Cricket expert Richard Mann has picked out his best bets ahead of the forthcoming Test series between New Zealand and England.
Recommended bets: New Zealand v England Test match series
2pts Neil Wagner Top New Zealand Series Wicket Taker at 3/1
2pts New Zealand to win the series at 5/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The final act of England’s marathon tour of Australia and New Zealand begins in the early hours of Thursday morning with a two-Test series against the Kiwis getting underway with a day-night match at Eden Park.
England’s humbling 4-0 Ashes defeat to Australia leaves Trevor Bayliss’ side under pressure with the likes of James Vince, Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes and Stuart Broad all needing to reastablish themselves ahead of a big summer.
The recent Ashes campaign was a tale of familiar woes for England with the batsmen failing to make enough big hundreds and the bowlers – James Anderson apart – lacking penetration on flat wickets with the Kookaburra ball.
It will be a big few weeks for Vince who, as always, displayed a great deal of promise in Australia but finished the series with 242 runs at a modest average 26.88.
With his overall average just hovering above 20, with no hundreds and only two fifties from 12 games, Vince knows that this will be his final chance to salvage a Test career that England are desperate to see succeed as they try to find someone capable of taking ownership of the troublesome number three spot that Jonathan Trott made his own for so long.
Vince isn’t the only one with a point to prove, though. Moeen Ali will play his 50th Test for England this week but he endured a miserable time Down Under, his off-spin bowling ruthlessly exposed by the aggressive Australians and his batting, so often his trump card, looking fragile in the face of some hostile bowling.
Neil Wagner and Trent Boult will ensure his technique against the short ball is tested again and the New Zealand batting line up boasts enough fine players of spin to exert plenty of pressure on his bowling.
As ever, England captain Joe Root leant heavily on Anderson throughout the Ashes series and the 35-year-old delivered more overs than any other seamer on either side.
Anderson was the only Englishman to average under 30 with the ball, his 17 wickets coming at 27.82, finally dispelling any doubts about his ability to succeed on foreign soil without his trusty Dukes ball in hand.
He requires support, though, with Chris Woakes still needing to prove that for all he is a fine all-round cricketer, he can justify his place as England’s third seamer away from home.
He may be given a chance with the new ball over the next weeks and it will be interesting to see how he responds to that added responsibility.
Should that be the case, it will see the breaking up of the Anderson/Broad new-ball partnership that has served England so well over the years, though the latter appears to have responded well to the possible demotion – Broad has reportedly worked really hard on his action since the Ashes and bowled impressively in the last warm-up game again a New Zealand XI that had Martin Guptill in its ranks.
For Broad, this week is set to be a special one as he currently sits on 399 Test wickets and he recently spoke of his desire to be a big part of England’s success going forward.
Broad said: “I want to be the person you turn to when you need something exciting to happen – let’s try and break this Test match open.
“That’s how I’ve played my cricket, and it actually influenced some of the changes I made in February.”
“I’ve got that buzz back.”
“I’m desperate to get 400, but regardless of the individual wickets, I think over a long period of time it’s proof that I’ve put a lot of dedication into it.
“Of course, it would be a very nice club to join."
Mark Stoneman is still to register a hundred since making his Test debut last summer and for all he looks the real deal at the top of the order, he will know he needs a big score in the next few weeks.
Similarly, Root will be desperate to improve his own conversion rate that currently places him some way below his contemporaries, Virat Kohli, Steve Smith and his opposing captain this week, Kane Williamson.
Williamson leads a New Zealand side that has a settled look to it with Boult, Wagner and Tim Southee expected to prove a real handful to the visitors’ batting line up, especially under lights at Eden Park.
Boult and Southee are the headline bowling acts in that attack but England would do well to pay close attention to the threat posed by Wagner, a wholehearted cricketer who has enjoyed a terrific time of it of late.
The left-arm quick has taken 41 wickets at an impressive average of 21.04 since the start of 2016, revelling in the role of the team enforcer, and his aggressive attitude and sharp bouncer will certainly test England’s mettle over the next few weeks.
At 3/1, he looks overpriced and could prove a good bet with his England’s lower order not expected to fancy his method of attack too much.
First Test Sky Bet odds
New Zealand’s batting has a sound, if unspectacular, look to it, the impressive Tom Latham expected to lay a solid foundation up top for the likes of Williamson and Ross Taylor to build on.
With BJ Watling and Colin de Grandhomme pencilled in to come in at 6 and 7, they have a dangerous middle order to try and match England’s impressive engine room.
Williamson might well lay claim to being the best batsman on either side and his impressive career numbers, 17 Test-match hundreds at 50.62, certainly make impressive reading, though team-mate, Taylor, boasts similarly strong statistics and was in terrific form in the recent ODI series.
News that he has been passed fit for this game will be a big boost to the home side and with Williamson currently priced up at 11/5 to make the most series runs for New Zealand, Taylor certainly makes some appeal at 7/2 in that market.
However, at the current prices, I’m happier suggesting a second bet on New Zealand winning the series at 5/2.
The home side pushed England’s excellent ODI team all the way in their recent series and the visitors are well aware that the test team is some way behind their limited overs outfit.
It has been an awfully long tour for England’s players, despite the break enjoyed by the Test specialists after the Ashes, and question marks remain over a batting line up that is still so heavily reliant and Root and Alistair Cook.
Root must shrug off his frustrating habit of failing to reach three figures while the Kiwis will be hopeful that Boult will be able to cause Cook as many problems a fellow left-armer, Mitchell Starc, did in Australia. The pink ball in Eden Park gives Boult every opportunity to do just that.
With Stoneman and Vince under pressure, and Ben Stokes making his first apearance in whites since last summer, New Zealand have a more reliable look to them and look good value against an England side that hasn't really cracked the longer form of this game in the last few years.
New Zealand v England - Stat Attack:
Only South Africa and Australia have won a Test Series in New Zealand since 2011, with England clinging on for a 0-0 draw when these two sides met on these shores back in 2013. New Zealand are 5/2 to win the forthcoming series.
Trent Boult and Tim Southee usually grab the headlines for New Zealand but Neil Wagner is a vital cog in the Kiwi attack and since the beginning of 2016, has taken 41 wickets at an impressive average of 21.04. Wagner is 3/1 to be the top New Zealand bowler in the series.
James Anderson remains the rock of England’s bowling but his record in New Zealand, 18 wickets at an average of 36.27, isn't up there with his usually high standards. Anderson's overall Test average is substantially better, his 523 wickets coming at only 27.40. Anderson is 2/1 to be England's top bowler in the series.
Ross Taylor has been a fabulous player for New Zealand over the years and has enjoyed a fine run of form since the start of 2017. Taylor has made 408 runs at 81.60 in that time, a fair rise on his overall career average of 48.04. Taylor is 7/2 to be New Zealand's top batsman in the series.
Posted at 1300 GMT on 21/03/18.
