Richard Mann previews Friday's night offering from The Hundred, before assessing the current state of play with the Man of the Match markets.
Cricket tips: The Hundred, Welsh Fire v Trent Rockets, August 6
2pts Ben Duckett top Welsh Fire batsman at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
The Hundred was always going to take a little bit of working out and that certainly seems to be the case right now. After a couple of weeks’ cricket, the conundrums keep coming, for all I do there think there are some interesting angles that might be worth exploring further down the line.
The first point to make is that getting a good grasp on the runs lines isn’t proving that easy, with scores varying considerably from match to match and ground by ground. Having served up a raging turner for the match between Manchester Originals and Birmingham Phoenix at the end of last month, it will be interesting to see what Old Trafford offers on Thursday night.
It was that match that might have persuaded bettors that scores were generally going to get lower as the summer progresses and squares get more and more tired, but things have picked up since with the Phoenix chasing down in 173 against Oval Invincibles on Wednesday.
Fire and Rockets full of runs
Cardiff produced a good batting surface when Welsh Fire made 165-4 early in the tournament and with Trent Rockets and their star-studded top order visiting Wales on Friday night, I would be wary of playing unders in this one. In fact, the 7/4 on offer with Sky Bet for both teams to score 150 runs in the match has dangled the carrot somewhat, given the strength of batting in the ranks of both sides.
Fire can’t call upon Jonny Bairstow for now, but BEN DUCKETT has been in blistering form – 191 runs and counting in four matches – while we know how dangerous the likes of Tom Banton, Glenn Phillips and James Neesham can be.
Still, after a promising start, Fire have lost their last two and now face a Rockets outfit who have won three of their first four matches and are now favourites to go all the away. Alex Hales and D’Arcy Short have each made a couple of significant contributions already, while Dawid Malan – the third blaster of the Rockets’ big three – has looked in typically excellent touch for his two fifties.
With Rashid Khan leading their bowling attack, it’s easy to see why the Rockets are general 4/6 favourites for this one, for all their middle order could be vulnerable if they lose early wickets. However, with that top three, and Malan so adept at holding things together, it’s just hard to see the middle order getting tested too often.
In terms of bet, I’m not too interested in trying to choose between the Rockets big guns – even though my preference would invariably be for the more risk-averse Malan in any top batsman markets – but for the hosts, DUCKETT looks a standout and the 7/2 on offer with Sky Bet is not to be sniffed at.
As already alluded to, Duckett has enjoyed a strong start to The Hundred and his one top score for the Fire might have been three had it not been for the aforementioned Bairstow pipping him twice.
There will be no Bairstow for company on Friday and given his adeptness at playing spin, and the fact he is a left-hander and thus, ought to find Rashid that bit easier to deal with, he ticks plenty of boxes. Furthermore, with many of his Fire colleagues more renowned for producing rapid cameos, Duckett appeals as the safer play if he again looks to control the innings from number three.
Man of the Match betting in focus
As mentioned at the top of the piece, there might be further avenues to explore as the competition develops and the Man of the Match market is one that interests me. Unlike for other tournaments and series’, the Man of the Match for The Hundred is eventually decided by a social media vote and it is certainly changing the normal rules for betting on this market.
🚨 @Will_Smeed has just scored 20 runs from four balls! 🚨
— The Hundred (@thehundred) August 1, 2021
Birmingham is bouncing! 🥳#TheHundred pic.twitter.com/b5DLDgFb1z
In T20 cricket, you generally want to be with a batsman from the winning side, more often than not the top scorer or someone who finishes not out. But in The Hundred, things have been different. Will Smead’s 36 from 13 balls earned him the gong for Birmingham Phoenix recently, despite him not top scoring in the match, nor even for his own team, and teammate Moeen Ali making nearly as many runs and delivering a fine spell with the ball in the first innings. Smead's hand was clearly a fine one, but it didn't win his side the match. More crucial cameo than match-winning.
Smead’s victory is one such example, Chris Jordan winning Man of the Match for a two-wicket haul a few days ago another, and the key to picking up social media votes appears to be style over over substance: a calculated half-century isn’t turning The Hundred voters on as much as a rapid 30 full of big hits does.
Crucially, though, most awards are being handed out for contributions in the second innings. Perhaps it is a microcosm of modern society; that people’s attention spans aren’t broad enough to think back an hour to the first innings. The here and now; the crash, bang wallop – that’s what The Hundred punters appear to appreciate most.
What does this mean for betting purposes and how can we make it pay? In truth, I’m not quite sure yet, but I’ll be watching as the matches progress and suspect high-action, high-impact players will continue to be favoured over the type of reliable operators that would usually be top of most bettors' lists.
Published at 1530 BST on 05/08/21
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
