Royal London One-Day Cup betting preview & tips

Recommended bets: One-Day Cup

1pt e.w. Northants at 18/1 - limited-overs specialists look a well-rounded outfit

1pt e.w. Kent at 22/1 - proven performers at this level & have made a strong start to 2017

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Format

It wouldn’t be county cricket were a competition’s format to stay the same so there’s more change for the 2017 renewal, albeit only small.

While the county game’s one-day tournament remains a 50-over one and also keeps its North and South groups that were present last season (each side playing the other once), only the top three will now qualify for the knockout stage. The top four went through in 2016.

There’s a big incentive for teams to top the group – each pool winner will secure a home semi-final. The teams finishing second will host those finishing third in two ‘quarter-finals’ to determine the other two semi-finalists.

The other key change which punters need to consider is the tournament’s schedule. Last year it was played in the second half of the season. This year, it’s in the first half – a la the halcyon days of the old Benson and Hedges Cup, God rest its smoky soul.

Group matches will be played from April 27 to May 17. The quarter-finals will be held on June 13, the semis on June 16/17 and the final, at Lord’s, on July 1.

Those dates largely avoid England’s ODIs so some international stars are likely to be made available for certain games.

The national team play Ireland on May 5 and 7 but their series with South Africa is staged from May 24-29 and the Champions Trophy (June 1-18) will only affect the QFs and SFs and its group stage finishes on June 12.

History

What does the brief history of the One-Day Cup tell us?

Since becoming a 50-over tournament in 2014, it has had three different winners – Durham (2014), Gloucestershire (2015) and Warwickshire (2016).

Surrey have lost in the last two finals, while Warwickshire have also appeared in two (as well as winning last season they lost to Durham in 2014).

In terms of a North/South split, that’s two winners and one runner-up from the current North Group and one winner from two runners-up from the South.

Only last season was the group stage played on a regional basis (so hardly a great study sample) but for what it’s worth there was no geographical imbalance – the final was a North v South affair while the semis were made up by two teams from each side of the divide.

Across the three years of 50-over play, only three counties have qualified on every occasion for the knockout stages – Essex, Kent and Yorkshire – although none has appeared in a final.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly for those looking to place their bets on the 2017 event, it is worth noting that the side to amass the most points in the group stage is yet to win the trophy.

Last year that team was Somerset (lost in SF to Warwickshire). In 2015 Surrey lost in the final and in 2014 both Yorkshire and Essex won 12 points only to then lose in the last eight.

The conclusion here is you are looking for a team who can qualify from the group – they don’t necessarily have to be the dominant force early on.

That said, the new rule which sees the winners play one game less than those finishing second and third does now give them a significant advantage when it comes to the knockout stage.

North Group verdict

This group was as tight as a drum last season with five teams finishing with nine points and three more with seven.

That suggests some of the longer-odds shots could be worthy of support, certainly in back-to-lay terms.

Worcestershire, beaten quarter-finalists last year, will fit the bill for some. They have a strong overseas player for 50-over cricket in Australian all-rounder John Hastings. In ODI cricket, he averages under 30 with the ball at an economy rate of just 4.97. On the batting front, it’s an average of 27.10 at a strike rate of 99.

He should add strength to a team which performed pretty well in this competition last year and after a flying start in the County Championship confidence at New Road will be high. They are worth considering at 28/1.

However, Northants look a more rounded outfit. They topped this tight section last season before losing off the last ball of their quarter-final.

Ben Duckett led the way with the bat, amassing 443 runs. England have since come calling so Duckett won’t be available for every game here but he’s not in their Champions Trophy squad so will surely be allowed to play fairly often.

In any case, Northants were no one-man show. Josh Cobb and Rob Keogh both topped 300 runs in 2016, while all-rounder Rory Kleinveldt also impressed.

On the bowling front, Graeme White claimed 18 wickets and was ably supported by Richard Gleeson (13) and Mohammad Azharullah (12).

As the distinction between Twenty20 and 50-over cricket continues to blur, the T20 Blast champions look a good price at 18/1.

At the top of the market, I’m prepared to overlook tournament favourites Yorkshire, who look plenty short enough at 7/1 despite their strong record in terms of reaching the latter stages.

They have no fewer than five players in England’s Champions Trophy squad, including Liam Plunkett and David Willey, both of whom played big parts last term with the ball. They’ll like play some games but Yorkshire will need again to lean heavily on their squad.

The batting is minus Travis Head (277 runs in four games last term) and while Peter Handscomb has the ability to fill those shows, he’s still settling in at Headingley.

For me, holders Warwickshire hold better claims at a bigger price.

Sam Hain and Jonathan Trott were the only players to score more than 500 runs in the competition last season, with Ian Bell and Tim Ambrose also making strong contributions with the bat. That quartet helps make a good batting line-up once again.

However, it is with the ball where the Bears really hurt teams last season, notably by having two of the most miserly bowlers in the county game – Jeetan Patel and Rikki Clarke. Both had economy rates under the high-standard mark of five and regularly reel teams in.

Patel’s ability to do so in the middle overs of an innings is well-known but it has also caught the eye of the New Zealand selectors once more. If Warwickshire are lucky, he’ll play virtually a full part in the campaign. However, he could miss several games – including the quarter- and semi-finals. That, plus the fact that the coaching set-up has changed since last season with Ashley Giles now the man in charge, is enough to put me off backing them.

Finally, for anyone considering backing Durham, it is worth remembering they start the group stage on minus two points – a penalty imposed by the ECB over their financial position. In what could again be a very tight group, that’s a notable handicap.

South Group

Of the southern sides, only Glamorgan are rated as having a worse chance of success than Kent and I just can’t have that.

The men from the Garden of England have qualified for the knockout stages in all three years of this competition’s existence and their experienced bunch of county cricketers has the nous to ensure that run continues.

Second in the section last year, Kent have a very strong top order where the hard-hitting Daniel Bell-Drummond (332 runs last term) can again be expected to shine. The talented Sam Northeast may well open with him again, while Joe Denly is another class act at this level.

On the bowling front, no-one took more RLODC wickets last season than Matt Coles, while the seemingly ageless Darren Stevens went for barely four runs an over and has again made a fine start to the Championship season – something that can actually be said about the team as a whole (it’s three wins from three so far for our ante-post picks in division two).

Throw in another economical pest, former England spinner James Tredwell, plus recent overseas signing Wayne Parnell and Kent have the package to go well.

Their price of 22/1 doesn’t do them justice and they should be backed.

Essex are the other team in this section who always qualify for the latter stages but that record may be in doubt this term. While their batting remains a strength, they will surely miss Jesse Ryder’s big-hitting (he made 435 runs for them last season), while another significant absentee in 2017 is the now-retired Graham Napier, the club’s leading wicket-taker with 12 last term. They can be swerved.

Surrey are the shortest-priced team in the group and, with their new signings have started life well at The Oval in the longer format of the game, they may well be able to make it third time lucky after losing in the last two finals.

However, as ever, there’s little value around in terms of backing them. 9/1 is pretty short about a team who do lose the runs of Steven Davies (396 last season; now at Somerset) and won’t see as much of England’s Jason Roy (387) this term.

Don’t get me wrong, with Jade Dernbach leading the attack and the Curran brothers likely to feature prominently, they are likely to be a force but the competition for a top-three slot is likely to be fierce and it is worth noting that Surrey only finished fourth in 2016.

Similar things can be said about Somerset – last year’s semi-finalists have plenty of talent at their disposal and had the best record of any team in last season’s group stage, winning six of their eight games.

The difference with the Cidermen is they’ve made a disappointing start to the season in the Championship. Maybe the change of format is just what they need but if the malaise continues it will be difficult for them to recover and make the top three given things are being fought out over just eight games.

Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports will show selected matches.

Posted at 1615 BST on 25/04/17.