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Fallon Sherrock will face Peter Wright

Grand Slam of Darts: Day one predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Sun November 14, 2021 · 3y ago

The Cazoo Grand Slam of Darts gets under way on Saturday so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

The group stage begins across two sessions on Saturday and there's no doubt the most intriguing ties involve Fallon Sherrock and Lisa Ashton, who face Peter Wright and Michael van Gerwen respectively.

Here's our match-by-match guide to all of the action...

Darts betting tips: Grand Slam of Darts day one

1pt Dobey to win and hit more 180s than Rodriguez at 6/4 (Paddy Power)

1pt Schindler to hit more 180s than Ratajski at 6/4 (General)

1pt Rob Cross to beat Boris Krcmar, hit the most 180s and the highest checkout at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Gerwyn Price (-3.5 legs) to beat Nathan Rafferty at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt Luke Humphries (-1.5 legs) to beat Mensur Suljovic at 5/4 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Grand Slam of Darts: Saturday November 13

Afternoon Session (1300 GMT)
TV Coverage: Sky Sports
Format: Best of nine legs sets.

Stephen Bunting (4/7) v Ryan Joyce (5/4) (Group D)

Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 93.83 – 92.75
180s per leg (2021): 0.27 – 0.19
Checkout % (Stage Events 2021): 41.6% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 15.68% -13.33%

Stephen Bunting has enjoyed a resurgent season having won his first title for five years during the summer while he followed up his semi-final run at the World Championship with a stunning run to the same stage of the World Grand Prix last month.

His prolific high 100+ checkout shooting and clinical finishing were two of the biggest reasons for that and he's also been one of the superior players on both metrics across the whole season - especially the number of times he's won a leg with a 100+ out (15.68%).

He should have too much quality and confidence in his tank for Ryan Joyce although the latter's 100+ checkout stats are also impressive so I like the 6/4 available on there being one over 120.5 in the match.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-2

Krzysztof Ratajski (4/9) v Martin Schindler (13/8) (A)

Head to Head (TV): 5-1 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 97.07 – 95.73
180s per leg (2021): 0.25 – 0.28
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 36.74% - 34.38%
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 10.34% - 11.96%

Krzysztof Ratajski is one of my outright picks so I'd hope he gets off to a winning start but I also wrote in my group-by-group about how dangerous Martin Schindler has been away from the TV cameras this season, boasting some impressive stats.

His average of 95.73 ranks him 11th out of everyone in this field and although it's lower than Ratajski, the German is firing in 180s at a higher rate so it might pay to take him at 6/4 to hit the most maximums.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-3

Mervyn King (1/3) v Bradley Brooks (9/4) (B)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.03 – 88.39
180s per leg (2021): 0.23 – 0.20
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 47.64% - 38.46%
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 14.06% - 12.04%

Bradley Brooks, who qualified due to landing the world youth title last year, recently underlined why has a bright future ahead of him as he won the UK Development Tour to book his place in his second successive World Championship.

But unfortunately for him, Mervyn King is still showing no real sign of ageing at the age of 55 and although he has no titles or notably long TV runs to speak of this year, he's still produced consistently high averages and is certainly one of the most lethal finishers around.

The short format is also a bit of a lottery but King's experience should win him through fairly comfortably.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-2

James Wade (1/2) v Jim Williams (6/4) (C)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.86 – 89.51
180s per leg (2021): 0.20 – 0.17
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 46.60% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 13.23% - 6.83%

Jim Williams is no stranger to the Grand Slam of Darts having qualified twice during the BDO era and this year he's back having won the UK Challenge Tour which also seals his first PDC Tour Card for the next two seasons.

It's a well-deserved step in the right direction for a player who has surprisingly failed to achieve one during his Q School attempts and the consistent exposure to better opponents will surely help him become a serious operator in years to come.

He could be a real danger in this short format encounter for James Wade, whose performances have dropped off in floor events in recent months, but I'd still expect the Machine to turn his levels back up for when it really matters. Considering his 180s per leg ratio and high checkout stats are also noticeably higher than Williams, you can get 4/1 on Wade to pull off the match treble.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-3

Rob Cross (4/11) v Boris Krcmar (2/1) (C)

Head to Head (TV): 3-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 2-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 2-0 (1-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 96.41 – 91.86
180s per leg (2021): 0.23 – 0.20
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 38.48% - 40.91%
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 11.00% - 11.32%

Rob Cross has enjoyed one of the best seasons out of everyone when you consider how brilliantly he's got his career back on track after a difficult 18 months or so which also saw him suffer Premier League relegation for the second successive year back in May.

Voltage's stats, results and confidence have all trended rapidly in the right direction over the past few months and he followed up his brilliant victory over Michael van Gerwen in the European Championship final with another Pro Tour title a few days later.

He should breeze through this encounter and should seriously be considered to pull off the match treble (win, most 180s, high checkout) at 11/4.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-2

Jonny Clayton (2/9) v Rusty-Jake Rodriguez (3/1) (B)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 3-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 6-0 (4-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 98.69 – 92.47
180s per leg (2021): 0.27 – 0.21
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 43.31% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 13.14% - 6.11%

Jonny Clayton has undoubtedly been 'the' player of the season due to winning as many as six titles and four televised crowns in breathtaking fashion so it remains surprising to see him rated as the 6/1 third favourite to land this title. He's displayed every quality you need to win majors more than anyone else on a regular basis.

Unfortunately only one of his TV titles was a major - the World Grand Prix - so his world ranking of eight is about as unfair as you can get but a great run here - starting with what should be a one-sided victory against rising Austrian star Rusty-Jake Rodriguez, will help get him closer to the position he deserves.

Rodriguez has been posting some highly impressive numbers on the European Development Tour but he's been a little out of his depth on his Pro Tour outings so I'd expect Clayton to dominate and land the match treble at 5/2.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-1

Gerwyn Price (1/8) v Nathan Rafferty (9/2) (A)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 4-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 99.37 – 82.50
180s per leg (2021): 0.29 – 0.13
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 43.08% - NA
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 11.51% - 7.69%

Gerwyn Price finds himself in a very tough group but he should open his campaign with a comfortable victory to give himself a firm foundation to qualify for the next round.

Nathan Rafferty is here after finishing second to already-qualified Bradley Brooks in the UK Development Tour Order of Merit but without wanting to sound too disrespectful, he'd probably be happy to take a couple of legs off the two-time Grand Slam of Darts champion, who missed the recent Super Series to ensure he's fully recharged for Wolverhampton.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-1

Chris Dobey (2/5) v Rowby-John Rodriguez (7/4) (D)

Head to Head (TV): 3-1 (1-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 97.51 – 92.51
180s per leg (2021): 0.32 – 0.23
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 36.67% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 12.06% - 14.39%

Chris Dobey may have been a very late arrival into the Grand Slam of Darts line-up after Dimitri Van den Bergh was ruled out due to Covid but he's been in such great form of late that I believe he represents each-way value for title glory.

Statistically he's averaging highly on a consistent basis as his seasonal mark of 97.51 is among the highest out of everyone in this field. He's also won two titles this season - including the first of his career - so we really good see him reach a new level over the next week.

He dominates Rowby-John Rodriguez on all the key metrics so he looks a safe bet at evens to win with the most 180s.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-2

Evening Session (1900 GMT)

TV Coverage: Sky Sports
Format: Best of nine legs sets

Gabriel Clemens (4/9) v Mike De Decker (13/8) (E)

Head to Head (TV): 2-0 (2-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 2-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 92.98 – 91.22
180s per leg (2021): 0.29 – 0.24
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 36.15% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 12.44% - 11.07%

Statistically there's not too much to separate these players in terms of performance this season although Gabriel Clemens obviously has plenty more big-stage exposure than Mike De Decker.

The German Giant has beaten him twice this season but over this short format, anything can happen and I'm not too keen getting involved in this game. If pushed, I'd go for the outsider to edge a close tussle.

Scoreline Prediction: 4-5

Jose de Sousa (2/9) v Matt Campbell (3/1) (F)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 3-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 98.24 – 85.81
180s per leg (2021): 0.35 – 0.14
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 39.113% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 11.67% - 11.11%

Jose de Sousa is understandably a hot favourite to start his title defence with a victory having enjoyed another superb season, although his performances and results have tailed off a little over the past couple of months.

He's not hitting 180s to the same insane rate as he was earlier in the campaign but even so, he should have more than enough to deal with Canada's Matt Campbell, who has qualified by virtue of winning the European Challenge Tour Order of Merit.

That's not to say Campbell, who has impressed darts fans during his World Cup appearances, won't become a threat in the future once he gets more exposure to this kind of standard on the main PDC Tour.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-2

Luke Humphries (4/6) v Mensur Suljovic (11/10) (F)

Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.58 – 94.05
180s per leg (2021): 0.26 – 0.17
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 38.06% - 38.84%
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 11.75% - 9.09%

I've tipped Luke Humphries, who has a genuine appetite to save his best for the big TV stages, to win this group and expect him to come out all guns blazing against Mensur Suljovic tonight.

This year's UK Open runner-up showed promise on his World Grand Prix debut and at the European Championship he almost took de Sousa right to the wire before losing out 10-8 despite averaging four points higher with 99.

Humphries will fancy his chances against Suljovic, who he's been averaging higher than this season, and backing him on the handicap is the way to go.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-3

Gary Anderson (2/9) v Joe Davis (3/1) (H)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.50 – 84.53
180s per leg (2021): 0.26 – 0.11
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 36.50% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 11.85% - 3.88%

Gary Anderson may well have been below his legendary best this season but obviously the gulf in class between he and 2020 World Youth runner-up Joe Davis is pretty stark, even based on the Flying Scotsman's 2021 form.

A big margin of scoreline is on the cards and you can get 2/1 on Anderson winning 5-1 or 5-0, which has to be considered.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-1

Michael van Gerwen (1/10) v Lisa Ashton (11/2) (G)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 2-0 (1-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 99.37 – 86.30
180s per leg (2021): 0.22 – 0.14
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 43.60% - 36.36%
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 14.32% - 11.32%

Michael van Gerwen is the shortest-priced player of the night which is perhaps a little disrespectful to Lisa Ashton, who was only marginally second best statistically to Fallon Sherrock during the PDC Women's Series.

So when you consider that Sherrock led MVG 6-3 at one point during the Nordic Darts Masters final in September and these matches are first to five legs, it's not inconceivable whatsoever that Ashton can pull off a huge shock.

Obviously this would require van Gerwen to be below his best which is somewhat unlikely considering he finally broken his ranking duck for the season last week and is finding some ominous form ahead of the most important part of they year.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-2

Joe Cullen (4/11) v John Henderson (2/1) (G)

Head to Head (TV): 1-3 (1-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 2-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.88 – 91.77
180s per leg (2021): 0.31 – 0.24
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 38.53% - 28.57%
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 10.86% - 13.71%

John Henderson will probably have the crowd on his side as usual despite being south of the border but that's about all going in his favour against Joe Cullen.

Hendo is 'only' here because of winning the World Cup alongside Peter Wright and although he pulled his weight considerably during that run, his individual performances this year have been disappointing both from a results and statistical perspective.

Cullen, by contrast, has won a couple of titles and it could have been three had he not lost to Ratajski in the last Players Championship event of the season last week. On that day he averaged over 100 on three occasions, including a massive 111.28 against MVG in the semis.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-2

Peter Wright (1/5) v Fallon Sherrock (10/3) (E)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 5-6 (1-0) * Fallon's titles were in the PDC Women's Series
Three-Dart Average (2021): 97.92 – 85.54
180s per leg (2021): 0.30 – 0.20
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 39.41% - 38.46%
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 12.46% - 5.98%

If you asked Fallon Sherrock what would be more important - a victory over Peter Wright or qualifying for the second round - she wouldn't even dignify the question with answer. She's been there, done that in terms of beating big name male players on the TV and while the novelty hasn't exactly worn off, her career is much more than individual results.

The stats above would suggest she's unlikely to come out on top against World Matchplay champion Peter Wright but we know Sherrock can raise her game to much higher levels than her mean when she comes up against world-class opposition.

Her women's series average of 85.54 may seem very mediocre to the men on the main PDC Tour but you've got to bare in mind she didn't really need much more to beat some of the opposition. Put her among the men on a regular basis and her seasonal average would be markedly higher. Just look at what she did to Dimitri Van den Bergh at the Nordic Darts Masters, for example, before just coming up short against MVG.

Wright's performances levels have really dipped since the summer so Sherrock could run him a lot closer than many expect.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-4

Michael Smith (1/2) v Raymond van Barneveld (6/4) (H)

Head to Head (TV): 10-7, 1 draw (5-5, 1 draw)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 2-1 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2021): 96.56 – 94.57
180s per leg (2021): 0.28 – 0.24
Checkout percentage (Stage Events 2021): 38.37% - 50%
100+ checkout per leg won (2021): 11.19% - 12.40%

Last but certainly not least on opening night is Raymond van Barneveld's first appearance in a Sky Sports-televised event since he came back out of retirement.

Barney, who memorable beat MVG to win this event back in 2012, did of course feature at the UK Open on ITV4 back in March but he bowed out in his first match to Alan Soutar so this will feel like a much bigger deal after a pretty impressive season.

Van Barneveld has marked his first season back on tour with a title back in February while statistically he's ranked around the top 25 this season.

Michael Smith, however, is inside the top 10 on averages and although he's still somehow searching for his first major title, he has boosted his confidence with a pair of Players Championship crowns in 2021, including one last month.

It could be a close encounter but I fancy Smith to come through.

Scoreline Prediction: 5-3