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Fallon Sherrock (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)

Grand Slam of Darts: Thursday night predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Carl Fletcher

Darts

Fri November 19, 2021 · 3y ago

The second round of the Cazoo Grand Slam of Darts concludes on Thursday night so check out Carl Fletcher's match-by-match predictions, best bets and an acca.

The eight players in who came through Groups E-H are in action tonight, including 170 checkout hero Fallon Sherrock as she faces Mensur Suljovic in a 2019 Ally Pally rematch.

Darts betting tips: Grand Slam of Darts day six

0.5pts on Smith vs Cullen to have 16.5 legs, highest checkout over 126.5 and over 10.5 180’s at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Wright vs De Sousa to have Over 17.5 legs at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

2pts Mensur Suljovic to win & hit 5+ 180’s at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

2pts Michael Van Gerwen, 2 or more 100+ checkouts in the match at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Thursday November 18: Second round

Evening Session (1900 GMT)
TV Coverage: Sky Sports
Format: Best of 19 legs

SL Acca: Click here to back Cullen (+2.5 legs), De Sousa (+2.5 legs), MVG (-2.5 legs) and Suljovic at 4/1 with Sky Bet

Michael Smith (4/5) v Joe Cullen (Evs)

Head to Head (TV): 9-7 (1-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (1-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 2-2 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 96.53 – 95.89
180’s per leg (2021): 0.28 – 0.32
Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 37.85% - 39.15%
100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 10.95% - 10.61%

This game should be played at a fantastic pace between two players who are live outsiders for this event. Both players have been in the winners enclosure twice apiece this year and there isn’t a great deal to choose between them looking at the seasonal data and previous head to head.

It’s ‘Bully Boy’ who starts slight favourite and it was him who won on their only meeting this year, 10-9 in the UK Open back in Match. He also topped his group with three wins from three, taking his current winning streak in group match games to thirteen games, his previous loss being to Mensur Suljovic way back on 12th November 2017 – a truly impressive record!

It’s the knockout stages now however where he’ll be looking to kick on. His tournament average is 94.96. After two impressive victories against RVB and Gary Anderson to begin with, this fell after he laboured to a 5-3 win over Joe Davis averaging just 87.38. I believe that all three opponents of Davis struggled with that game against a clearly struggling opponent. I would concentrate on these first two games as a better indicator of his current form.

Joe Cullen on the other hand qualified relatively easily having won two and suffering a loss to a record breaking 115.19 average from Michael Van Gerwen. He lost nothing in defeat and did extremely well to prise two legs from that match.

His tournament average is slightly higher at 96.73, so is his doubles percentage of 44.44% and no one has hit more 180’s than him in the group stage with 11 at a whopping 0.58 per leg.

I’m expecting this to be a classic, much like their UK Open match that went all the way. That game saw ‘The Rockstar’ race into a 5-1 lead before losing and was a match where both players traded six 180’s apiece and five ton plus finishes including a Big Fish for Michael Smith.

I don’t think Cullen will be so profligate on this occasion and I’m going for him to reverse their previous match and come through a last leg decider here. I’ll be focusing my selection here however on a match performance bet here as opposed to the match victor given how close this could be.

Predicted Scoreline: Michael Smith 9-10 Joe Cullen

Peter Wright (4/5) v Jose De Sousa (Evs)

Head to Head (TV): 3-1-4 (1-1-1)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-1-1 (0-1-1)
2021 TV Titles (TV): 5-3 (1-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 97.83 – 98.15
180’s per leg (2021): 0.31 – 0.35
Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 38.21% - 39.42%
100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 12.23% - 11.61%

Defending champion Jose De Sousa was a shade fortunate in the end to come through the group having looked in all sorts of trouble trailing 4-1 to Luke Humphries in his final game. He did enough however to muster up the required number of legs to seal qualification and that’s all that can be asked of him in the first phase of this competition.

His tournament average of 92.47 is way below what we’ve become accustomed to with the ‘Special One’ and part of the reason for this is his explosive 180 hitting is falling short of the early season level it was, in fact he’s amassed just five in his last six games (46 legs).

Since the start of October he’s played 38 matches and won 27 of them so whilst his performances are not quite what they were he’s still getting the results.

In that same period ‘Snakebite’ has played just 22 matches, winning exactly 50% of them (11). This will be alarming for Wright as will the fact he’s yet to get past the Last 16 in any event during this period either.

The tournament stats for Wright read similar to De Sousa with an average of just 92.19 and a miserly record on his doubles at 25.45%. His 180 per leg ratio however is somewhat better though at 0.45 per leg.

Neither player is in the form of their lives so yet again it’s a difficult game to call. We know what they’re both capable of though and whilst we don’t expect it to be, it could be a classic if Matchplay standard Peter Wright rocks up against Premier League standard Jose De Sousa.

The pair have met twice this year with a draw then an 8-1 victory for the Portuguese star in their Premier League clashes. I don’t expect this to be such a one sided affair but I’m going for him to pip Wright here to continue the defence of his crown.

Predicted Scoreline: Peter Wright 8-10 Jose De Sousa

Mensur Suljovic (4/9) v Fallon Sherrock (7/4)

Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-1)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 94.18 – 94.63* (*Tournament Stats)
180’s per leg (2021): 0.18 – 0.42*
Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 40.91% - 37.93%*
100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 9.30% - 18.18%*

What else can you about Fallon Sherrock? When the chips were down on Tuesday night she dug deep to produce some magic darts. The 141 and 170 finish were absolutely amazing, it was arguably some of the best finishing I’ve ever seen when needed.

Her opponent, Gabriel Clemens must’ve been dumbfounded having led 3-1 however. He didn’t do a great deal wrong and a 93.33 average was a decent performance. Fallon was just ruthless and whatever superlative has been used to describe her performance is fully justified. The Queen of the Palace is now also the Queen of Aldersley Leisure Village – albeit that doesn’t have the same ring to it.

She needs to move on now however as she faces Mensur Suljovic in the Last 16. These two are no strangers having met in the World Championship previously where famously Sherrock came out on top 3 sets to 1 with a 90.67.

In recent months Fallon has demonstrated just how good she is by dominating the Women’s Series and reaching the final Nordic Darts Masters, succumbing only to MVG in the final having looked the likely winner for much of that match. Her tournament average is a superb 94.63 and she is smashing in the 180’s at 0.42 per leg. A repeat of that victory over Mensur is certainly a real possibility tonight.

Suljovic will have something to say about that however. Having missed several months of the campaign he’s come back a resurgent player. Runner-Up in the World Cup of Darts and the Gibraltar Darts Trophy and he’s won 20 of his 33 matches since his return.

On the whole ‘The Gentle’ looked good in the group stage with two ton plus averages in beating Luke Humphries and Matt Campbell, the latter with a 105.85 average. His sole defeat came at the hands of defending champion Jose De Sousa and a disastrous last leg cost him any chance of winning that.

He’s in a good place at the moment with four ton plus averages in his last seven matches. His tournament stats read very well too. A tournament average of 97.93, nine 180’s at a rate of 0.41 per leg is much higher than we’ve been accustomed to from him and his double percentage is an amazing 63.64%.

If he produces that level of performance tonight I expect him to win but a partisan crowd will be fully behind Fallon Sherrock so he needs to overcome that barrier too. I think that factor will aide Fallon a lot and Mensur will need to get off to a good start. The tighter the game is towards the end the more difficulty he will have seeing this through but I like what I’ve seen from him recently and I’m siding with the Austrian for the victory.

Predicted Scoreline: Mensur Suljovic 10-7 Fallon Sherrock

Michael Van Gerwen (1/3) v Gary Anderson (23/10)

Head to Head (TV): 44-3-18 (24-3-12)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 2-1-0 (1-1-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 2-0 (1-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 99.43 – 95.43
180’s per leg (2021): 0.22 – 0.26
Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 43.68% - 36.24%
100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 14.30% - 11.51%

When these pair clash it’s always a game you look forward to but when it’s in a major it always seems to add extra spice to what is already a fairly mouth-watering prospect.

Michael has been in terrific form of late. With thirteen 100+ averages in his last 21 matches, 36 wins in his last 44 matches and now two titles under his belt in 2021 we are starting to see some of the old ‘Green Machine’ coming to the fore.

Having set a record average of 115.19 in his second group game, his standard dropped somewhat to 93.94 in his final group match against John Henderson – his lowest average in his last 16 matches – but he won 5-1 nonetheless to top his group with three wins from three.

His tournament average is 104.84, his doubles percentage is 45.45% and his hitting a 180 every other leg with nine so far in eighteen legs of darts. No wonder he’s become favourite with the bookmakers to win the tournament.

‘The Flying Scotsman’ will have no fear in facing MVG having come through a tough group containing Michael Smith and Raymond Van Barneveld. In a winner takes all match versus RVB in the final game some of vintage Anderson returned as he produced a stunning display to win 5-2 with a 103.88. This maintained his phenomenal record of advancing through the group stage on every occasion he’s been involved in this event.

His tournament stats aren’t as impressive as Mighty Mikes. 33.33% on his doubles, a 180 per leg ratio of 0.25 and tournament average of 92.96. I believe you can ignore his tournament average however as all three opponents struggled facing a player who was clearly playing through the pain barrier. His seasonal average of 95.43 is probably more of an indicator of where his overall form is at currently.

Looking through his recent form, Anderson suffered a terrible October, losing 6 of the 9 games he played. He’s reversed that since and has now won 6 of his last 9 and produced four ton plus averages during this latest period too.

On the whole however that still leaves him somewhat short of where MVG is at the moment and I’m siding towards a Van Gerwen victory here.