Ian Ogg reiterates Dave Tickner's advice as he previews England's Champions Trophy game against New Zealand at Cardiff.
Recommended bets: England v New Zealand
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At the time of writing one weather forecast for Cardiff offers the following:
"Tuesday will see a mixture of sunny spells and blustery showers, with hail and thunder possible. The showers tending to ease overnight. Windy with the risk of gales."
Monday's forecast was significantly worse with rain 'becoming heavy and persistent' so the outfield is likely to be wet and Duckworth-Lewis seems more than likely to come into play.
The Black Caps have already been involved in one 'no result' game at Edgbaston against Australia where captain Kane Williamson dominated his side's 291 with a fine hundred.
New Zealand had the upper hand when rain brought proceedings to a premature end with Australia 55-3 after nine overs in pursuit of a rain-adjusted total of 235 from 33 overs.
Their formidable seam attack had hit their straps whereas Aussie captain Steve Smith lamented: "We bowled both sides of the wicket and it was pretty ordinary."
That certainly enabled Luke Ronchi to open his arms with the former Australian international striking 65 from just 33 balls. He forms a dangerous opening partnership with Martin Guptill with the pair capable of getting the Kiwis off to a very fast start.
England have concerns with their bowling attack with Chris Woakes ruled out and Ben Stokes carrying a knock. They carry plenty of attacking threat but the ability to build pressure and control are arguably more of an issue and Bangladesh put themselves in a strong position in the opening game before faltering in the final overs.
In that game, colleague Dave Tickner tipped Liam Plunkett to be top match bowler at 8/1 and although that price he has been trimmed, his odds to top England's bowlers remains at 4/1. The case can be found here and remains valid; he should get plenty of opportunities against the middle to lower order if employed later in the innings as is usually the case.
These two teams have met 14 times in ODIs in England in the last decade and the Black Caps have the edge with seven wins to six with one no result. England won three out of five in 2015 and have made rapid strides as a one-day side since then but it is highly questionable whether match odds of 1/2 make any great appeal, particularly in a game where the weather seems certain to play a hand.
Both sides will attack from the off and while Jason Roy and Alex Hales have more runs in them than Guptill and Ronchi, the latter's all or nothing approach could enable to get the Kiwis off to a fast start as it did at Edgbaston while they have Williamson to come at three and Ross Taylor at four in a top-heavy order.
Some firms are odds-on each of two in the highest scoring side over the first 15 overs but New Zealand are reasonably widely available at 11/10 and that's a price that makes appeal.
England's openers are hardly shrinking violets but could have their work cut out against Trent Boult and Tim Southee whereas Mark Wood and presumably either Steve Finn or David Willey may be that bit more vulnerable.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports 2, 1000 BST
Posted at 1523 BST on 05/06/17.
