World Grand Prix 2020: Paul Nicholson's quarter-by-quarter preview of the double-start major

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The Asset rates the double-start major, which usually takes place in front of a raucous Dublin crowd, as his favourite of the year outside of the World Championship and will attempt to pick a winner from each quarter.

But before getting stuck into that, Nicholson reflects on his weekend commentating at the German Darts Championship, where Devon Petersen maintained his hot streak of form to win his maiden PDC title in front of a crowd.

EURO STAR RAISES ROOF

When we arrived for the opening day of The German Darts Championship, there were maybe 10 people in the crowd during the afternoon session. And that felt almost normal, which is quite sad when you think about it.

I’ve been going to Hildesheim since 2011 and when the crowd is roaring, it’s a fabulous place to play darts. So, when the fans turned up over the weekend and the volume cranked up, the hairs on the back of the commentators necks were starting to go up as well. There was definitely more of a buzz than the bigger events that have been played behind closed doors, especially during the walk-ons, and we’ve just got to hope these atmospheres return in this country in the not too distant future.

The pressure was certainly on Michael van Gerwen, who had won 32 of the previous 79 European Tour events in history and it was an ideal opportunity for him to get back to title-winning form in front of a crowd.

Once he was eliminated, we started to look at Devon Petersen after he’d pulled off a Lazarus act to come from 5-1 down to beat arguably the best player in the world right now in Gerwyn Price.

He went on to beat Cross, Ratajski and Noppert with really impressive 100+ averages to reach the final, where he brushed aside Jonny Clayton with a 102 average game.

He’s making everyone realise how good he is now because this is no fluke. This is no flash in the pan. He is here to stay.

The way he’s continually bounced back from the recent missed match darts to win a maiden Players Championship title and then to win that first title – both against Price - shows you just how mentally strong he is. Those same setbacks would have damaged many other players.

Devon was actually pretty calm with his celebrations considering it was his first title, and perhaps that underlines his belief that this is just the first of many rather than a career high. Nobody will want to play him right now, especially with the amount of 180s he’s hitting.

Obviously we don’t know how he’ll adapt to double-start darts at the World Grand Prix as this will be his debut, but the other majors this winter, he’ll be considered a real threat.

WORLD GRAND PRIX: SHOCK FACTOR

The World Grand Prix has a reputation of throwing up some surprise results due to its double-start format.

Based on some of the results we have seen in the tournaments history – such as Andy Callaby and Kevin Painter both beating Phil Taylor and Michael van Gerwen losing to John Henderson at the peak of his powers – many of the shocks happen in the short-format early rounds and if they were a little bit longer, maybe they’d turned it round.

I once got handed a first-round draw with Robert Thornton, who was a real double-start specialist and went on to win it a few years later, so I had to play the best darts of my life to beat him. If it was best of five sets, there was every chance that I could have been reeled in because Robert was really good at long format.

The format does play into the underdogs hands a little bit but they have to be proficient at starting and also have to get a hot streak going early. If you don't get your starts, you’re found out and that's what the great thing is about this format.

Don’t be fooled into assuming those players with great double out stats in conventional darts will naturally be the best starters. Those stats can go out of the window a little bit because I can’t emphasise enough how hitting a double at the start and end of legs are totally different types of pressure.

The feeling of finishing a leg is not the same as needing to hit one just to start scoring. This is why experience of this format is more of a strength than it would be in standard straight-start darts.

Debutants don’t tend to do well, unless they have a lot of experience from playing it locally such as Chris Dobey and Glen Durrant in the North East. But, more on that later.

Also, look out for players who are very strong at their favourite finishing double of choice – because they can obviously choose those to start on rather than just picking double top because it scores the most.

That said, James Wade is traditionally so strong at this because his preference is tops and he’s so, so strong on it. Michael van Gerwen is superb at tops and also 16s, so he can go to different portions of the board if his first choice isn’t going to plan.

Overall, this is a brilliant major and my personal favourite. I genuinely thought I was going to win in 2012, when I would have played MVG in the semi-finals had I hit bullseye against Wes Newton.

I’d have loved to have played him back then at the very start of his major-winning era because six months later I beat him 6-2 in a European Tour event.

There’s no reason to say I couldn’t have got past MVG and faced Mervyn but there’s no way the Irish crowd would have pitched for me against him in the same way they did for Michael. And that did have a huge impact on that final.

QUARTER ONE

• (1) Michael van Gerwen v Krzysztof Ratajski
• Jose De Sousa v Devon Petersen
• (8) James Wade v Mervyn King
• Adrian Lewis v Chris Dobey

Devon’s recent success means he’s now going to get a lot more exposure to longer format tournaments in the coming months and years although he has won matches at the World Championship in the past.

The shorter format straight start is his wheelhouse at the moment and while the first couple of rounds at the World Grand Prix are pretty short – albeit set-play - the most important thing bar none is getting off quickly at the start of each leg.

If you don't get off within the first couple of darts, you're going to get bitten, especially against someone like Jose De Sousa who is brilliant at double-start. He may not have shown it yet, but he’s waiting to hit his stride in this format.

This section of the draw makes you dizzy just looking at it, with all its possibilities! People were putting their heads in their hands as the draw was unfolding thinking this quarter is ridiculous.

Aside from five-time winner Michael van Gerwen against mega dangerous Ratajski, you’ve got someone who has made the final of the World Grand Prix – Mervyn King – against someone who has won it twice in James Wade. That’s a former Premier League final and a former Masters final too.

Devon Petersen and Jose De Sousa are two of the hottest players on the planet and on top of all that you have the experience of Adrian Lewis playing Chris Dobey, who is performing very well just now.

This quarter will get everyones focus but it’s also why I’m ultimately going to pick a player away from it to lift the trophy.

There's no easy games, but you do have to look deeper in a draw like this because based on form and statistics that top quarter is stacked. Whoever comes through it is going to feel like they've survived the apocalypse.

That’ll obviously make someone feel very good, but they are also going to use up a lot of physical and mental energy just to reach the semi-finals – potentially more than those in the other sections.

It’s so hard to pick a quarter winner from this section – I don’t even know who will win the first game between MVG and Ratajski!

I don’t think Van Gerwen will get through the whole quarter because his form has been so erratic, while the red-hot Petersen has so little experience in this format.

Therefore I think the winner of this quarter will come from James Wade v Mervyn King, who both have a wealth of experience, and I’m going to edge for Merv. He’ll have a plan to start on 16s, he’s lost weight, he looks energetic, he played well at the weekend in Germany and he likes playing one match per day. Also, remember that he only got into this event late via the Pro Tour list, and he will feel like playing this tournament is a bonus.

QUARTER TWO

• (4) Michael Smith v Dimitri Van den Bergh
• Mensur Suljovic v Dirk van Duijvenbode
• (5) Rob Cross v Gary Anderson
• Danny Noppert v Ryan Searle

Rob Cross against Gary Anderson has to go down as one of the ties of the round when you think about what they’ve achieved. But when you look back at Rob’s career, his record in double-start darts isn’t good at all.

Rob has therefore got a lot of boxes to tick in this tournament so Anderson could exploit that. He’s strong in every format and has reached the final of the World Grand Prix before.

Gary chose not to take part in the Autumn Series or the World Series of Darts Finals and although that means he’s missed out on match practice, he’ll have got himself fully prepared for this by resting.

I expect him to not only come through that game but also the whole quarter as well.

Michael Smith is pretty good at double-start and has experience and explosiveness on his side to get through his mini section - but we don’t know about Dimitri Van den Bergh because it's his debut and the same can be said of Dirk van Duijvenbode.

Mensur Suljovic could be a spoiler but he’s lacking sharpness right now and hasn’t done enough to peak my interest.

Danny Noppert is playing well – as we saw at the weekend – but he looks incredibly fit and sharp. If anyone is going to spoil it for Anderson, I believe it will be him.

Let's not forget Gary, he plays down his desire in this game, but there will be a little Leprechaun on his shoulder saying: “Come on Gary, you haven't won this one before, or the Grand Slam. Get it done before you retire.”

That will cement his legacy if he wins these two tournaments and this will be on his mind, whether he openly admits it or not.

QUARTER THREE

• (2) Peter Wright v Ryan Joyce
• Dave Chisnall v Glen Durrant
• (7) Daryl Gurney v Joe Cullen
• Jonny Clayton v Ian White

Peter Wright is a strong favourite for me in this quarter and I believe he’s so dangerous in this format. He’s so accurate at different doubles on the board and will have a plan to get this title won for the first time in his career.

He's been given a good first round draw against Ryan Joyce, who has not been in form since winning a maiden Players Championship title at the Summer Series.

As for Dave Chisnall v Glen Durrant, that’s as hard as any to call!

Chizzy looked a lot better at weekend after a suspect Autumn Series so you’ve got to admire the way he’s rebounded. If it wasn't for Jonny Clayton, he would have made the final.

However, Duzza loves double-start darts even though the vast majority of fans won’t have seen him play much of it in either the BDO or PDC.

It's one of those things about the North East of England - they play a lot of double start darts so they’re all very versed in it. That's why Dobey and Duzza both made the semi-finals on their debuts last year.

The local league that I used to play with Chris's dad Gordon was double start 501, so it's very prevalent in local stuff in the North East. This is a format that makes people excited not just because it's unpredictable, but there are certain players out there who have played it more than others.

From my experience, there’s a lot more double start darts in the North than there is in the South of the UK.

We even had a tournament where it was nominated double start – you had to spin a dial to see which double you had to hit to start!

This is why I think Duzza will be very strong against Chizzy – although don’t forget he’s reached the final twice.

Daryl Gurney has won the tournament before, Joe Cullen hasn’t really gone deep in it while Jonny Clayton is in great form right now.

When he’s hot, he continues to be hot for some time so this is a horrible draw for Ian White, who has struggled to reach his best since darts returned to action.

Overall, I’m going for Wright to win this quarter and also to go on and lift the title.

The standard he’s consistently been playing all season, his confidence at any format and also how close he’s come to winning this in the past makes me feel he’s the man to beat.

Even during his defeats of late he’s played too a good standard – such as averaging over 101 against Clayton at the German Darts Championship this weekend.

QUARTER FOUR

• (3) Gerwyn Price v Jermaine Wattimena
• Brendan Dolan v Kim Huybrechts
• (6) Nathan Aspinall v Gabriel Clemens
• Jamie Hughes v Stephen Bunting

Jermaine Wattimena may have been handed one of the toughest draws against Gerwyn Price but he’s going to fancy this based on his performance in the recent Home Tour 2.

He picked up 10 points from 12 and looked pretty decent at the German Darts Championship before losing to an on-fire Mervyn King with a good performance.

Jermaine has chalked up some good wins in the Grand Prix before and made the quarter-finals, so this is a format he will feel comfortable with.

When you play someone of his talent and speed, he can make an opponent feel very dizzy very quickly and if he gets a good start and he takes the first set, then Price is going to be in trouble in this game. The fact there is a break after set one might help Price in that possible situation.

Another potential spoiler for Price and Nathan Aspinall in this quarter is Brendan Dolan because he will upset everyone’s pace. He’s got a good history with double-start darts as everyone knows and has found form at an Autumn Series event by reaching the semi-finals.

His first match is against Kim Huybrechts, who knows he’s been quite fortunate just to qualify.

Jamie Hughes and Stephen Bunting are still searching for form, Gabriel Clemens has been a bit patchy, and therefore I think Aspinall will get through to the quarters from that mini section.

But as far as the whole quarter is concerned, there’s just something about Jermaine and if he can get past Price then maybe that will elevate his game and confidence to a new level and reach a major semi-final for the first time.

SEMI-FINAL PREDICTIONS

• Mervyn King v Gary Anderson
• Peter Wright v Jermaine Wattimena

If these two bold predictions do happen then there’s going to be a final I want – which is King v Wright.

I’d love to see King win a PDC major before he retires and the ultimate story after so many near-misses, including losing to MVG in the final here, losing to Wade in the Masters and Premier League finals and also losing to me at the Players Championship Finals, would be to beat Wright for this title.

They’ve known each other for 30 years and gone through so much together. If King was to beat Wright in the final, there would be tears from both of them for genuine happiness. Mark my words.

That said, an all-Scottish final between Anderson and Wright would be tremendous, with both players trying to win it for the first time, before they go for the Premier League title days after.

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