a set against Keane Barry and Wesel Nijman in round 2 respectively.

Cullen, in particular, looked back to his best when lowering the colours of the well-fancied Dutchman, crashing in eight maximums in 13 legs in the process prior to his bizarre post-match interview.

Price was more workmanlike and it wouldn’t have been a whitewash had Barry not had a shocker on the doubles (2/24).

Purely on the evidence of those matches, a case for Cullen can certainly be made but given the peaks of troughs of the pair in recent times, sitting this one out could be wise.

Scoreline verdict: 4-3

Jermaine Wattimena (2/5) v Peter Wright (9/4)

Three-dart average (2024) 95.20-92.16
180s per leg (2024) 0.25-0.22
Checkout % (2024) 39.88-37.45

Continuing the theme of former world champions on a downward trajectory, Peter Wright is also on course to record the lowest win rate of his career in 2024 (48.4%).

Banging his head against a brick wall against the best in the Premier League was a contributing factor but however you slice it, Wright has been struggling for form over a prolonged period.

A 3-1 win over Wesley Plaisier was a step back in the right direction but it could have been very different given his opponent was the heavier of the two scorers and the final leg score was 9-9.

Wattimena on the other hand was only one notch below the 100 average mark when a superb 3-0 winner over James Wade which included an enormous 129.3 first-three-dart average.

The overwhelming head-to-head record in Wright’s favour doesn’t look too relevant at present and it’s hard to see Wattimena failing to get the job done.

Scoreline verdict: 4-1

Luke Humphries (1/16) v Nick Kenny (12/1)

Three-dart average (2024) 98.53-89.74
180s per leg (2024) 0.34-0.22
Checkout % (2024) 41.26-36.96

A Grand Slam blip aside, it’s been business as usual for Luke Humphries, who didn’t need to do anything out of the ordinary to win all nine legs against Thibault Tricole, who missed eight darts at a double.

Nick Kenny sprung a minor surprise against Raymond van Barneveld in round two but an average around the 87 mark won’t trouble Cool Hand Luke.

A 4-0 win is a best price of 6/5 and the accurately reflects the gulf in class, so betting opportunities look extremely limited.

Scoreline verdict: 4-0

Posted at 1400 GMT on 26/12/24